Let’s check in on the January NWMLS statistics from around the sound. We’re going to try something different this month. The usual collection of charts in this post tend to be a big spaghetti mess, so we’re going to keep it simple. If you want to see the usual charts, you can still download the…
Category: Statistics
Statistics, number-based analysis, etc.
Bottom-Calling: So Where’s the Bottom?
So, after analyzing five (or six) different forecast methods, slicing and dicing the data, and squeezing out as many predictions as we can in a week, we’re left with one simple question: Where is the bottom? Here’s a summary of the bottom months for each of the forecasts we looked at this week: Even if…
Bottom-Calling: San Diego Lag Forecast
As regular readers of Seattle Bubble are aware, one of the most popular (and simultaneously one of the most controversial) charts we publish on a regular basis is the “Behind the Cycle” graph, which shows the year-over-year changes in Seattle and Portland’s Case-Shiller HPIs offset by 17 months from the YOY changes in the HPIs…
Bottom-Calling: Affordability Index Forecast
The affordability index is something we have visited multiple times in the past on these pages. If the concept is new to you, or you just feel like a quick refresher, I recommend you check out the following posts: Seattle Soft Landing: Do The Math A Question Of Affordability Revisiting Seattle’s Soft Landing King County…
Bottom-Calling: Simple Mirror Forecast
As was noted back in October, graphs of the rise and fall of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index for a number of markets (e.g. San Diego and Seattle) is surprisingly symmetrical. I’ll be the first to admit that this method hardly qualifies as a rigorous scientific analysis of price trends. The apparent relationship between the…