sniglet
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ira s wrote: But I think the vast majority just went along. Particularly when they aren't confronted with outright fraud. Quite a few folks will have a spine when they see blatent wrong-doing, but it is easy to rationalize just using rosy e…
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jillayne wrote: Not all insiders were silent about what was going on. I am pleased to hear that there were a few courageous insiders (like Jillayne) who were willing to speak out. However, they were clearly in the minority, and almost cer…
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EconE wrote: rose-colored-coolaid wrote: Agreed. I mean, a bunch of amateurs like us were very clued into the entire bubble. Perhaps it was because we were looking at the forest from the outside rather than being lost within? …
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The show was ok, but I didn't think it was all that wonderful. They gave the impression that the root problem is due to over-zealous mortgage lending and CDOs when this is really a much broader problem caused by an explosion of credit in general (be…
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The war in Vietnam was similar, I think, to the Boer war. Just a side-show, in preparation for the bigger operation in the years ahead. I believe the best analogy in history I can think of right now is 1930. People know things are getting bad, bu…
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Do they mention how it was all those idiotic investors, willing to buy dubious securities, or the consumers, eager to shoulder debt loads way beyond their income levels, who are the main culprits in this debacle? It was just disgusting to see how…
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Here's a surefire way to tell when we've hit bottom: no one will care. Right now it is big news when someone claims we are at a bottom because there are still a lot of people hoping to pick up bargains. When the real bottom comes, very few people wi…
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The key signal I am looking for to indicate we have reached a bottom is a full 24 months of NO deterioration in the median prices. I expect to see some false bottoms along the way to the finale. There is no need to rush to buy once we do hit bottom,…
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Ironically, the latest attempts to jump start the US credit markets are actually just adding to over-all deflationary pressures by increasing debt. http://surkanstance.blogspot.com/2009/02/ironically-latest-attempts-to-jump.html
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I blame society at large. I think it is innacurate to put all the blame on Wall Street, or even government officials and regulators. Society as a whole had become bullish, and was willing to throw caution to the wind in a massive credit boom. Can…
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Charles Dean wrote: One of the universally agreed upon things with the Depression was that one of the reasons for so many bank collapses was because of the Fed's failure to act quickly. Not really... There is considerable debate over what r…
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sushix wrote: I am looking at 5 years out and hoping that the recovery will bring housing back to today's level, which I think is possible. While it is "possible" housing prices will return back to current levels (which are already off of p…
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jon wrote: "But the real problem in the U.S. labor market today isn't layoffs. It's a hiring freeze that is gripping most work places - and has not gotten nearly as much attention as the job cuts." Redundancies aren't the only problem. An i…
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sushix wrote: assuming that housing in Seattle stays flat for the next 5 years I think it is a pretty tall assumption to think that prices won't decline much more. In fact, I believe we are in for massive price declines in the coming years,…
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rose-colored-coolaid wrote: Markor wrote: Sniglet's 80% off is looking more accurate every day. I used to think he was just plain nuts, and now it only seems mildly outside the realm of probability. Don't tell me I am now getting…
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biliruben wrote: Anyone who claims more of the same is the solution, has to explain why tax cuts were an appalling failure so far, but will work in the future. Otherwise I take their recommendation as already proven to fail. I completely a…
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biliruben wrote: Again, this complete distrust of the vast majority of economists from all over the political spectrum is flabbergasting. The data is there for anyone to see, and those who are trained to analyze it are pretty much speaking with o…
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The main lesson from the New Deal is that wholesale government intervention can - and does - deliver the most unintended of consequences. This was true in the 1930s, when artificially high wages and prices kept us depressed for more than a decade; i…
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It's possiblle that our local economy might not follow the broader nation in the big rally I see happening mid-year. We've been out of synch with the country for the last few years (only now starting to see real pain in real-estate, for example). Th…
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Actually, I am expecting there to be a significant rally in most assets (stocks, commodities, real-estate, etc) around mid-year (give or take a couple months). No market ever moves in a straight line, not even those of the bear variety. My best g…
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deejayoh wrote: Unemployment typically peaks right around the point when the economy begins growing again. Sure, but the "peak" in unemployment might come in 3 or 4 years.
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Unfortunately, I expect this is just the beginning of the layoffs. By year end 10,000 lost jobs will seem quaint. 2010 will be worse still...
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It looks like Boeing is playing a game of one-upmanship with Microsoft. They just announced another 5500 job cuts, bringing the layoff total so far to 10,000. Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Boeing Co. said it plans to cut 10,000 jobs, or about 6 percent…
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victorchai wrote: Only loans that would have a greater value if modified rather than foreclosed on qualify. And what in blazes does this mean? In theory, it is ALWAYS cheaper to modify existing mortgages rather than foreclose. The real issu…
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anforowicz wrote: You say that depositors will most likely lose their savings. Where does that leave FDIC? There is a big question of where FDIC is going to get the money to cover everyone (increased taxation or inflation are 2 options), but are…
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Most banks are technically insolvent, and the only reason they haven't already been seized by regulators is because the government simply doesn't want to take on the ENORMOUS cost of picking up the difference between the assets and liabilities of th…
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We dumped our land line about 8 years ago and went with Vonage, for IP telephony. By and large it's been great. The calls are dirt cheap, and it makes moving a breaze. Our phone number travels with us wherever we go. Unfortunately, in the last co…
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Wow! The amount of oil speculators are tucking away just keeps growing. Something like 80 million barrels of crude are now in storage and there is STILL significant demand to find additional super-tankers to store more oil. The prospects for crude a…
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I was skeptical about there being an actual company wide lay-off at Microsoft, but now I am thinking there actually might be something to it. Microsoft Corp is considering significant layoffs across its various divisions, The Wall Street Journal…
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Something dramatic is clearly occuring with the rental market. I am just AMAZED at how the volume of advertisements for 3 bed/2 bath domiciles for $1600 or less has ballooned on Craigslist in the last 3 months. Even more incredible is the desperatio…