I write with a team of real estate professionals on a local newpaper real estate blog. It is evident by some that hang out there and comment, they feel priced out of the real estate market.
As I discovered how much home you can buy in West Indianapolis by searching for homes on Paul Henry'sIndyWestUndressed blog. I was stunned. You can't buy much of a condo for $197,000 in my town. I suggested to our readers they consider relocating. Some responded they may have to.
It may be better just to move to an area where the salaries are higher, rather than where the houses are cheaper. Some of these guys tend to forget the other side of the affordability coin is income, and Seattle isn't exactly know for it's high incomes or growth in higher paying jobs.
When it came down to it, once I decided that I wasn't going to buy a house in Seattle in the near future, looking for a higher paying job out of state made a lot of sense.
Those calculators of expected long term returns are misleading. The average is brought up by outliers of where a very unlikely series of very high returns yields an astronomical number that pulls the average up. The median return is not quite as enticing considering the risk. I'm all in stock, but usually all in index funds. So I never have fun stories to tell, but I do quite well over the long term.
"Note: Ardell suggested that we close comments on Friday's Rates...and so I am giving it a whirl. The rates are being posted in order to provide information and to give you an idea of the direction mortgage interest rates are going. By closing the comments, the rates are effectively becoming a memo or "rate sheet". So if you do have a comment for me regarding rates or mortgage questions simply contact me by visiting another one of my post or send me an email."
I had very mixed feelings about closing comments at the time, however, as Jillayne mentioned previously, the comments were getting out of hand and off topic. With rates being published every Friday, it was as if people were counting the days to blast the post.
The main purpose of the posting the rates is to give people an idea of rate trends. I am actually opposed to posting rates since unless you're putting 20% down and have a 680 score or better and are full doc, those rates don't apply. And the rates may change the moment I post them.
I don't have a problem with you closing comments on the rates, Rhonda.
I bet if you open them again, however, you would find more on-topic posts these days.
With so many other posts that are more enticing to bubble-heads being posted, both on RCG as well as the PI Professionals blog, there is less need to stray off-topic with your rate posts.
Thanks for continuing to post them, comments or no!
So we're lemmings now. That's pretty disappointing coming from Kary, since he seemed one of the more level-headed over there. Seems to me the more lemming-like behavior would be just believing whatever the agents and lenders tell you, rather than looking at the market and numbers for yourself, but YMMV.
In Oregon discounting realtor fees on the buyer side is prohibited!!!
From that article:
In tougher times ( like now ), you will be using more and more of that income to market those homes.
Just how do they market effectively, besides the MLS, some signs, and flyers? Seems to me that few houses for sale by agents have an ad on craigslist, and that's probably #2 behind the MLS.
Oh I suppose they could hire professional photographers to take more pictures, create those 360-degree photo presentations, maybe even advertise in "Homes and Land", but I doubt that would be effective.
Bottom line, Realtors won't be able to generate as much income with their current model as they have these last couple years and they want to make it up some how.
Realtors will need to work harder to make a sale, to negotiate with both the seller and the buyer to make a deal.
The nature real estate marketing and sales will be changing big time, even in Oregon.
You will see more and more venom from RE (ahem) "professionals" as their pink ponies ride off into the sunset.
How anyone can consider someone who take a 3 month course a "professional" is beyond my grasp. It devalues the word "professional" which I reserve for people who finish at least a 4 year degree in Medicine, Law, Engineering, etc. and THEN take whatever post college steps are required to obtain a "Professional" certification.
If you call RE agents "professional" then one could extend the term to cover just about anyone doing anything.
Ardell, I hate to be the bearer of bad news but your job is about to go the way of the telephone operator and vinyl record.
However, since over here at SB forums are a helpful and caring lot I have prepared two scenarios that might help you with your new "professional" career.
RECOMMENDED:
Professional Grocery Bagger: I think this is a job Ardell could do well given that she is already a "professional" in a job that requires similar skills, intellect, etc. This is a good match.
NOT RECOMMENDED:
Professional Brain Surgeon: Even though Ardell is a "professional" she may have to supplement her 3 month "professional training" with a few more classes. Probably not a good match.
