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How often do you visit Seattle Bubble?
- Two or more times daily (32%, 85 Votes)
- Once a day (24%, 64 Votes)
- 2-6 times a week (25%, 66 Votes)
- Once a week (8%, 20 Votes)
- 2-3 times a month (4%, 11 Votes)
- Once a month (4%, 10 Votes)
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Total Voters: 263
This poll will be active and displayed on the sidebar through 03.23.2008.
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42 responses so far ↓
1
T
// Mar 16, 2008 at 12:18 am
You should have had an RSS skimming entry. I skim all of them via RSS, but visit to read a full post 2-ish times a week. RSS shouldn’t be separated from visits if readers get the full post via feed.
2
Michael
// Mar 16, 2008 at 12:47 am
-off topic sorry
I am getting more and more concerned that no one realizes the gravity of the situation. Bear Stearns almost went bankrupt last week! The fifth largest US Bank had to be saved by the Fed using depression era laws. The fed is running out of tools. I think a serious bank run is inevitable and I’m not really sure the FDIC can cover it.
What scares me the most is hearing stock analysts talk about the ups and downs in the market. For three generations Americans have not seen the type of real financial catastrophe that happens in other parts of the world. We don’t seem to be unable to truely understand what this means. The federal government’s only response is to add more debt to the problem. It seems that the panic we are trying so hard to avoid is only making the problem worse. Optomism is actually killing us. Our country has turned into a giant pyramid scheme. As long as we all keep thinking how great it is the pyramid can keep growing. Someone needs to get in front of the problem and tell America that we are in very serious trouble. The government need to tell people to put every dime we have into paying down consumer debt and government debt. I can’t see why anyone would think that ever expanding debt not going to kill us, probably sooner rather than later.
3
Ray Pepper
// Mar 16, 2008 at 3:18 am
This last week on Wall Street could NOT have been scripted any better. From Thornburg to Bear Stearns to Spitzer. We run CNBC all day at our office and I must say I was constantly stopping what I was doing to look up and listen.
From the price of oil, the dollar, housing, consumer credit deterioration, confidence, interest rates, Boeing, and Hillary and Obama I must say each and everyday when I wake up…NOW WHAT?
The Buffett is coming to an end and my oh my what a ride its going to be.
Ray Pepper
http://www.500Realty.net
4
christiangustafson
// Mar 16, 2008 at 6:50 am
I’m going to pull a few $K in cash out of the bank this week, in case of a true banking holiday / credit emergency. I should have done this by now. The rest goes to treasurydirect.gov in T-bills, to ride out this storm.
I can’t believe there are still people who look at me askance when I tell them that WaMu WILL COLLAPSE. They simply will not exist in 2010. What will Seattle look like with a giant WaMu smoking crater in it?
BTW, WaMu, thanks for the puts, you were great, want a cigarette?
I’m starting to see the car campers again here in Seattle: http://deflationland.blogspot.com
5
SeattleMoose
// Mar 16, 2008 at 8:43 am
America is under attack from the same forces that established the FED in 1913. The housing collapse was “engineered” to help expedite the collapse of America. C’mon, do you really think the FED and the power brokers didn’t know what was going on?
1) Go to YouTube and watch the Naomi Wolf video entitled “The End of America” (filmed at UW lecture).
2) Watch the Alex Jones DVD “Endgame”
clifs notes version…(from End of America lecture…10 steps to despotism)
1. Invoke a terrifying internal and external enemy
2. Create a gulag
3. Develop a thug caste
4. Set up an internal surveillance system
5. Harass citizens’ groups
6. Engage in arbitrary detention and release
7. Target key individuals
8. Control the press
9. Dissent equals treason
10. Suspend the rule of law
It is time to rip away the veil of illusion that has been cast over us…..
6
Ray Pepper
// Mar 16, 2008 at 10:11 am
Seattle Moose correct me if I’m wrong but there are Huge fundamental flaws in Naomi Wolfs End of America book.
