Signs of a Recession

I personally believe that a massive recession is looming on the horizon, and I am concerned that our current economic shape may cause it to be an actual depression. This thread is for people to list evidence which they believe points to a recession. I'll start it off.

Exhibit a) Subprime collapse.
Exhibit b) Bond market collapse.
Exhibit c) Growth at a 0.7% (upwardly adjusted from 0.6%) rate for first quarter 2007
Exhibit d) Massive public anger with congress and president. We like to blame this on the war and immigration, but history tells us that it's economics that have the most impact on approval ratings.
Exhibit e) Stock market has hit a multi-peak pattern. This is were it touches a high, then drops, and then tests that same high again. Notice how ever couple days it either gains 150 points or looses 200 points? It's a signal that the market has peaked (at least) for the summer.

Comments

  • Rose...I agree with your statement that a recession is looming on the horizon. I also agree with what you stated in another thread WRT how will we pull ourselves out of it as we don't make anything anymore.

    When will it be official? I would have to answer "who knows?" as I think the gub doesn't really want us to think that we are in a recession even when it hits as it may tend to feed on itself.
  • About the time the the candiates for the 2008 election really start campaigning.
  • Exhibit c) Growth at a 0.6% rate for first quarter 2007
    Hey now, let's not be too hasty. 1st Quarter growth rate was adjusted up. To 0.7%.

    :wink:
  • There's that sarchasm again. Haven't you read your blog comments lately? ;)
  • I think we'll recognize we're in a recession once we have two quarters of negative GDP growth...

    Call me crazy. :)
  • The Tim wrote:
    Exhibit c) Growth at a 0.6% rate for first quarter 2007
    Hey now, let's not be too hasty. 1st Quarter growth rate was adjusted up. To 0.7%.

    :wink:

    Tim, I do not know what you are talking about. It's as plain as day in the post, that first quarter numbers are 0.7% up from an initial 0.6% estimate.

    I think we'll recognize we're in a recession once we have two quarters of negative GDP growth...

    Call me crazy. Smile

    You too with the sarcasm? OK, revision for anyone on the blog named carlislematthew, or who feels like that should be there name. Replace the word "recognize" with "two quarters of negative GDP growth".
  • There's that sarchasm again. Haven't you read your blog comments lately? ;)
    Dangit! I just can't stop myself!
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