LHR's Commute Sample

Lake Hills Renter

For the last year or so, I've been using my commute from Lake Hills to Microsoft as a sort of sampling of the area's housing market. It's been a pretty good indicator of the overall market IMO, so I'm curious to see how it plays out this spring.

The route is a roughly 3 mile commute along residential Bellevue and Redmond, primarily along 164th Ave and part of 40th St. I only count houses for sale or rent that are actually on the road itself, not down side streets, even if there's a sign on the main route pointing to it.

As of today (from memory) there's 3 houses for sale (one FSBO), and an additional one marked as sold recently. There are have been as many 9 for sale previously, in the summer of last year. There's also the new subdivision on 40th with three houses going up, but i'm not counting them at the moment.

I'll post updates here as things change.

Lake Hills Renter

Verified this morning -- three houses for sale, one of them FSBO posted as "newly remodelled". This same house sold around summer last year. It wasn't vacant all that time, but the advert smells like a flipper.

hesotriflin

Hi Lake Hills Renter,

I have pretty much the same commute as you, but mine is just down 156th. (Lake Hills to MSFT)

On my route there's been one house with a for sale sign for a few months now.

I've lived in Bellevue my whole life, and do remember a time in the mid-90s when you couldn't go 5 feet along 140th in the Bridle Trails neighborhood without seeing a For Sale sign. It will be interesting to see how this neighborhood fares when the bubble bursts.

Lake Hills Renter

Thanks for the partner report! One of the houses for sale on my route has not only been up for several months now, it was for sale last year as well. The sign went down without a sale and came back up a few months later. There are a couple of additional houses whose signs went down without a sale this winter that I am watching to see if they emerge for sale again. The house that is currently listed as sold sat on the market for at least three months, if not more. It seems to be a very slow churn.

Lake Hills Renter

I saw on the way home from work today that one of the houses on my route sold. It was up for the better part of six months, including a month long break during the winter. It's been up for at least the last two months consecutively. That leaves two for sale on my commute -- that's down from a high of nine for sale last summer.

I also noticed that the subdivision near campus has a new sign up. There are apparently 11 lots up for construction. Three houses have already started going up, and the one closest to completion has sold.

Lake Hills Renter

I noticed today that a condo went up for sale. That's 3 homes for sale on my route now (2 SFH, 1 condo), and 11 lots for sale in a subdivision being built. I've also noticed that rentals are going very fast. I've seen three different rent signs go up then come down again in a a day or two.

Lake Hills Renter

I got a better look at the subdivision's layout sign at lunch today and it looks like 3 of the 12 lots have sold. I have no idea how long ago they sold. There are only 4 houses that have been started, and the 3 that have sold are not a subset of the 4 that have started.

Total: 3 homes + 9 lots.

Lake Hills Renter

House at the end of my street went up.

Total: 4 homes + 9 lots.

Lake Hills Renter

A "for rent" sign lasted the weekend, so I'll add it to the mix. And it looks like one of the development houses/lots sold.

For Sale: 4 (3 SFH, 1 Condo)
For Rent: 1
Building: 8

Lake Hills Renter

Was out of town for a week, and there were some slight changes while I was gone. One new sale sign has gone up, and while the rent sign cam down, another one went up. The subdivision hasn't had any new sales, but the houses are going up very fast. Hope they aren't shoddy.

For Sale: 5 (4 SFH, 1 Condo)
For Rent: 1
Building: 8

Lake Hills Renter

I don't think anyone cares about this, but I'll update it nonetheless. The condo's sign went down without fanfare a few weeks ago, without ever having said "sold". But another sign has come up in a different area to replace it. The rent sign went down, but another one came up to replace it. None of the other houses have changed, including the new subdivision still under construction. They're getting the houses up pretty quickly, but according to the sign, nothing else has sold. Almost all of the houses seem either empty or staged, and I only ever see cars at them during the Sunday open houses. Some of them have been on the market for months. The house that sold several months ago still has it's sign up saying it sold, but no one has ever moved into it that I can tell.

For Sale: 5 (5 SFH)
For Rent: 1
Building: 8

sniglet

For what it's worth, the houses in my area near Marymoor park are selling really fast. One really cut house just a few blocks from mine had a sold sign up only a few days after the for-sale one went up.

Also, the listings for East Bellevue (98008) on ZipRealty are not rising anymore and staying in the low 60 range.

The only negative I notice is that there are a tonne of contractor signs up for individual homes they are building all around the area. In fact, I think the number of contractor signs are greater than broker for-sale ones.

Lake Hills Renter

Looks like I posted a few hours too early. The house sitting at "sold" for months is now back on the market. I guess the deal fel through.

