By The Tim on September 2, 2010
With August in the rear view mirror, it’s time for another monthly stats preview. Most of the charts below are based on broad county-wide data that is available through a simple search of King County Records and Snohomish County Records. If you have additional stats you’d like to see in the preview, drop a line in the comments and I’ll see what I can do.
First up, total home sales as measured by the number of “Warranty Deeds” filed with the county:
Warranty Deeds were more or less flat in King County between July and August. Last year Warranty Deeds fell nearly 10% during the same month, so maybe that’s progress? Obviously they’re still at a crazy low point for this time of year. YOY Warranty Deeds were down 13%. Based on this data, I suspect we’ll see NWMLS-reported SFH closed sales for August come in around 1,300.
Here’s a long-range view of King County Warranty Deeds, to give you a little more context:
Here’s a look at Snohomish County Deeds, but keep in mind that Snohomish County files Warranty Deeds (regular sales) and Trustee Deeds (bank foreclosure repossessions) together under the category of “Deeds (except QCDS),” so this chart is not as good a measure of plain vanillla sales as the Warranty Deed only data we have in King County.
Snohomish County was up on the month. It will be interesting to see if SFH sales mark a similar jump.
Next, here’s Notices of Trustee Sale, which are an indication of the number of homes currently in the foreclosure process:
Month-to-month decreases in King and Snohomish, but both came in well over where they were a year ago, thanks to last year’s rapid decline once the new state law kicked in.
Here’s another measure of foreclosures for King County, looking at Trustee Deeds, which is the type of document filed with the county when the bank actually repossesses a house through the trustee auction process. Note that there are other ways for the bank to repossess a house that result in different documents being filed, such as when a borrower “turns in the keys” and files a “Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure.”
Yikes. Another new high in foreclosure repossessions in King County, jumping so far that I had to readjust the vertical axis on my chart.
Lastly, here’s an approximate guess at where the month-end inventory was, based on our sidebar inventory tracker (powered by Estately):
Nothing too surprising here. Look for new 2009-2010 highs in both King and Snohomish. We’ll probably see a continued growth in inventory until about October.
Stay tuned later this month a for more detailed look at each of these metrics as the “official” data is released from various sources.
Posted in Counties, Statistics | Tagged county-records, foreclosures, inventory, King, Notice of Trustee Sale, preview, sales, Snohomish, Statistics, trustee-deeds, warranty-deeds
By The Tim on September 1, 2010
Let’s check out the three price tiers for the Seattle area, as measured by Case-Shiller. Remember, Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.
Note that the tiers are determined by sale volume. In other words, 1/3 of all sales fall into each tier. For more details on the tier methodologies, hit the full methodology pdf. Here are the current tier breakpoints:
- Low Tier: < $263,258 (up 0.3%)
- Mid Tier: $262,524 – $402,831
- Hi Tier: > $402,831 (up 0.4%)
First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through June 2010.
Here’s a zoom-in, showing just the last year:
Not too surprisingly, the low tier seems to have been the only one to benefit from the expiring tax credit. While the low tier rose 1.0% MOM, the middle tier fell 0.5%, and the high tier was flat.
Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from January 2003 through June 2010.
The low and high tiers marked slight improvement in their respective YOY numbers, but the middle tier declined notably. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of June – Low: -2.4%, Med: -3.4%, Hi: -0.8%.
Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted yesterday, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.
Looks like the low tier is making up a little bit of ground lately.
(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 08.31.2010)
Posted in Counties, Statistics | Tagged Case-Shiller, Statistics, tiers
By The Tim on August 31, 2010
Let’s have a look at the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to June data,
Flat May to June (up 0.01%).
Down 1.8% YOY.
Down 23.6% from the July 2007 peak
Last year prices rose 0.4% from May to June and year-over-year prices were down 16.1%.
Considering that June was the last month of the tax credit, I actually expected to see about a 1% month-to-month bump. I’m rather surprised that Seattle was flat.
Here’s our offset graph—the same graph we post every month—with L.A. & San Diego time-shifted from Seattle & Portland by 17 months. All four cities actually turned down slightly on this chart in June. Year-over-year, Portland came in at +0.2%, Los Angeles at +9.2%, and San Diego at +11.2%. Seattle is still the only West Coast Case-Shiller city still falling year-to-year.
Note: This graph is not intended to be predictive. It is for entertainment purposes only.
Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including interactive charts of all 20 cities.
Continue reading “Case-Shiller: Tax Credit Out with a Whimper in Seattle”
Posted in Counties, Statistics | Tagged behind the cycle, California, Case-Shiller, graphs, Statistics
By The Tim on August 29, 2010
Posted in Economy, Polls | Tagged Economy, Jobs, job_growth, Polls
Time to Let the Snake-Eating Gorillas Freeze to Death
By The Tim on August 30, 2010 | 43 Responses
Apparently there are some in the government who feel like they haven’t done enough yet to “help” the housing market, because Calculated Risk had a great post yesterday on the subject of a possible return of the undead tax credit.
I could not agree more. Enough with the credits, subsidies, and stimulus already. And I say this as someone who is seriously considering buying a home within the next year. I would much rather have a rationally-functioning market than a few grand in my pocket.
To me, the homebuyer tax credit was like an invasive species that was introduced to an ecosystem to try to control a different invasive species that was introduced earlier.
I think I’ll name them Fannie & Freddie.
Pardon my pop culture reference, but I can’t help thinking of the Simpsons episode “Bart the Mother,” in which Bart released a pair of “Bolivian tree lizards,” which destroy the town’s pigeon population. In order to eradicate the lizards, the people of Springfield plan to release “Chinese Needle Snakes,” followed by “snake-eating gorillas.”
In the real world, the government wanted to encourage home ownership, so they beefed up Fannie and Freddie, loosened lending regulations, and held interest rates low. Things got overheated, so they began jacking up interest rates. High interest rates cooled things off, but that exposed the underlying weakness in the economy. Of course, when people realized how weak the economy was, the housing market crashed. In order to combat the crashing housing market, they dropped rates to the floor and introduced tax credits. Once the credits disappeared, sales fell hard, sending the housing market back to the gutter.
Yes, I realize that I am oversimplifying and leaving out a lot of steps, but I think that at its core, the invasive species analogy really works well.
It’s time to stop screwing with the ecosystem by introducing one invasive species after another.
Posted in National, Opinion | Tagged Calculated_Risk, commentary, government_meddling, tax credit | 43 Responses