LHR's Commute Sample
For the last year or so, I've been using my commute from Lake Hills to Microsoft as a sort of sampling of the area's housing market. It's been a pretty good indicator of the overall market IMO, so I'm curious to see how it plays out this spring.
The route is a roughly 3 mile commute along residential Bellevue and Redmond, primarily along 164th Ave and part of 40th St. I only count houses for sale or rent that are actually on the road itself, not down side streets, even if there's a sign on the main route pointing to it.
As of today (from memory) there's 3 houses for sale (one FSBO), and an additional one marked as sold recently. There are have been as many 9 for sale previously, in the summer of last year. There's also the new subdivision on 40th with three houses going up, but i'm not counting them at the moment.
I'll post updates here as things change.
The route is a roughly 3 mile commute along residential Bellevue and Redmond, primarily along 164th Ave and part of 40th St. I only count houses for sale or rent that are actually on the road itself, not down side streets, even if there's a sign on the main route pointing to it.
As of today (from memory) there's 3 houses for sale (one FSBO), and an additional one marked as sold recently. There are have been as many 9 for sale previously, in the summer of last year. There's also the new subdivision on 40th with three houses going up, but i'm not counting them at the moment.
I'll post updates here as things change.
Comments
I have pretty much the same commute as you, but mine is just down 156th. (Lake Hills to MSFT)
On my route there's been one house with a for sale sign for a few months now.
I've lived in Bellevue my whole life, and do remember a time in the mid-90s when you couldn't go 5 feet along 140th in the Bridle Trails neighborhood without seeing a For Sale sign. It will be interesting to see how this neighborhood fares when the bubble bursts.
I also noticed that the subdivision near campus has a new sign up. There are apparently 11 lots up for construction. Three houses have already started going up, and the one closest to completion has sold.
Total: 3 homes + 9 lots.
Total: 4 homes + 9 lots.
For Sale: 4 (3 SFH, 1 Condo)
For Rent: 1
Building: 8
For Sale: 5 (4 SFH, 1 Condo)
For Rent: 1
Building: 8
For Sale: 5 (5 SFH)
For Rent: 1
Building: 8
Also, the listings for East Bellevue (98008) on ZipRealty are not rising anymore and staying in the low 60 range.
The only negative I notice is that there are a tonne of contractor signs up for individual homes they are building all around the area. In fact, I think the number of contractor signs are greater than broker for-sale ones.
For what it's worth, about half this commute is in 98008.
For Sale: 6 (6 SFH)
For Rent: 1
Building: 8
For Sale: 7 (All SFH)
For Rent: 1
Building: 8
That's only 2 shy of last year's peak, hit in late summer.
Question: Do houses near the main roads sell for less than ones a block or two into a development? I would think so as there is less major traffic in front of your house and would seem more secure.
I'm not sure what "BS" there is to call. I'm simply keeping track of houses for sale on my commute to work, from my front door to the door of the building I work in. Simple as that. As I said at the beginning, it's a roughly three mile drive along reseidential Bellevue and Redmond, primarily 164th Ave and 40th St. Anyone can drive the same route and see the same houses. Lying about the numbers would accomplish nothing.
I think you misunderstand my intention. I'm not trying to prove some hypothesis or point. I'm watching a sample of data over a long period of time for trending. So far what I've seen in this sample does roughly correlate the regional inventory numbers as far as inventory and sales go, but your mileage may vary.
I've never said anything about price or any other reason why these houses might be on the market for so long. I'm simply counting inventory. For all I know, they could all be dramatically overpriced, or they could be dramatically under priced but in very poor shape, or they could be priced fairly and the market just sucks. I don't know because I haven't looked. Feel free to look them up yourself if you are so inclined. It's irrelevent to my running sample of inventory.
The route does pass through areas of different house sizes and quality, from recently built two-story McMansions to old one-story houses in a poorer neighborhood and even some condos. I have noticed that condos are for sale a lot less this year than last year. And that roughly half the houses up right now were also up last year. But I have no data as to why.
The reason I chose only the main road is because it's much easier to track. I'd be a public menace trying to look down every side street for signs. I do look occasionally and there are indeed even more down the side streets, but since I can't watch them regularly I don't count them. It is just a sampling after all.
One way I look at houses and inventory is on zipreality.com. I created a set search and look at it everyday. Currently since I own a condo I look at condos in the Seatte downtown area (QA, Capital Hill, 1st Hill...). This would allow you to create a good template for a set square mileage (you can track it by zipcode as well) and allow you to track houses in your neighborhood better and the numbers would be quantified into the avg price or inventory levels...just an interesting idea that you could report back to us.
In my narrow search of condos in the $200k - $350k market I have seen a decline in inventory ~350 condos in my daily search. This may have to do with rising prices as condos exceed the search limit, or that developers tend not to put them all on the MLS, so it should be taken with a grain of salt. However, prices for condos in relative size and location as mine have increased quite a bit over the past month compared to Jan, Feb & March...just an interesting observation. Afterall it is the "spring selling season"
Since my commute does cut across several different types of areas, I do think it is somewhat indicitive of this part of the eastside, but I agree that it is not necessarily a reprentative of the entire area. And I have seen some correlation with the larger inventory and sales numbers, but that could just be coincidence. Either way, it's interesting and easy to watch as the year progresses. The fact there are only two houses less for sale in April as opposed to the peak for the entire last year (which was late summer if I remember correctly) is interesting to me. I also find it interesting that houses are staying on the market for a relatively long time, and the same houses are up again from last year. But again, your mileage may vary.
For Sale: 5 (All SFH)
For Rent: 1
Building: 8
For Sale: 6 (All SFH)
For Rent: 1
Building: 8
For Sale: 10 (9 SFH, 1 Condo)
For Rent: 0
Building: 7
in addition to that in the last week two houses across (next door to each other) from mine have gone up for sale. One has been sitting empty for a while and the sign was only up for a couple days. The other (nicer of the two) has had a sign for a little over a week.
The most extreme of all the properties is one house that has been on the market for the better part of 2 years. Yes, 2 years -- since I started watching. That's a lot of mortgage to eat. It's going to be an interesting winter.
Ironically, the day I posted the previous item about not seeing a winter inventory decline, the inventory started to decline. Several sgns came down without fanfare, and 1 or 2 of the condos actually found GFs. There's probably only 4 or 5 for sale now, from memory.
http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/729-N- ... ome/301345
The houses on either side are posting up for sale signs they bought at fred meyer offering a better deal than the realtor sign. :P
For a long time I was continuously surprised that lot size seemed to matter little on houses ~$500,000, but these 3000 sq ft lots are going for much less now. That house sold for $445,000 in march of 2007.
Wow. looking at a 10% loss in just over a year based on asking.
Date Price
Feb 28, 2008 $463,500
Mar 15, 2008 $449,000
May 28, 2008 $399,000
Source: NWMLSSales History Date Price Appreciation
Jun 30, 1989 $84,700 --
Sep 12, 2003 $261,000 8.2%/yr
Mar 12, 2007 $445,000 16.5%/