sniglet
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As of July 2, 2010, the number of listings on ZipRealty was 149. The number of listings for 98008 has been hovering in the 100 to 120 range for quite a long time, so it seems as if there is bit more listing activity now (or a decrease in sales).
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For what it's worth, I think the recent rise in interest rates is only temporary, and coincides with the broader bear market rally we are seeing (e.g. rising prices for stocks and commodities, a declining dollar and US treasuries). When the rally en…
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I agree with the premise that the housing price decline isn't finished. However, I think the additional 10% to 15% drop the article's author suggests is wildly optimistic. An additional 60% or 70% drop (in the Seattle area anyway) is more like it.
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dls wrote: I'm considering whether things have sufficiently declined such that, with low current fixed mortgage rates and a 10+ year horizon, I could reasonably expect to at least break even if I bought today. I believe there is a strong p…
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The last thing anyone needs to worry about is missing the bottom of the real-estate market. When we hit bottom it will drag along for many years. You can feel confident the bottom has been struck if there is a 24 month time-frame with no significant…
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jjl wrote: All properties that which a bank wants to foreclosure on will receive the initial "notice of trustee's sale". Ok. I think I understand now. There cannot be a foreclosure until there is an NTS filing first. However, not all NTS fi…
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jjl wrote: The foreclosure process in Washington State is regulated under the RCW's and requires a certain process. Once a foreclosed property is taken over by a bank or investor it is filed in the county records under a Trustee's Deeds. …
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Can a property go into foreclosure without there having ever been an NTS filing?
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Is it possible for a property to go directly to "foreclosure" without there ever being a delinquency recorded in the NTS? I am just curious as to how accurate NTS is of future foreclosures. If EVERY foreclosure is always surfaced in NTS first, then …
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No surprise, but I am going to take the other side of this argument. I think it is highly likely that Seattle area real-estate prices will drop some 80% (on average) from peak values before we see a bottom to this depression. I doubt very much th…
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After dragging around in the 135 to low 140s for the winter, I now see that listings for 98008 are spiking up for the Spring. As of 4/5/2009 we have 157 listings for 98008 on ZipRealty. I couldn't help but notice that on this very pleasant week-e…
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I am certainly not one to say we should do anything to stop the changes in society, or the economy, as technology marches forward. However, it is worth pausing for a moment to recognize that some things are irretrevieably lost when we transition to …
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ira s wrote: I've heard a few people mention the possibility of a double dip recession, where there is a stock market rally for a couple of months with a significant increase , but then crashes again and goes down much further than it rallied. …
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My guess is that this swift rally will be undone, with stocks hitting new lows, within a few weeks. Dramatic rallies are almost always sell signals, and usually result from a lot of short covering. That said, I do expect that a significant rally …
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Sharp rallies (such as we saw on 3/10) are the hallmark of bear markets. Dramatic, swift, rallies ONLY occur during bear markets. Moreover, the more dramatic the uptick in stocks the more likely new lows will be reached in short order. If we were…
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Alan wrote: The last time I went we had a new Sunday school teacher who started tellings us how Christianity was wrong and stupid and anyone who believes a man could walk on water or turn water to wine was crazy. I certainly can't speak for…
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ira s wrote: Unitarians welcome and embrace atheists. Yup, you nailed it. That's the crowd I hang out with. I may not agree with everyone else in my congregation on everything, (which isn't that much of a surprise considering how the pri…
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Charles Dean wrote: So do you teach Sunday school in order to be Ironic then? Actually, my church is pretty open about accepting different beliefs. One of our pastors is an athiest. We just focus on teaching kids about values of being ki…
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Sounds like fun. Unfortunately, I have to teach a Sunday school class for pre-schoolers that day, so I'll have to give it a pass (yes, an atheist like me CAN teach Sunday school without compromising his principles). I do like the idea of having m…
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Did anyone ever hear what happened at this auction?
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Dave0 wrote: Sniglet. I always wonder after reading your posts... where are you putting your money? Are you stashing it under a mattress? Maybe shorting stocks? Just curious. My money has been almost exclusively in a variety inverse-correla…
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lamont wrote: it will take something truly apocalyptic (far beyond the great depression) for the dow to fall below 4,000 though. Even a year ago most people would have considered that a decline of the Dow to 7000 would only occur under "apo…
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Keeping a clean credit rating is often not worth taking a big financial hit. These days having a foreclosure on your record doesn't mean that much. Hey, it's not as if there will be any point in buying a new home for many years anyway. Prices are go…
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Unfortunately, wages are progressing downward quite precipitously. The offering wages for tech jobs has dropped SUBSTANTIALLY in just the last few months (several friends who are job hunting inform me of this). Compensation is also being cut in m…
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While it's fascinating to read about how Wall Street became enamoured with flawed, simplistic, mathematical formulas to determine risk, I think this is more of a symptom of the mania than the cause. Behind every bubble is a rationalization, and j…
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rose-colored-coolaid wrote: What if every middleman in a pipeline like this were required to keep at least 20% of every loan they generate on their books. You keep the "financial innovation" (which I don't believe even exists) that everyone is so…
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I still hold to the Dow 2000 prediction, but it will take some time for us to get there. In fact, I think we will see a pretty heady rally begin sometime in the next few weeks that will last for months. The Dow could even climb above 9000 before thi…
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davidlosh@davidlosh.com wrote: When you stop generating loans and just pay what's owed you put the lender out of business. The lender is converted to an investor getting interest income only. That's not the lenders business any more than being a l…
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Arguing that we need to "fix" housing in order to help the economy is the same as suggesting that you need to plant more fruit trees because many of them are dying in a drought. Housing is just a symptom of the broader hang-over from the credit boom…
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I just published a podcast contemplating why "bad" decisions often make sense (on a personal level, at least). http://msurkan.podbean.com