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US Home prices down15.3% in past year: S&P/CASE-SHILLER

EastSiderEastSider
edited June 2008 in Seattle Real Estate
Home prices in 20 major U.S. cities have dropped 15.3% in the past year, according to the Case-Shiller home price index released Tuesday by Standard & Poor's. Prices were down 16.3% in a smaller subset of 10 homes that have been tracked over a longer period. Home prices fell in 12 of 20 cities in April compared with March, but are down in all 20 cities compared with a year earlier. Prices are now down 17.8% from the peak two years ago. The Case-Shiller index tracks sales of the same homes over time, so it's not influenced by the mix of homes sold in a period

http://www.marketwatch.com/
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal ... 0,0,0.html

Comments

  • WestSideBillyWestSideBilly
    Wow, Seattle actually moved up a tick.

    LA, SF, SD, LV, and Phoenix all take another big hit... and Detroit? Ouch.
  • RobroyRobroy
    WestSideBilly wrote:
    Wow, Seattle actually moved up a tick.
    According to the graph in the lead article here: http://seattlebubble.com/blog/

    Seattle's YOY actually went down from an index value of 189 to 180.

    MOM is irrelevant.
  • WestSideBillyWestSideBilly
    Robroy wrote:
    MOM is irrelevant.

    Except when comparing to the other 19 cities, many of which saw a significant MOM downtick in March (defying the spring bounce hoopla).

    In a one city vacuum, yes, MOM is worthless.
  • rose-colored-coolaidrose-colored-coolaid
    Regardless, in this case the MOM increase is not surprising. It will likely also be a lonely MOM increase, because it looked a lot like a dead cat bouncing to me.
  • RobroyRobroy
    WestSideBilly wrote:
    Robroy wrote:
    MOM is irrelevant.

    Except when comparing to the other 19 cities, many of which saw a significant MOM downtick in March (defying the spring bounce hoopla).

    In a one city vacuum, yes, MOM is worthless.
    I still disagree. I think this MOM is just an example of the "somewhat" true phrase that "real estate is local". It is a local effect and not is it only temporary, but we are in a different phase in this downturn than most of the other markets, as the main article on this site points out.

    I still consider MOM irrelevent regarding trend prediction.
  • rose-colored-coolaidrose-colored-coolaid
    Robroy wrote:
    I still disagree. I think this MOM is just an example of the "somewhat" true phrase that "real estate is local".

    Seems to me like this is becoming less "somewhat" true all the time. I was recently reminded of the fact that there was once a time when trademarks didn't really matter. In whatever town you lived in, horseshoes, pies, and tools tended to be "local". That is, if disease killed off a bunch of horses in one area, then only the blacksmiths in that area suffered from lack of horseshoe sales. Prior to the industrial revolution, essentially all markets were local.

    But the world is changing drastically. Essentially nothing is local, and I think perhaps real estate is joining that group. The global economy is starting to move more and more in lock step than ever before. The financial markets are tied together like never before. Further, the ability to travel and communicate have revolutionized how the world works.
  • RobroyRobroy
    rose-colored-coolaid wrote:
    Robroy wrote:
    I still disagree. I think this MOM is just an example of the "somewhat" true phrase that "real estate is local".

    Seems to me like this is becoming less "somewhat" true all the time. I was recently reminded of the fact that there was once a time when trademarks didn't really matter. In whatever town you lived in, horseshoes, pies, and tools tended to be "local". That is, if disease killed off a bunch of horses in one area, then only the blacksmiths in that area suffered from lack of horseshoe sales. Prior to the industrial revolution, essentially all markets were local.

    But the world is changing drastically. Essentially nothing is local, and I think perhaps real estate is joining that group. The global economy is starting to move more and more in lock step than ever before. The financial markets are tied together like never before. Further, the ability to travel and communicate have revolutionized how the world works.
    Well said. And I agree. When I put somewhat in quotes, the implications were basically along the lines of exactly what you articulated so well.

    Case in point: everyone said "Seattle is different" because of our strong economy. Meanwhile, Safeco is gone, Wamu may soon be, and far more importantly, there was the article just today that the rising fuel prices could result in 1/3 of Boeing's aircraft sales being cancelled. Now, I know that Boeing is now a "Chicago" company, but I suspect it could have an impact here. ;)

    There I go, using those quotes again...
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