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July '08 Forecasting thread

deejayohdeejayoh
edited August 2008 in Seattle Real Estate
We haven't had one of these in a while. I saw this post from Kary Krismer (who doesn't read Seattle Bubble but responds to posts here :D) and thought it might start some interesting conversation
July Isn't Shaping Up Too Well
Since getting blindsided by the low volume in December, this year I periodically check to see how the month is shaping up for King County SFR. Unfortunately, July isn't looking good at all! I first noticed this about a week ago, and the trend since then has not been good. While we won't know for sure until the NWMLS posts numbers, we might end up giving up all the gains of the last three months, or even more! Which raises the question of why?

Here are the last three months:
____Median/ Sales/ Inv
April $448.5k/ 1,840/11.4k
May $440.0k/ 1,766/ 12.3k
June $449.7k/ 1,965/ 11.9k


What's your guesstimate on Median, Inventory, and Sales?

My guesses:
Median: $435k (that's off nearly 10% from last July)
Sales: 2,000 (off 20%)
Inventory: 12,400

edit: added quotes around Kary's article

Comments

  • AlanAlan
    I think those predictions sound pretty reasonable.
  • deejayohdeejayoh
    Alan wrote:
    I think those predictions sound pretty reasonable.

    exactly the sort of scintillating debate I was hoping for :D

    I guess the numbers will be out on Weds?
  • bilirubenbiliruben
    I think you're a bit high on inventory. 1998, but not a moldy Ballard townhome more!
  • perfectfireperfectfire
    Maybe the answer to why is a 143% increase in foreclosures over the year before: viewtopic.php?p=13096#p13096
  • bilirubenbiliruben
    Speaking of mold, the massive 2007 McCraftsman next-door that ate the old modest rambler and most of it's yard, has had a mold extraction truck out front the last few days.

    Touring it when it was on the market, the finishes were beautiful. When it was going up, it looked like paper behind the walls, however. I'm not a contractor, but it didn't look like the quality I would want for 1.25M.
  • The_TimThe_Tim
    Well I was expecting the July MLS data to be posted today, but currently the NWMLS site is down:
    NWMLS is currently performing EMERGENCY SYSTEM maintenance on the systems.
  • bilirubenbiliruben
    The emergency is what could possibly be wrong with the numbers! They are showing double digit declines! Does not compute! Error. Error.
  • The_TimThe_Tim
    The Tim wrote:
    Well I was expecting the July MLS data to be posted today, but currently the NWMLS site is down:
    NWMLS is currently performing EMERGENCY SYSTEM maintenance on the systems.
    Argh. It's still down, but the numbers have been released to the papers already.

    Homes sales, prices fall around Puget Sound

    Their more public site nwrealestate.com is still up, but the pdfs on there are still June.
  • rose-colored-coolaidrose-colored-coolaid
    Don't know about that, but the president of Freddie Mac just predicted 20% declines nationwide. And this guy is obviously a cheerleader!

    One year ago, 20% was about the typical bubblehead's prediction. Actually, it was probably closer to 20%-30%. Still, I think that tells you something about just how deceptive bubbles really are. I mean, today a 30% total decline seems highly likely and if McFly traveled back in time and told me it'd actually be 40%+ declines I'd respond "Huh. Well, that sounds pretty reasonable."
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