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Case-Shiller Tiers: Low Tier Hits Break-Even

Posted on October 31, 2012 by The Tim

Let’s check out the three price tiers for the Seattle area, as measured by Case-Shiller. Remember, Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.

Note that the tiers are determined by sale volume. In other words, 1/3 of all sales fall into each tier. For more details on the tier methodologies, hit the full methodology pdf. Here are the current tier breakpoints:

  • Low Tier: < $256,839 (up 0.2%)
  • Mid Tier: $256,839 – $411,182
  • Hi Tier: > $411,182 (up 0.4%)

First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through August 2012.

Case-Shiller Tiered Index - Seattle

Here’s a zoom-in, showing just the last year:

Case-Shiller Tiered Index - Seattle

The seasonal slow-down is only affecting the middle and high tiers so far. Between July and August, the low tier rose 1.9%, the middle tier was flat, and the high tier lost 0.1%.

Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from January 2003 through August 2012.

Case-Shiller HPI - YOY Change in Seattle Tiers

Just as we predicted last month, the low tier inched back out of the red in August, hitting exactly the same point as August 2011. All three tiers are now officially no longer in decline. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of August – Low: 0.0%, Med: +1.9%, Hi: +4.6%.

Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted yesterday, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.

Case-Shiller: Decline from Peak - Seattle Tiers

Current standing is 38.9% off peak for the low tier, 29.6% off peak for the middle tier, and 22.5% off peak for the high tier.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 10.30.2012)

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Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Prices Up 3% From 2011
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