Let’s have a look at the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to October data, Seattle-area home prices were:
Down 1.0% September to October.
Down 6.2% YOY.
Down 30.2% from the July 2007 peak
Last year prices fell 1.3% from September to October and year-over-year prices were down 4.1%.
No big surprise here. Expect continued declines through the fall and winter months at least.
Here’s an interactive graph of the year-over-year change for all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities, courtesy of Tableau Software (check and un-check the boxes on the right):
Again, DC and Detroit are the only two cities in YOY positive territory in the latest update. Meanwhile, after half the cities showed month-to-month gains in August, all but three are now in negative territory as of September.
Seattle moved from close to the bottom of the heap in month-over-month changes to the middle this month, while Atlanta continues to plummet.
Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of raw index data for all 20 cities.
In October, sixteen of the twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities experienced smaller year-over-year drops (or saw increases) than Seattle:
- Detroit at +2.5%
- Washington, DC at +1.3%
- Dallas at -0.6%
- Denver at -0.9%
- Boston at -1.1%
- Charlotte at -1.2%
- New York at -2.0%
- Cleveland at -2.4%
- Miami at -4.0%
- San Diego at -4.5%
- San Francisco at -4.7%
- Portland at -4.7%
- Chicago at -4.8%
- Los Angeles at -4.9%
- Phoenix at -5.1%
- Tampa at -6.1%
Just three cities were falling faster than Seattle as of Octboer: Minneapolis, Las Vegas, and Atlanta.
Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty cities through October.
Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve cities whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.
In the fifty-one months since the price peak in Seattle prices have declined 30.2%, a bit lower than last month, but still up 0.7 points above the low set back in February.
For posterity, here’s our offset graph—the same graph we post every month—with L.A. & San Diego time-shifted from Seattle & Portland by 17 months. San Diego, Portland, and Seattle all bumped up a bit in October, but Los Angeles continued to fall. Year-over-year, Portland came in at -4.7%, Los Angeles at -4.9%, and San Diego at -4.5%.
I think this graph is still worth posting if only to display how the government’s massive intervention in the market screwed with the natural flow, causing all the markets to rise simultaneously, and once the artificial support was removed, to come crashing back down to reality simultaneously.
Note: This graph is not intended to be predictive. It is for entertainment purposes only.
Check back tomorrow for a post on the Case-Shiller data for Seattle’s price tiers.
(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 12.27.2011)