george
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By fall 2008, two free tickets to the space needle will get you 10 percent off the asking price!
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Short answer: around 30 percent from the top (February 2008). Long answer: when they do correct, RE markets often overcorrect to the down side, the same way they bubble up. I expect the market to start to drop in March of 2008 as the inventory…
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At least Crellin gets it right here: Elizabeth Rhodes wrote: Sellers, still believing their homes are worth top dollar, price them at that. But buyers know the market is softening so they feel free to shop around. Sales slow and, as even more h…
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Makes sense but that would mean Seattle Times editors are actively encouraging one-sided coverage due to direct pressure from advertisers. That's possible but a bit hard to believe. I'd guess it's more laziness and ignorance than anything else. …
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Hey, the advertisers at the Seattle Times care about moving inventory. They don't want to read about the latest foreclosure numbers or trends. As a result of falling prices, foreclosures are rising nationally, especially in regions with a weak …
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Up 75 percent YOY? So the inventory dam is finally bursting. Just in time for the big increase in new condos in 2008 and 2009: Dupre + Scott Apartment Advisors predicts the number of apartments available in King County will decline 9.3 percent…
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What would record inventory mean? deejayoh wrote: Still moving up. Today's ticker: 8,483 SFRs and 2,519 condos in King County. I predict record inventory by the end of July.
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The question of how big drops have been depends on how you draw the lines on the map. OFHEO leaves Tacoma out of that chart - why?
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deejayoh wrote: So if I read between the lines, I see good sales of high-priced homes, weak sales of lower priced homes - and a decreasing number of overall sales. Any questions about why the median is still going up? Anyone want to claim it mea…
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Lionel wrote: I'm just relieved that we're in a broad cyclical trough. To all of the various problems affecting U.S. housing, we can now add a case of schizophrenia. The most widely watched housing authorities -- the National Associatio…
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Inventory skyrockets, real estate slows Apparently we won't be seeing that headline in the Seattle Times any time soon.
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Finance, Yes, technically, but what really matters is the discounted cash flow. So you need to know what the rental property would sell for today so we can calculate the discount rate. Right?
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So, yes, rents may actually rise as the bubble begins to unwind, but they will eventually come crashing down as well. We've already seen this play out in other parts of the country, and I don't see why Seattle should be any different. Exactly…
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JD, Here's a sobering article about what's happening to the rental market elsewhere, after the market started to flatten. Good luck with your investment theory that past performance is a guarantee: "The glut of U.S. properties for sale is about…
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What he said. Tell us the numbers and your underlying assumptions? What is that property worth if you sold it today? What do you get from rent today? What do you expect to get moving forward? Please don't forget the advanced function on the r…
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When I read this I wonder. Why doesn't the local press ever quote a single real estate investor or expert in Seattle who thinks a softening is coming? Is it really because such people don't exist? S-Crow wrote: In our office we work with one …
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But...but...but.... S-Crow wrote: In another example, area 705 (encompassing greater Ballard, Crown Hill, Greenwood, Phinney etc), March median sales price for residential only was $499,975 and April it is down to $475,000. This is not repo…
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Great post. Unanswered questions. How many speculative buyers currently rent houses in the area? (Meaning they bought assuming the price would increase next year enough to cover their costs.) How many will continue with this if the market fl…
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Meshugy, Obviously the supply is still a limiting factor but I don't see the controversy. We're seeing a rapid increase in inventory. If that trend escalates, the market will flatten. As the market flattens, there will be fewer speculative buye…
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We could be in for a harder landing than I would have guessed. biliruben wrote:
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1) Predictions for inventory in fall 2007? (and why?) 2) When does Seattle reach the magic turning point - 6 months supply +? (condos + SFH)
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DeeJay: The graph makes me think: ok, two possibilities here. Rates could muddle around about where they are today for a good long while. Or, interest rates could spike again for any number of reasons given world instability: http://www.iht…
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If a used car salesmen buys a lemon one day for $500 and sells it the next day for $5,000, do you call him a flipper? Or just a used car salesman? I don't know the answer, but I do know the same rule would apply here. Jazen wrote: Can realt…
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Normally I would agree, but houses in that price range attract fewer buyers. I might hire an agent but offer them no more than 4 percent. biliruben wrote: Unless there is something unusual or tricky about your situation, my thoughts on sell…
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An industry group misleading people? That's impossible. Sounds like this guy is actually worried and wants the fed to lower rates to keep all the tiny bubbles from bursting in a bigger way. deejayoh wrote: We did investigate NAR methodology a…
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Cool graph. What does you suppose that asset class comparison looks like going all the way back to 1903?
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Wait a minute...isn't that one kid FJ?
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Will anyone be stuck holding condos they can't sell in 2008-2009? Does the Pope own rental property?
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DEEJAY: No No No. It's all that undeveloped land in the New York metro area that makes it so different from the Puget Sound. See, I have proof: Undeveloped land in New York Jazen wrote: Meshugs, what is this all about, yo? Must be a co…