Let’s have a look at the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to January data, Seattle-area home prices were:
Down 0.5% December to January
Up 6.8% YOY.
Down 12.2% from the July 2007 peak
Last year at this time prices fell 0.8% month-over-month and year-over-year prices were up 11.9%.
Year-over-year price gains edged up in January despite prices falling month-over-month, since they fell less this year than last. In 2013 prices peaked in September and had fallen 1.7 percent by the following January. In 2014 prices peaked in July, and had declined by 1.2 percent as of January.
Here’s an interactive graph of the year-over-year change for all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities, courtesy of Tableau Software (check and un-check the boxes on the right):
Seattle’s position for month-over-month changes fell from #14 in December to #19 in January. Only San Francisco saw home prices drop more between December and January than they did in Seattle.
Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of raw index data for all 20 cities.
In January, five of the twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities gained more year-over-year than Seattle (one less than in December):
- Denver at +8.4%
- Miami at +8.3%
- Dallas at +8.1%
- San Francisco at +7.9%
- Portland at +7.2%
Fourteen cities gained less than Seattle as of January: Las Vegas, Tampa, Los Angeles, San Diego, Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Detroit, Phoenix, Chicago, Minneapolis, New York, Cleveland, and Washington.
Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty cities through January.
Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve cities whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.
In the ninety months since the price peak in Seattle prices have declined 12.2%.
Lastly, let’s see what month in the past Seattle’s current prices most compare to. As of January 2015, Seattle prices are still closest to where they were in March 2006.
Check back tomorrow for a post on the Case-Shiller data for Seattle’s price tiers.
Next, let’s check out the three price tiers for the Seattle area, as measured by Case-Shiller. Remember, Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.
Note that the tiers are determined by sale volume. In other words, 1/3 of all sales fall into each tier. For more details on the tier methodologies, hit the full methodology pdf. Here are the current tier breakpoints:
- Low Tier: < $280,516 (down 1.0%)
- Mid Tier: $280,516 – $446,188
- Hi Tier: > $446,188 (down 1.0%)
First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through January 2015.
Here’s a zoom-in, showing just the last year:
The middle tier lost the most ground month-over-month in January, as the high tier marked its sixth month of declines in a row.
Between December and January, the low tier decreased 0.2%, the middle tier fell 0.6%, and the high tier lost 0.5%.
Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from January 2003 through January 2015.
Year-over-year price growth increased in the low and middle tiers, but fell in the high tier. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of January – Low: +9.5%, Med: +6.4%, Hi: +6.2%.
Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted earlier this week, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.
Current standing is 19.9% off peak for the low tier, 14.2% off peak for the middle tier, and 9.4% off peak for the high tier.
(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 03.31.2015)