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Case-Shiller Tiers: Low Tier Finally Gets a Boost

Posted on June 27, 2012 by The Tim

Let’s check out the three price tiers for the Seattle area, as measured by Case-Shiller. Remember, Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.

Note that the tiers are determined by sale volume. In other words, 1/3 of all sales fall into each tier. For more details on the tier methodologies, hit the full methodology pdf. Here are the current tier breakpoints:

  • Low Tier: < $238,188 (up 2.4%)
  • Mid Tier: $238,188 – $377,643
  • Hi Tier: > $377,643 (up 2.3%)

First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through April 2012.

Case-Shiller Tiered Index - Seattle

Here’s a zoom-in, showing just the last year:

Case-Shiller Tiered Index - Seattle

The low tier finally stopped falling in April, and in fact turned in the biggest month to month gain. The low tier rose 2.0% MOM, the middle tier rose 1.3%, and the high tier gained 1.5%.

Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from January 2003 through April 2012.

Case-Shiller HPI - YOY Change in Seattle Tiers

Slight dip in the high tier (but still in the black), flat for the middle tier, and a big improvement for the low tier. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of April – Low: -8.7%, Med: -1.6%, Hi: +0.3%.

Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted yesterday, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.

Case-Shiller: Decline from Peak - Seattle Tiers

Current standing is 43.1% off peak for the low tier, 33.7% off peak for the middle tier, and 26.8% off peak for the high tier, all three tiers up off their lows.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 06.26.2012)

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Case-Shiller: Spring Accelerates for Seattle Home Prices
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King County Home Prices & Affordability 1950 – Q2 2012

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