For what it's worth, about half this commute is in 98008.

For Sale: 6 (6 SFH)
For Rent: 1
Building: 8

Lake Hills Renter

I noticed on the way to the store that another house went up for sale. This one had an open house this week, which was odd because there had been no sign until the open house. Now the sign is up. This same house was up for sale last year but the sign came down without ever having said sold, and with no evidence of anyone living there all winter.

For Sale: 7 (All SFH)
For Rent: 1
Building: 8

That's only 2 shy of last year's peak, hit in late summer.

finance

I call BS on your "random sample" of one mile from your house to work (or maybe a few miles)...how does this represent the Real Estate market for any such area. Epecially since you are only counting houses on the main roads.

Question: Do houses near the main roads sell for less than ones a block or two into a development? I would think so as there is less major traffic in front of your house and would seem more secure.

Lake Hills Renter

I call BS on your "random sample" of one mile from your house to work (or maybe a few miles)...

I'm not sure what "BS" there is to call. I'm simply keeping track of houses for sale on my commute to work, from my front door to the door of the building I work in. Simple as that. As I said at the beginning, it's a roughly three mile drive along reseidential Bellevue and Redmond, primarily 164th Ave and 40th St. Anyone can drive the same route and see the same houses. Lying about the numbers would accomplish nothing.

how does this represent the Real Estate market for any such area. Epecially since you are only counting houses on the main roads.

I think you misunderstand my intention. I'm not trying to prove some hypothesis or point. I'm watching a sample of data over a long period of time for trending. So far what I've seen in this sample does roughly correlate the regional inventory numbers as far as inventory and sales go, but your mileage may vary.

Question: Do houses near the main roads sell for less than ones a block or two into a development? I would think so as there is less major traffic in front of your house and would seem more secure.

I've never said anything about price or any other reason why these houses might be on the market for so long. I'm simply counting inventory. For all I know, they could all be dramatically overpriced, or they could be dramatically under priced but in very poor shape, or they could be priced fairly and the market just sucks. I don't know because I haven't looked. Feel free to look them up yourself if you are so inclined. It's irrelevent to my running sample of inventory.

The route does pass through areas of different house sizes and quality, from recently built two-story McMansions to old one-story houses in a poorer neighborhood and even some condos. I have noticed that condos are for sale a lot less this year than last year. And that roughly half the houses up right now were also up last year. But I have no data as to why.

The reason I chose only the main road is because it's much easier to track. I'd be a public menace trying to look down every side street for signs. I do look occasionally and there are indeed even more down the side streets, but since I can't watch them regularly I don't count them. It is just a sampling after all.

finance

LHR - I didnt mean to insult you personally in any way (I was being a little abrasive). It was more of having such a subjective and narrow sample.

One way I look at houses and inventory is on zipreality.com. I created a set search and look at it everyday. Currently since I own a condo I look at condos in the Seatte downtown area (QA, Capital Hill, 1st Hill...). This would allow you to create a good template for a set square mileage (you can track it by zipcode as well) and allow you to track houses in your neighborhood better and the numbers would be quantified into the avg price or inventory levels...just an interesting idea that you could report back to us.

In my narrow search of condos in the $200k - $350k market I have seen a decline in inventory ~350 condos in my daily search. This may have to do with rising prices as condos exceed the search limit, or that developers tend not to put them all on the MLS, so it should be taken with a grain of salt. However, prices for condos in relative size and location as mine have increased quite a bit over the past month compared to Jan, Feb & March...just an interesting observation. Afterall it is the "spring selling season"

Lake Hills Renter

No offense taken. Your points about a larger sample are well taken, and I don't necessarily disagree with them. But the reason I started doing this initially was because it was easy. If I was actually planning to buy in this area, I might be more interested in collecting wider and more detailed data, but I'm not. I may very well do what you suggest for the area I am interested in when I am looking to buy.

Since my commute does cut across several different types of areas, I do think it is somewhat indicitive of this part of the eastside, but I agree that it is not necessarily a reprentative of the entire area. And I have seen some correlation with the larger inventory and sales numbers, but that could just be coincidence. Either way, it's interesting and easy to watch as the year progresses. The fact there are only two houses less for sale in April as opposed to the peak for the entire last year (which was late summer if I remember correctly) is interesting to me. I also find it interesting that houses are staying on the market for a relatively long time, and the same houses are up again from last year. But again, your mileage may vary.

Lake Hills Renter

Couple of changes in the last few weeks (been too busy to update). One of the houses for sale is now tagged as sold. Still waiting to see if it actually sells, or goes back on the market again like the last one. Another house abruptly took its sign down for no discernable reason. Both were some of the more recent homes on the market.

