sniglet
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buyStocks wrote: The Tim wrote: Sniglet's prediction makes more sense now (I'm still leaning towards bottom of 4-6K). Don't forget that the Nikkei lost 80% from it's 1980s peak, which would be somewhere in the 2000 range for the D…
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I'm predicting a Dow below 2000, and maybe even below 1000 by the time we hit bottom, over the next 4 years. In the meantime I expect to see amazing multi-month rallies that will shoot up 20% or more, only to lose it all again. Bear markets are a…
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The Tim wrote: Who will write about real estate now? Maybe no one. If real-estate advertising has crashed then there is little reason to keep employing journalists to write about the industry. After all, journalists exist solely to create a…
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The Michael Lewis story is interesting, but I think it only covers part of the picture. Sure, Wall Street lost all sense of reality and morals. However, I think this is really a story about how our entire society went off the rails. Everyone was cau…
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perfectfire wrote: Two home that I was looking at have given up and are trying to sell. I think we just passed peak rents in the area. Are you saying that the rental market is so weak that some landlords are deciding to seel their properti…
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The theory about how rental properties will boom as the broader housing market tanks (i.e. since people have to live somewhere) is looking ever more spurious. It turns out that people really do downsize their housing needs when faced with a tough ec…
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It looks like it's not just loonies like me who are predicting massive asset price declines. New data from world money centers suggest the movement of money around the globe has simply ground to a halt, as institutions in the United States, Euro…
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Any last hopes people have for Boeing continuing to hold up the local economy are quickly being dashed. Financing for aircraft is going up in smoke, and it now looks like a lot of NEW planes will be going directly to rot in the desert. So much fo…
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Unfortunately, I don't think Obama will be any more successful in turning the economy around than Bush, or that McCain could have done a better job. This economic train wreck took DECADES to make and it is going to take years to unfold, regardless o…
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WestSideBilly wrote: I am thoroughly convinced the psychology of the market is now completely out of sync with reality. Actually, I think the world's stock markets have been acting quite rationally. Even with this week's rally we are still…
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StackThatCheez wrote: Over 50% foreclosure rate? Get real. The foreclosure rate in America is around 3% right now, and this has brought the world financial system to edge of total collapse. So what you're saying the situation will get nearly …
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Thomas B. wrote: I was thinking about moving to Phoenix a couple of years ago and the rental prices were about 20% cheaper than Seattle. Now it appears you can get an apartment for about half of Seattle prices. I also looked at Tampa, and it app…
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deejayoh wrote: Japanese home prices fell 80%? Ok. You make a good point. I need to be more specific in my statements. The 80% Japanese real-estate declines were in large metro areas, particularly in Tokyo. The huge Asian price declines wer…
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StackThatCheez wrote: You're talking about a complete collapse of the world economy and probably even civilization as we know it. I fail to see why an 80% or 90% drop in asset prices would constitute an "end to civilization". Japan saw an 8…
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S-Crow wrote: In my mind, way, way back there, i've always thought about the idea that some powers that be are trying to cripple us economically. I don't buy into the conspiracy theories suggesting there are evil people plotting in dark roo…
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mukoh wrote: People can live in cars or with in-laws for so long. Its a fact of life not the economy. My money for some reason is on their opinions as their experience have proved time and time again to be profitable. I don't see why liv…
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mukoh wrote: Sniglet, are people that are in foreclosure or losing their home just going to evaporate? They are going to RENT and for a long time. A family of 4 will not double up with another family of 4 in majority. There will be that 1-3% of…
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mukoh wrote: of course condos are going to become rentals if they can't sell. Thats not that much of an increase though when you are talking about 1000 units Bellevue/Seattle wide, considering there is still absorption in condos. Its not ju…
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mukoh wrote: There is a pretty good shortage of good rentals, it hasn't slowed up at least from landlords perspectives in recent months. There is a whole mess of inventory on the horizon as the huge wave of condo projects in Bellevue, Seatt…
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As we have discussed extensively on other threads, rents tend to peak right at the apex of a given real-estate market. Other regions saw their rents rise in the year or so after they reached peak housing prices, only to decline once the foreclosures…
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Thanks for reminding me about the inflation thread from February Deejayoh. Some of the comments people made about my deflation predictions certainly looking interesting now. MrRational wrote: Boy, someone sure is abusing our State's medical mar…
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Prices are falling for almost every commodity and asset these days. Stocks are falling. Real estate is falling. Soybeans, corn, wheat, and rice are falling. Oil and natural gas are falling. Lumber and cement are falling. Looking at charts of pric…
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In 1995, the Clinton administration revised the CRA to increase pressure on banks to make more loans to risky borrowers. In 1997, the first pool of subprime mortgages was securitized (by Bear Stearns!). The law regulating Fannie Mae and Freddie M…
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deejayoh wrote: how did they drive home prices up? Just ask yourself this: what would have happened to US house prices had the GSEs not existed in the first place? I think the answer is pretty simple: house prices would have been conside…
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deejayoh wrote: Sorry, this buys into the current meme that somehow CRA led to the GSEs going crazy lending all sorts of money. The facts are, that the GSEs lost share throughout the boom, because they were hampered by significantly stricter lend…
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The repeal of Glass-Steagall really wasn't all that much of a factor in spawning the credit bubble. And neither was lax regulation. In fact, it was government intervention itself which was the primary cause of the bubble. The GSEs have been subsi…
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rose-colored-coolaid wrote: I'm unconvinced MSFT will have lay offs, unless this recession becomes extremely protracted. They still have a lot of cash on hand, and if you can keep functioning at a full level while other companies are scrambling, …
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Wow! It looks like those of us who predicted the Dow would hit 10,000 in 2008 were actually too bullish...
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perfectfire wrote: I contended that our stock would go down because MS wasn't immune from the effects of the broader economy. During a recession fewer people will buy new computers and companies will spend less on IT. I'm sure we'll fare bette…
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The decline in listings for 98008 continues. Today we hit 168 listings for 98008. Properties must be selling like hot cakes...