Special Xmas Dinner For Meshugy

SeattleMoose

Meshugy

As our resident troll and RE bull you are invited to a special Xmas dinner consisting of......CROW (broiled or baked...your choice). :twisted:

Baby Blue?

carlislematthew

SeattleMoose wrote:

Meshugy

As our resident troll and RE bull you are invited to a special Xmas dinner consisting of......CROW (broiled or baked...your choice). :twisted:

Baby Blue?

I recall a bet that Meshugy made with someone on this forum. Who was that? What was the bet? Can we say if anyone won yet? I don't remember the details...

deejayoh

To be fair, he won most of them...

http://seattlebubble.com/forum/viewtopi ... ight=wager

Synthetik appears to have a shot at winning still.

TJ_98370

..
I miss the shugster........

(following posted by meshugy on 28 Feb 2007):

Ah...the old Meshugy is scared routine. No matter what Meshugy says or does, it's because he's scared!

If Meshugy posts a lot, it's because he's scared about the market crashing.

If Meshugy doesn't post, it's because he's scared about the market crashing.

If Meshugy say prices are going up, it's because he's scared about the market crashing.

If Meshugy says prices are going down, it's because he's scared about the market crashing.

etc, etc....again, the conspiracy theories and feeble attempts to understand me are the most entertaining things about this blog.
..

rose-colored-coolaid

deejayoh wrote:

To be fair, he won most of them...

http://seattlebubble.com/forum/viewtopi ... ight=wager

Synthetik appears to have a shot at winning still.

Giving credit where it's due, many of those predictions were quite bold, and yet most were only incorrect by a short period of time.

From Meshugy's post

meshugy wrote:

Those of you following this blog over the last several months will recall a number of readers made wagers with me regarding the housing market in Seattle. Let's review them:

Matthew: He predicted that March 2007 would be the peak price for Seattle and then prices would plummet from April onward. Matthew has earned the distinction as the first to end up with egg on his face. April #s show that house prices came nowhere near falling in April. They actually climbed $10K in one month to $465. Matthew, can you explain why your prediction ran amuck?

Refracted Thought: He wagered that we'd see double digit declines by June. Refracted thought's predication is in serious jeopardy. With April stats showing double digit price increases, and sales up YOY, it's very unlikely that we'll see double digit YOY price decreases come June. RF, would you care to abdicate?

Biliruben: He predicted YOY inflation adjusted price decreases by July. Again, this looks highly unlikely after the strong showing in April. Would you like to back out?

Synthetic: Synthetic bet that my house's zillow rating would drop by Dec. This wager was made in March, when my house Zillowed at $534K. Today it zillows at $550K. Dec is a long ways off and I suppose anything can happen. But it looks like Syn miscalculated this one...I'd be glad to give you the opportunity of back out of this. Do you accept?

Matthew was only off by 3-4 months. Refracted Thought was off by about 5 months (if you count the median decline from July to November). Biliruben was also off by about 5 months (0% YOY in November is negative amortization in real money). I would say in a market as slow moving as housing, that being wrong by 6 months, but getting the direction and total value correct is actually pretty good.

So yeah, meshugy won most of those bets...

deejayoh

Giving credit where it's due, many of those predictions were quite bold, and yet most were only incorrect by a short period of time.

Agreed, they were close. I was going to lay it out as you did, but I was too lazy

and it looks like he'll just squeak by on the last one too

rose-colored-coolaid

It is the nature of man to be optimistic. Can we blame the pessimists if they are as over optimistic as the optimists?

Personally, I'm actually surprised all of those predictions did as well as they did. At the time, I thought they were all off by as much as a year. So I say congrats guys. You lost the battle, but are winning the war.