Seattle Bubble

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Let’s check in on the NWMLS statistics from around the sound. I realized this month that if I’m going to include Skagit County in the Puget Sound wrapup, I should probably include Island County as well. So from now on we’re looking at seven Puget Sound counties. I’d change the name of the site to “PugetSoundBubble.com,” but I wouldn’t want to sacrifice the name recognition we’ve built up over the last few years. Anyway, here’s a little graphical look at what the market looks like around the sound.

Here’s where the YOY stats stand for each of the six counties as of March 2008:

King - Price: -3.6% | Listings: +49.4% | Sales: -27.8% | MOS: 6.2
Snohomish - Price: -6.7% | Listings: +27.7% | Sales: -42.9% | MOS: 7.9
Pierce - Price: -3.6% | Listings: +13.1% | Sales: -26.3% | MOS: 7.9
Kitsap - Price: -4.4% | Listings: +24.0% | Sales: -34.8% | MOS: 9.8
Thurston - Price: -2.7% | Listings: +0.9% | Sales: -17.1% | MOS: 5.9
Island - Price: -13.5% | Listings: +24.4% | Sales: -30.6% | MOS: 12.1
Skagit - Price: -6.5% | Listings: +20.8% | Sales: -31.7% | MOS: 9.3

Following below are the graphs you’ve come to expect. Click below to continue reading.

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A couple people pointed out a piece in the Wall Street Journal yesterday titled The Housing Crisis Is Over. I don’t doubt that the mere fact that it was printed in the WSJ makes it gospel to some folks. I am not interested in writing a rebuttal to this piece, as that has already been handled quite well by our friends at Calculated Risk. All I would like to add is to point out that this is an opinion piece, not a news article. In the opinion of a guy that runs a hedge fund and stands to profit healthily from the recovery of the housing market, the crisis is over. Not exactly a shocking revelation.

Meanwhile, Fannie Mae, “the nation’s largest buyer of home mortgages” announced huge losses today, and forecasts “a steeper drop in home prices this year.” Yeah, the crisis is over folks, nothing to see here, move along.

In other news, Les Christie of CNNMoney.com is singing a bit of a different tune than she was in mid-2006, when she was touting our “strong fundamentals” and declaring Washington State to be the “next hot market,” or just last summer, as the local market was hitting its peak, when she declared that in Seattle, “the housing boom goes on.” Her latest headline is not quite as positive: Bulletproof housing markets get hit.

Some of the last, best housing markets - the ones that continued to climb even as the rest of the country cratered - have turned south lately.

Seattle, Portland Ore., Charlotte, NC, and Salt Lake City all posted home price gains during 2007, even as more than half of the 150 markets tracked by the National Association of Realtors registered declines. Now they’ve joined the losers.

Of course, the Seattle market was never “bulletproof,” just late.

Speaking of the local decline, Zillow released their latest Quarterly Home Value Reports this week, which contain some interesting information about our area’s market. Of particular interest is the chart showing the approximate percentage of homeowners who bought each year that now have negative equity:

There’s also a corresponding map on the charts page showing how all that negative equity is distributed around the region. Interesting stuff.

I think that’s enough to digest in one post.

(Cyril Moulle-Berteaux, The Wall Street Journal, 05.06.2008)
(CR, Calculated Risk, 05.06.2008)
(Les Christie, CNNMoney, 05.06.2008)
(Quarterly Home Value Reports, Zillow, 05.05.2008)

Yesterday I predicted that the local reporting would focus on the paltry month-to-month median price increase, backed up by a plethora of quotes from peppy real estate agents. Today’s reporting, for the most part, does not disappoint.

I’m starting to get the impression as I read some of these articles that the reporters are just as amused by agents’ blatant denial as I am. My sarcast-o-meter is detecting a slight hint of intentional irony in the juxtaposition of facts and figures that paint an increasingly drab picture of the market with upbeat comments from local agents that continue to insist that things are getting better every day. Maybe I’m reading too much into it. You be the judge.

Click below for the usual roundup of this month’s reporting.

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It’s time for NWMLS statistics. April is now in the books, traditionally one of the strongest months for home sales.

Here’s the NWMLS press release: Northwest MLS Brokers Report Highest Volume of Pending Sales in Eight Months. I guess “Lowest Volume of April Pending Sales in Nine (plus) Years” didn’t have the same ring. Better to pretend that seasonal improvements == strong market.

Here is your summary along with the usual graphs and other updates.

Here’s your King County SFH summary:

April 2008
Active Listings: up 49% YOY
Pending Sales: down 28% YOY
Median Closed Price*: $448,500 - down 3.6% YOY

Here is the updated Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet, and here’s a copy in Excel 2003 format. Click below for the graphs and the rest of the post.

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