Which Inning

I just wanted to get a feel of how close to the bottom people think we are. Let's define the 1st inning as the very beginning of asset deflation and the 9th inning as the very bottom.

Stick with housing as the asset, unless you believe that a much larger bubble, of which housing is only a small part (leveraged derivatives of some flavor) is what is actually bursting.

Comments

  • I vote for 1st. Prices are just now nudging down. Since I predict 2013 for a bottom and the "game" started in mid 2007, we are now just getting ready for the 2nd inning.

    Caveat - My estimate is based on past performance of bubbles,...if this one takes down EVERYTHING then of course there will be no "bottom" and we'll either in some sort of new paradigm.
  • 2nd, but I couldn't vote for it. :?
  • 2nd, but I couldn't vote for it. :?

    sorry, I was going to add all innings, but figured odds were good enough.
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