Ardell, have a nice day and please think twice before attacking our Tim again. :twisted:
If that was an attempt at humor, it was a very poor one. Unprovoked personal attacks are always funny to author, I guess. I wonder if she gives a rat's ass about banks yet.
"You will see more and more venom from RE (ahem) "professionals" as their pink ponies ride off into the sunset."
If that was an attempt at humor, it was a very poor one. Unprovoked personal attacks are always funny to author, I guess.
Venom is indeed going to become an increasing problem - a lot of RE agents are in A.'s position of not only having their business going south, but also being personally leveraged to the hilt in RE. It is like not only working for Enron, but also having borrowed a ton of money to buy Enron stock - at some point, you are not going to be a very happy camper.
"The slower the market, the more deals each of us professionals do; the faster the market, the more deals we lose to amateurs."
So, in other words, the slower the market, the busier these professionals are.
I'd sure like to see some proof of that! And this from the same guy that attacks the credibility and credentials of almost every 'anon' who posts over there. Oh, the hypocrisy!
"The slower the market, the more deals each of us professionals do; the faster the market, the more deals we lose to amateurs.
Ardell made the same claim a number of months ago - that she would do better in a declining market, after the amateur RE agents had gone back to selling used cars.
However, given the slowness of the market, you'd think that the "professionals" would be in an increasingly good mood, given their good fortune. Instead, they seem remarkably cranky lately. It's inexplicable!
That post pretty much sums up why I very rarely go on that blog anymore. Still to this day people are in denial. I think even when faced with 10% yoy corrections and major bank insolvency they would be finding reasons why it is a "good time to buy".
What a joke that blog has become. The only people posting anything relevant are Jillayne, S-Crow and occasionally Rhonda. The rest of the crew are shills.
"The slower the market, the more deals each of us professionals do; the faster the market, the more deals we lose to amateurs."
From Marks mouth to our ears. Bliss.
Maybe he just forgot to apply the proper mathematical formulations to his statement. The slower the market, the higher percentage of deals that are completed by 'professionals'. As total sales approaches zero, total sales by 'professionals' also approaches zero.
You'd need to take calculus to know what to do with this however. Let x be total sales, and f(x) be the number of sales by 'professionals'. We'll take the limit of f(x)/x as x approaches 0. Since x goes to 0, use L'Hôpital's Rule to solve the equation. We see that percentage of sales made by 'professionals' goes to
f(x)' dx/dy
as total sales approaches 0.
At this point, we need to know what f(x) is to solve. I believe if you read the rest of the original post, you'd notice that f(x) = "I'm Mack McCoy!!!" The derivative is obviously huge, which proves his original point.
Comments
It may be better just to move to an area where the salaries are higher, rather than where the houses are cheaper. Some of these guys tend to forget the other side of the affordability coin is income, and Seattle isn't exactly know for it's high incomes or growth in higher paying jobs.
When it came down to it, once I decided that I wasn't going to buy a house in Seattle in the near future, looking for a higher paying job out of state made a lot of sense.
Some of us don't have the stomach for the volatility that accompanies investments with 12%+ returns and I still remember the tech stock bubble.
I'll stick with my CD's, municiple bonds, and Vanguard mutual funds - thank you.
"Note: Ardell suggested that we close comments on Friday's Rates...and so I am giving it a whirl. The rates are being posted in order to provide information and to give you an idea of the direction mortgage interest rates are going. By closing the comments, the rates are effectively becoming a memo or "rate sheet". So if you do have a comment for me regarding rates or mortgage questions simply contact me by visiting another one of my post or send me an email."
I had very mixed feelings about closing comments at the time, however, as Jillayne mentioned previously, the comments were getting out of hand and off topic. With rates being published every Friday, it was as if people were counting the days to blast the post.
The main purpose of the posting the rates is to give people an idea of rate trends. I am actually opposed to posting rates since unless you're putting 20% down and have a 680 score or better and are full doc, those rates don't apply. And the rates may change the moment I post them.
I bet if you open them again, however, you would find more on-topic posts these days.
With so many other posts that are more enticing to bubble-heads being posted, both on RCG as well as the PI Professionals blog, there is less need to stray off-topic with your rate posts.
Thanks for continuing to post them, comments or no!
Money quote:
Yep, you're apparently a Communist if you think that house prices are going to decline.