The approval rating of the Bush Administration is well below standard indicating America is truly against the ideals that have been set in motion. America is increasingly calling for an end to the war in Iraq and the show of support for Obama type “CALL TO ACTION” behavior indicates a resistance of our Democratic America to collapse.
I do NOT believe the Bush Admistration has been able to install fear in America about our “internal enemy. ” External yes, but militant radical groups in America are very few and not viable threats.
Our media seems to support all anti-war movements with ALOT of air-time and the harassing of citizen groups is very different from what was observed in past history.
911 has triggered a series of events that has indeed caused the current state we are in. Was 911 due to happen at some point in time . OF COURSE.. Is this assault on Democracy fiction? I believe comparing any past regimes of government is beneficial but still like comparing apples to oranges.
I hope I’m correct!
7
John
// Mar 16, 2008 at 11:14 am
People look at the Dow and see it is still near 12000, so what’s the problem? How are the 401k, IRA doing? Down 10-20% is nothing. Didn’t this happen in 2000-2003? People are optimistic and believe everything will be ok after we are done with this little correction. They may very well be right because we have had many false alarms before. But all it takes is one time for the worst case scenario to become reality.
8
singliac
// Mar 16, 2008 at 12:09 pm
Wow, the weekend sure brings the crazies out. I’m sure it’ll get pretty ugly, but some of these guys sound like they are days away from hiding in the woods with a gun.
9
singliac
// Mar 16, 2008 at 12:11 pm
Amazingly enough, Ray actually sounds like the voice of reason.
10
Dave Greene
// Mar 16, 2008 at 1:07 pm
I have worked with Pepper in the past when I was flipping a home. Make no doubt about it he has a strong following. The people that know him respect his honesty and real estate saavy. He is actually very aggressive and I think he loves investors more then first time home buyers. I don’t think he has the patience for that.
Pepper why not give these bubble guys your seminar on 911 and the Greenspan put. I got a copy of it from the Boeing BBall league. I’d like to hear it live.
11
Markor
// Mar 16, 2008 at 2:05 pm
They are the same people who believe that Iraq was responsible for 9/11, and think the theory of evolution is poppycock. Unfortunately they are fully half of the population. We’re doomed by ignorance.
12
Markor
// Mar 16, 2008 at 2:11 pm
But Americans love to say one thing and do another. Come November they will again vote for a “protective daddy” in McCain, who has vowed to war for 100 years. Offense, mind you, not defense. Voters will lap up whatever falsehoods are thrown out against Obama; he’ll be swiftboated just like Kerry was. The country has become too dumb to save itself.
13
John
// Mar 16, 2008 at 2:48 pm
singliac, crazies? Why did the Fed bail out Bear Stearns on Friday? What would happen if the Fed didn’t bail them out? A financial collapse is closer than you think.
14
matthew
// Mar 16, 2008 at 4:11 pm
The fifth largest broker on Wall Street is having a bank run and is total insolvent and people are calling the doom and gloom crowd “crazy”.
Will we still be crazy when WAMU, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch and Chitibank go under?
Sorry Singliac, you look like the crazy one to me.
15
John
// Mar 16, 2008 at 4:53 pm
This is getting better. Bear Stearns got bought out for $2. No, that is not a typo.
16
deejayoh
// Mar 16, 2008 at 5:08 pm
Wow. We are in full panic mode. this is incredible
JPMorgan Chase Buys Bear Stearns for $270 Million
yup, $2/share
and it gets even better…
Fed Cuts Discount Rate, Says Dealers May Borrow
Another quarter point discount rate cut.
17
Affluent Bitter Renter
// Mar 16, 2008 at 6:05 pm
JPMorgan bought Bear for $236 million dollars - Bear’s headquarters building alone is worth about a billion. Nice securitized mortgage portfolio you’ve got there…
18
deejayoh
// Mar 16, 2008 at 6:24 pm
lol. ABR, it looks like they lost $40mm in value in the hour between your post and mine!