For Sale: 5 (All SFH)
For Rent: 1
Building: 8

Lake Hills Renter

Looks like I was a little early no one house -- the one that lost it's sign apparently found it. It's back up again.

For Sale: 6 (All SFH)
For Rent: 1
Building: 8

Lake Hills Renter

I quit posting regular updates on this because, well...no one cares, including me lately. But I did pay attention on my commute this morning because there seem to be a lot of new signs up. My suspicion was correct, there are now 10 signs up in 3 miles, finally breaking the peak of 9 last year. And only 1 more of the new subdivision has sold, even though many more are close to completion.

For Sale: 10 (9 SFH, 1 Condo)
For Rent: 0
Building: 7

ayles

Reminds me of my twice daily drive down Market Street in Ballard. Recently 4 or 5 for for sale signs of have cropped up heading east. I think they are all on the N. side of the street.

in addition to that in the last week two houses across (next door to each other) from mine have gone up for sale. One has been sitting empty for a while and the sign was only up for a couple days. The other (nicer of the two) has had a sign for a little over a week.

Lake Hills Renter

I should say that some of these 10 homes have been on the market for roughly 6 months.

Lake Hills Renter

I've been on vacation for the last week (and have only marginally paid attention lately anyway), so I don't know how many houses are actually for sale on my route at the moment. But one very interesting thing I did see: the condo complex that has only ever sported 2 for sale signs simultaneously in the last 2 years that I've been watching....now has five.

Lake Hills Renter

Everyone's been talking about sold signs and fall inventory decline lately, so I just wanted to chime in here and say I haven't seen either on my route to work. There are still ~9 houses for sale in my 3 mile drive. That ties last year's peak and is just one or two below this year's peak. I haven't seen a sold sign in months, and as a matter of fact I haven't seen much change at all. Very few new signs come up and very few come down. Even the new subdivision that is almost finished still have 4 of its 11 houses available. The only real difference I've seen is the proportion of condos. Previosuly there were only 1-2 for sale on my route that were condos. Now there's 4-5.

The most extreme of all the properties is one house that has been on the market for the better part of 2 years. Yes, 2 years -- since I started watching. That's a lot of mortgage to eat. It's going to be an interesting winter.

Lake Hills Renter

I finally broke down and looked up the house that's been for sale for 2 years. I can see why now -- $550k?! Good god, that's outrageous. And that "103 days" may be how long it's been on Redfin, but I've been looking at the John L Scott sign for 2 years on my way to work.

Ironically, the day I posted the previous item about not seeing a winter inventory decline, the inventory started to decline. Several sgns came down without fanfare, and 1 or 2 of the condos actually found GFs. There's probably only 4 or 5 for sale now, from memory.

Markor

Lake Hills Renter wrote:

I finally broke down and looked up the house that's been for sale for 2 years. I can see why now -- $550k?! Good god, that's outrageous.

Hurry, there's an open house today! It would probably sell at $430K.

Lake Hills Renter

There's been an open house every Sunday for 2 years.

Lake Hills Renter

New record: 15 for sale signs in my 3 mile commute.

garth

I drive from maple leaf to the ship canal by the ballard bridge. Most houses seem to be turning over, but one group of houses on 80th has been cracking me up. This house has a real estate sign up:

http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/729-N- ... ome/301345

The houses on either side are posting up for sale signs they bought at fred meyer offering a better deal than the realtor sign. :P

For a long time I was continuously surprised that lot size seemed to matter little on houses ~$500,000, but these 3000 sq ft lots are going for much less now. That house sold for $445,000 in march of 2007.

deejayoh

garth wrote:

I drive from maple leaf to the ship canal by the ballard bridge. Most houses seem to be turning over, but one group of houses on 80th has been cracking me up. This house has a real estate sign up:

http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/729-N- ... ome/301345

The houses on either side are posting up for sale signs they bought at fred meyer offering a better deal than the realtor sign. :P

For a long time I was continuously surprised that lot size seemed to matter little on houses ~$500,000, but these 3000 sq ft lots are going for much less now. That house sold for $445,000 in march of 2007.

Wow. looking at a 10% loss in just over a year based on asking.
Date Price
Feb 28, 2008 $463,500
Mar 15, 2008 $449,000
May 28, 2008 $399,000

Source: NWMLSSales History Date Price Appreciation
Jun 30, 1989 $84,700 --
Sep 12, 2003 $261,000 8.2%/yr
Mar 12, 2007 $445,000 16.5%/