Oddly enough, Mack turned off comments on his post - I guess he's had enough of non-professionals venturing uninformed opinions on his epistles.
Write a FSBO book like this "Real Estate Professional" did in SLC Utah and try to sell it to all the homeowners.
Too funny...
http://youtube.com/watch?v=21pjknW9BMI
When they're not discussing the relative merits of burying plastic statues and their effect on home sales, it is indeed pretty quiet.
I just posted something caustic in the recent down payment assistance thread, maybe that will stir them up.
http://activerain.com/blogsview/309953/ ... te-Cheaper
In Oregon discounting realtor fees on the buyer side is prohibited!!!
Just how do they market effectively, besides the MLS, some signs, and flyers? Seems to me that few houses for sale by agents have an ad on craigslist, and that's probably #2 behind the MLS.
Bottom line, Realtors won't be able to generate as much income with their current model as they have these last couple years and they want to make it up some how.
Realtors will need to work harder to make a sale, to negotiate with both the seller and the buyer to make a deal.
The nature real estate marketing and sales will be changing big time, even in Oregon.
Seattle Bubble Says Seattle Markets Going UP!
I'm going to abstain from further comment...because I'm not sure it would be civil.
How anyone can consider someone who take a 3 month course a "professional" is beyond my grasp. It devalues the word "professional" which I reserve for people who finish at least a 4 year degree in Medicine, Law, Engineering, etc. and THEN take whatever post college steps are required to obtain a "Professional" certification.
If you call RE agents "professional" then one could extend the term to cover just about anyone doing anything.
Ardell, I hate to be the bearer of bad news but your job is about to go the way of the telephone operator and vinyl record.
However, since over here at SB forums are a helpful and caring lot I have prepared two scenarios that might help you with your new "professional" career.
RECOMMENDED:
Professional Grocery Bagger: I think this is a job Ardell could do well given that she is already a "professional" in a job that requires similar skills, intellect, etc. This is a good match.
NOT RECOMMENDED:
Professional Brain Surgeon: Even though Ardell is a "professional" she may have to supplement her 3 month "professional training" with a few more classes. Probably not a good match.
Ardell, have a nice day and please think twice before attacking our Tim again. :twisted:
Venom is indeed going to become an increasing problem - a lot of RE agents are in A.'s position of not only having their business going south, but also being personally leveraged to the hilt in RE. It is like not only working for Enron, but also having borrowed a ton of money to buy Enron stock - at some point, you are not going to be a very happy camper.
That is still one of my all-time favorite threads/posts/comments.
I was quickly reminded of the George Bernard Shaw quote:
I'm not wasting any more time
"The slower the market, the more deals each of us professionals do; the faster the market, the more deals we lose to amateurs."
So, in other words, the slower the market, the busier these professionals are.
I'd sure like to see some proof of that! And this from the same guy that attacks the credibility and credentials of almost every 'anon' who posts over there. Oh, the hypocrisy!
Ardell made the same claim a number of months ago - that she would do better in a declining market, after the amateur RE agents had gone back to selling used cars.
However, given the slowness of the market, you'd think that the "professionals" would be in an increasingly good mood, given their good fortune. Instead, they seem remarkably cranky lately. It's inexplicable!
What a joke that blog has become. The only people posting anything relevant are Jillayne, S-Crow and occasionally Rhonda. The rest of the crew are shills.
From Marks mouth to our ears. Bliss.
Maybe he just forgot to apply the proper mathematical formulations to his statement. The slower the market, the higher percentage of deals that are completed by 'professionals'. As total sales approaches zero, total sales by 'professionals' also approaches zero.
You'd need to take calculus to know what to do with this however. Let x be total sales, and f(x) be the number of sales by 'professionals'. We'll take the limit of f(x)/x as x approaches 0. Since x goes to 0, use L'Hôpital's Rule to solve the equation. We see that percentage of sales made by 'professionals' goes to as total sales approaches 0.
At this point, we need to know what f(x) is to solve. I believe if you read the rest of the original post, you'd notice that f(x) = "I'm Mack McCoy!!!" The derivative is obviously huge, which proves his original point.
So I introduced the programming and now you guys are busting out with the calculus. How about some physics or organic chemistry to round it out? ;-)