19
BubbleBuyer
// Mar 16, 2008 at 6:50 pm
The acquisition of Bear by JP at $2 a share is a good thing and a fair outcome especially since Bear employees will not make out like bandits. The deal values Bear at $236 million This is down from $3.5B at Fridays close. A fire sale by any token except JP will have to cover Bear’s liabilities which could be substantial.
The best thing about this deal is that Bear employees, who own about one third of outstanding shares, make nothing from the deal. i.e. they are punished for their poor performance. The integrity of the US banking system is maintained (for what it is worth) for now.
It’s a great thing when individuals are punsihed for their failings. It happens so rarely in UN business.
20
Affluent Bitter Renter
// Mar 16, 2008 at 6:52 pm
$236.2 million, according to the AP.
This will probably turn out to be American capitalism at its finest - JPMorgan can toss all the losses in Bear’s portfolio at the Fed, and then sell Bear’s HQ building and any other real assets Bear has lying around for a nice chunk of change. Given how desperate the US government to have this deal happen before the market opens on Monday, I’m sure that JPMorgan was very careful to make sure that all the losses would be picked up by the Feds.
21
Affluent Bitter Renter
// Mar 16, 2008 at 6:55 pm
“The best thing about this deal is that Bear employees, who own about one third of outstanding shares, make nothing from the deal.”
That’s not true! They are getting one and a half cents on the dollar from Bear’s stock price a year ago (LOL). More importantly, I suspect that they don’t have to give back the hefty bonus checks they’ve gotten over the last few years.
22
John
// Mar 16, 2008 at 7:31 pm
I don’t think the upper management at Bear Stearns are the ones hurt the most here. The former CEO just bought a $26 million apartment at The Plaza. Many at the firm don’t even deal with mortgage securities. These are just your regular bankers and office workers. It is like Enron where the executives have already cashed out and the traders will land at various hedge funds. The ones who are going to feel the pain are the rank and file employees who didn’t do anything wrong.
23
matthew
// Mar 16, 2008 at 7:52 pm
Dow futures down -260, barring a major overnight move by the Fed tomorrow could be another “Black Monday”!
24
Affluent Bitter Renter
// Mar 16, 2008 at 8:09 pm
Rumor over at housingpanic is that Lehman is next (their stock fell 14% on Friday).
25
Ira Sacharoff
// Mar 16, 2008 at 8:41 pm
So if JP Morgan’s butt is being covered in this deal by the Feds, essentially it’s a “privatize the profits, socialize the losses” kind of deal. Lucky us.
26
matthew
// Mar 16, 2008 at 8:48 pm
Ira,
I don’t think its that bad. The Fed is a private bank, they take collateral and only collateral that has value. They have no interest in going bankrupt themselves. Keep in mind it is only a 28 day loan at the discount window, so the loan will need to be paid back soon. If JPM can’t pay back the loan, the financial system as we know it will be in much worse shape than anything seen since the Great Depression.
27
johnnybigspenda
// Mar 16, 2008 at 8:57 pm
Doesn’t the fact that the Fed covered Bear mean that any future failures will likely be covered by the Fed? Isn’t this GOOD news?
I guess it could get past the point where the Fed actually has the ability to step in?
(time to put some money under the mattress?)
28
matthew
// Mar 16, 2008 at 9:04 pm
Johnny,
The only reason that the Fed covered BSC is because they had JPM as a middle man. Essentially JPM was on the hook for BSC, the Fed probably has no problem at this point taking collateral from JPM, BSC collateral would be a different story.
As the situation deteriorates from here, the Fed is only going to be able to do so much. I wouldn’t worry about savings accounts unless you have more than 100k in any single account. Small to medium sized banks with more exposure to the mortgage markets are going to be the most risky.
29
Michael
// Mar 16, 2008 at 9:42 pm
The Nikkei was down 550 the last time I checked. If Bear is only being valued at 236 million then it doesn’t take a genius to figure out what that the miriad of other banks with any exposure are going to get killed. Only last week Bear was saying that they were going to have a profitable quarter. When you lose 94% of you value overnight then you should really stop talking about the ups and downs of the market.
