10,000!!!
It's so close I can taste it.
9982 at 6pm on Saturday.
I think it may cross the mark in the next 24 hours. Anyone want to make a guess.
I've got 11am Sunday morning.
I expect it to drop below 10k again Monday as closed listings are removed so we will get to play this again.
9982 at 6pm on Saturday.
I think it may cross the mark in the next 24 hours. Anyone want to make a guess.
I've got 11am Sunday morning.
I expect it to drop below 10k again Monday as closed listings are removed so we will get to play this again.
Comments
Ummmm, I'll cheat and take noon?
And I was so close...
Don't give up yet Alan. Your prediction was only an hour off, but it was made 18 hours prior to the event. That's an error of just 5.6%. DJO predicted Noon at 11 am. To have similar accuracy, he would need to be within 3 minutes of the actually transition.
So...exactly what minute did we pass 10,000???
But seriously, when inventory keeps going up like that, aren't we all winners here?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1181096 ... ts_news_us
we'll be much lower than 10k come xmas time... then the ride starts all over again.
Population 2007:
01/01/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:227
05/31/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:143
01/01: 10,827
01/31: 11,888 (3,062)___01/2006: 8,425 (2,468)
02/28: 12,230 (3,022)___02/2006: 8,527 (3,391)
03/31: 13,210 (4,444)___03/2006: 8,724 (4,772)
04/30: 14,608 (4,451)___04/2006: 9,284 (4,585)
05/31: 16,295 (4,892)___05/2006: 10,018 (5,027)
06/30: 18,546 (5,052)___06/2006: 11,415 (5,597)
07/10: 18,547
07/22: 19,563
over a 1000 listings added in 12 days. I don't see inventory going down much if any this winter, if it follows trends with other areas in this bubble. The following is a graph of Lee County Market Performance.
Market Performance - Inventory vs. Sales
I am sure there will be some kind of dip in listings this winter, but we should see the over-all number remain well above the seasonal average.
Interestingly, I noticed that the listings in east Bellevue peaked last year in the October time-frame, and then declined substantially by December. We had 94 listings in 98008 (according to ZipRealty) in October 2006, and were down in the 40s by December. By contrast, we are in tthe 80s right now.
the seasonal trend is pronounced, even in the bubbliest markets. I agree with Sniglet, inventory will drop in Oct/Nov/Dec. Peak for annual inventory is usually sept. It may slide to october this year, but that would be unusual. you can see this in the data below, pulled from Pierce/King/Sno county data.
2000 - 2006 inventory seasonality vs. yearly average:
January 87.1%
February 89.5%
March 94.0%
April 100.8%
May 107.2%
June 107.8%
July 108.7%
August 105.8%
September 109.1%
October 106.7%
November 99.8%
December 83.6%
I very much doubt John L Scott will dip below 10k on Monday.
And what is up with John L Scott have 10% more inventory than Windermere? Is the service at John L Scott just so much better that they attract 10% more clients?
Sniglet and DJO are right about the seasonal effect. However, if you look at the graphs, inventory started climbing a little earlier this year. I think it will drop a little later in the year.
I dunno. looks like we are back to "healthy" gains again. Sitting at 10,190 right now.
I wonder if there wasn't a concerted effort to purge double listings, off market stuff, etc that went on early this week in order to try to make the number look more respectable? I know there were a couple places I saw on there twice and now those have disappeared.
example:
MLS#: 27075881
MLS#: 27095862
oh, and I agree w/ you on peak date for listings perhaps moving later in the year. maybe october. I think that the volume of homes listed makes it more likely this year than others.
I thought if a home is listed with a Realtor and they promise to put it on the MLS a MLS search, and searches through Windermere, JLScott, ZipRealty, and RedFin using the same criteria would produce the same list of properties???
If not, why not?
But I'm not sure about that. It is very likely I am wrong.
The folks at raincityguide.com would probably be more able (and happy) to answer that question than I am.
You can type in "King County" in Estately, and it gives you a number between the two you now have, but appears to grab some listings on the islands and Bremerton, which can't be right.
If a home is listed in the NWMLS (Northwest Multiple Listing Service) by a Realtor then the home should show up with the companies you mention, if it is still "active." Each company may query the NWMLS for updated listing several times a day, if not constantly. That being said, each company may have its own mechanism that could pull listings in such a manner that one company may have a listing that another does not, or does not have 'yet.'
The Northwest Multiple Listing Service covers an immense area of our state and there is not a "listing service" per se, for each town or county. The Brokers all (most) cooperate by utilizing the NWMLS. It was not always like this, but today it is the most efficient.
Hope that helps.
-"Scrow" (Tim Kane)
Legacy Escrow Service, Inc.
I started recording inventory using Windermere on June 26th -- a few days before Tim started recording data. The inventory from June 26th to around July 6th looks very similar to the data from July 24th to today: Up and down with in a range, but flat overall.
I have a new theory.
Most closings happen within a week of the first of the month. Inventory should start climbing in a few days and then will start doing the hop as sales close and listings are removed.
S-Crow could probably validate or invalidate this theory. I'm going to ask over at RCG too.
Do a large number of closings occur in the week surrounding the first of the month or are closings fairly evenly spread out across the entire month?
Tim (not to be confused with our own "The Tim") answered:
"The majority of closings occur at month end, but closings occur daily. Many reasons for it."
That adds some evidence to my theory. Inventory should start climbing in the next few days and will continue to climb until around the 26th of August.
Prediction: We will see 10600 by the end of August.
Say we get to 10500. Call the July high 10200. An August high of 10500 is only a 3% MOM increase -- or a 40% annualized rate of increase. It is going to take a few years to reach 20k at that rate.
August is typicaly a bit of a swoon in inventory vs. July. September is typically the high-water month, but I expect this year it might be October because of the overhang and the introduction of huge financing problems only this month.
Traditionally, subprime offered an escape route for prime borrowers facing cash flow problems. Not anymore.
That actually sounds very likely.
Look at me flip-flopping. Maybe I should enter politics. Anyone here willing to vote for me for President in 2008? I'll be old enough to serve.
Once the back of the real-estate finance industrial complex has been broken due to massive losses in key regions of the country, EVERYONE else (including Seattle) are going to feel the fall-out with a vengeance as lenders and investors decide to shoot first and ask questions later. It won't matter that Seattle has a sound economy, investors won't want to touch non-conforming mortgage securities regardless of where they come from.
Further, the credit contraction will throw the whole country (and much of the world) into a deep recession which will grip Seattle just as everywhere else.
I expect that sometime this fall we will start to see Puget Sound inventory grow at a rate we haven't seen in decades, and sales fall off like a cliff. By the end of 2008 I fully expect to see that our statistics are JUST as dreary as anywhere else in the US.
Probably true - but that doesn't mean that things will be as bad as San Diego or Florida. If you look at rents vs. housing prices, Seattle is in line with national averages - unlike some of the hyper-bubble areas.
That being said, "in line with national averages" isn't going to be very pleasant for someone trying to sell a house in Seattle.