Since February employment numbers were just recently released here in Washington State, let’s check in again on the jobs situation around Seattle, courtesy of data from the Washington State Employment Security Department. The style of most of these charts are stolen from the excellent San Diego housing reporter Rich Toscano.
First up, here’s a two-year chart of the year-over-year change in some of the broad job categories related to housing (from my subscription journal Sound Housing Quarterly):
As of February, construction is still by far the hardest hit industry around Seattle, but the bleeding has lessened from 25% year-over-year losses to “just” a 20% loss as of February. Jobs are still being lost overall, but Retail has almost leveled off to zero.
And don’t ask me what’s the deal with the weird spikes in Manufacturing in October ‘08 and ‘09. It’s in the data from the state, and I have no idea what caused it.
Here’s a look at the overall Seattle area unemployment rate compared to the national rate:
Next up, here’s a chart that shows the raw number of job gains or losses in the last 12 months in some of the largest Seattle-area industries:
Manufacturing, construction, and professional / business services are still shedding more jobs than any other industry in the Seattle area. Between the three, a total of 40,500 jobs have been lost in the last year. Health care was once again the only major sector that added jobs in the period.
Here’s a look at the same data, broken down by the year-over-year percentage change, to give a better picture of the relative health of various industries:
Construction still sticks out like a sore thumb in this view, with the losses in other industries all falling in the single digits.
Lastly, here’s a big pie chart showing all major industries that make up Seattle’s job market, to give you some additional perspective to the above data:
Since I don’t have full access to a database with all the details for every home sold over the last few years, this exercise will be anecdotal, but I still think it will interesting.
For this post, we will examine the King County NWMLS areas listed in the following table. The single-family home (SFH) median prices listed below are an average of December through February in order to smooth out the noise that results from such small sample sizes.
Click the description of an area to jump to that area in the post below.
In my anecdotal analysis of thirty SFH sales scattered around King County, I found that even in areas where the median prices are flat or going up, buyers seem to be getting more home for their money. The 2010 benefit ranged from 3% larger homes (for 19% less money) in Kirkland to a whopping 65% more square footage for roughly the same price as 2009 in the Greenlake area.
Below you will find the full sampling of three SFH sales in each of the above areas from January/February 2009 and three from January/February 2010. I’ll be looking for closed sales that fall within ±5% of the above-listed 3-month average of the median.
With friends who have also been lucky enough to land a Columbia City cottage or a Shoreline rambler, there’s a sense of shared joy and relief. I remember feeling like this in fifth grade when my best friend and I landed parts in the school play: “Thank God we both got in.” We toast our hefty mortgages and spend long evenings discussing hardwood floor finishes, crown moldings and our all-important soaring equity.
But with friends who have not yet “squeezed in” to the housing market, I am reminded of how I felt when I got accepted by my first choice for college and my best friend got nothing but rejections. What do you say to each other? I try to offer soothing assurances: “I hear there are still some great deals up north.” “600 square feet is plenty of room!”
But no matter what I say, I know we all feel like they have probably missed their chance, like they didn’t buy their ticket on the last spaceship flight off a planet that’s about to explode. I fear they’re doomed to move back to Missouri in order to afford more than a studio condo on the fringes of the city.
Got it? The renters were the ones that were doomed. Definitely not the people who took on hefty mortgages to squeeze into the housing market in 2006.
The percentage of households in the chart above is determined using OFM population estimates and household sizes from the 2000 Census. King County came in at 1 NTS per 1,062 households, Snohomish County had 1 NTS per 636 households, and Pierce had 1 NTS for every 592 households (higher is better).
According to foreclosure tracking company RealtyTrac, Washington’s statewide foreclosure rate for February of one foreclosure for every 1,046 housing units was 33rd worst among the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Note that RealtyTrac’s definition of “in foreclosure” is much broader than what we are using, and includes Notice of Default, Lis Pendens, Notice of Trustee Sale, and Real Estate Owned.
Hit the jump for a larger version of the chart that shows the percentage of households in each county receiving a foreclosure notice each month:
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