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Case-Shiller Tiers: High Tier Takes a Hit, Still in the Black

Posted on April 25, 2012April 25, 2012 by The Tim

Let’s check out the three price tiers for the Seattle area, as measured by Case-Shiller. Remember, Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.

Note that the tiers are determined by sale volume. In other words, 1/3 of all sales fall into each tier. For more details on the tier methodologies, hit the full methodology pdf. Here are the current tier breakpoints:

  • Low Tier: < $228,037 (down 0.8%)
  • Mid Tier: $228,037 – $364,832
  • Hi Tier: > $364,832 (down 1.2%)

First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through February 2012.

Case-Shiller Tiered Index - Seattle

Here’s a zoom-in, showing just the last year:

Case-Shiller Tiered Index - Seattle

All three tiers took a predictable seasonal dip between January and February. While the low and middle tiers both only barely declined, the high tier dragged down the combined index. The low tier fell 0.3% MOM, the middle tier dropped 0.2%, and the high tier lost 1.5%.

Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from January 2003 through February 2012.

Case-Shiller HPI - YOY Change in Seattle Tiers

Flat for the high tier, but a strong improvement on both the other tiers. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of February – Low: -11.0%, Med: -5.1%, Hi: +0.1%.

Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted yesterday, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.

Case-Shiller: Decline from Peak - Seattle Tiers

Current standing is 43.6% off peak for the low tier, 35.9% off peak for the middle tier, and 28.9% off peak for the high tier. The middle and low tiers each set new post-peak low points, while the high tier remains just barely above its February 2011 low.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 04.24.2012)

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Case-Shiller: Yet Another New Low as Winter Wraps Up
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Home Price Second Derivative Continues to Increase

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