Case Shiller Tiers: High Tier Declining Alone

Case Shiller Tiers: High Tier Declining Alone

Let’s check out the three price tiers for the Seattle area, as measured by Case-Shiller. Remember, Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.

Note that the tiers are determined by sale volume. In other words, 1/3 of all sales fall into each tier. For more details on the tier methodologies, hit the full methodology pdf. Here are the current tier breakpoints:

  • Low Tier: < $283,602 (up 0.1%)
  • Mid Tier: $283,602 – $453,286
  • Hi Tier: > $453,286 (down 0.1%)

First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through September 2014.

Case-Shiller Tiered Index - Seattle

Here’s a zoom-in, showing just the last year:

Case-Shiller Tiered Index - Seattle

For the second month in a row, only the high tier lost ground month-over-month, while the middle and low tiers both turned in slight month-over-month gains. Overall, the high tier fell the least during the bust and has recovered the most, therefore giving that tier the most to lose as things soften.

Between August and September, the low tier increased 0.6%, the middle tier rose 0.2%, and the high tier lost 0.5%.

Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from January 2003 through September 2014.

Case-Shiller HPI - YOY Change in Seattle Tiers

Year-over-year price growth continued to decline in all three tiers, losing the most this time in the high tier. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of September – Low: +7.9%, Med: +5.8%, Hi: +6.0%.

Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted earlier this week, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.

Case-Shiller: Decline from Peak - Seattle Tiers

Current standing is 20.0% off peak for the low tier, 13.1% off peak for the middle tier, and 8.4% off peak for the high tier.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 11.25.2014)

  
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