I heard about a web site run by the government will give the numbers on the stability of different banks. I’ve heard that WAMU, Wachovia and maybe Wells Fargo are in trouble. Does anyone know the url of the governement site. Which banks are not in the mortgage mess?Obviously JPM is a place to move money but what about a credit union like Boeing Credit Union?
I’m totally out of stocks and have been selling short housing and financials (SRS and SKF) so I will be all right if my bank is here in a week. I would also like to know about FDIC insurance. I’ve heard that it is incapable of handling a real bank run and has been pretty well gutted but I don’t know much about it. Can someone with real insight and experience (NOT RAY) please advise.
30
matthew
// Mar 16, 2008 at 9:51 pm
Michael,
I think you are safe with anything under 100K in a bank. You might not be able to get the money out right away, but the federal govt will get the money to you within a reasonable time.
If there is an honest to God bank run that cripples our government, your only hope is to be long guns and lead.
31
matthew
// Mar 16, 2008 at 9:53 pm
Also, most credit unions are not FDIC insured, they have a different type of insurance (can’t remember the name off the top of my head) but it is world wide backed, and many people think is actually safer than the FDIC.
32
Dan M
// Mar 16, 2008 at 9:58 pm
the only reason i come here is to read ray’s posts. Appears the only people who hate this guy are realtors and realtors. look what hes built. i live in kent and drive by his massive signs everyday on the way to work. check out his real estate company. I think the boys fear him and his red fin buddies.
33
Dan M
// Mar 16, 2008 at 10:00 pm
micheal just wonderingwhy you posted that on ray? are you a realtor? what has he said on this site that leads you to beleive he has no knowledge.?
34
Markor
// Mar 16, 2008 at 11:02 pm
The credit union insurance is done by the NCUA, the National Credit Union Association. As far as I know, it’s backed by the US gov’t, same as the FDIC.
35
Buceri
// Mar 17, 2008 at 4:13 am
Markor - “no Empire was ever defeated by its enemies; but the end is marked by the implosion caused by arrogance and ignorance.” Me.
36
old timer
// Mar 17, 2008 at 8:17 am
“The approval rating of the Bush Administration is well below standard indicating America is truly against the ideals that have been set in motion”
Yes, and the people of Tibet are really not loving their Chinese overlords either.
The guys who have the guns win, regardless of who has the Prom Queen crown.
Paying down debt is never bad unless you are a creditor earning interest.
Cash in hand is always good, especially when the neighborhood meth addict finds it.
Remember, living causes death.
The ultimate place of security is the grave.
37
deejayoh
// Mar 17, 2008 at 9:49 am
Gee, “Dan”, it’s interesting that your IP Address is exactly the same as RAY PEPPER’s.
38
The Tim
// Mar 17, 2008 at 9:51 am
Hmm… Good catch Deeyaoh. That is “interesting.”
39
Michael
// Mar 17, 2008 at 12:31 pm
Dan or Ray?
Three reasons I think Ray or Dan knows nothing.
1. His web site 500reality has a Google PR of 3. That means that NO ONE GOES TO OR LINKS TO THE SITE.
2. The IP thing.
3. Everything he posts is full of buzzwords and catch phrases as opposed to knowledge or substance just like every other salesman on the planet. I had a VC job that required me to qualify companies technical claims for Venture Capital so I have at least a decent undertstanding of online BS.
40
Ray Pepper
// Mar 17, 2008 at 1:25 pm
I have just sent an email to ALL Agents/Affiliates at 500 Realty and the investors to read the last few blogs.
If anyone here is trying to PUMP us up, its not necessary and as Tim said makes me look bad. We have 6 terminals here at the office and 2 postings came from here according to Tim.
I will say this again as I did on The News Tribune 8 months ago. Please stop.
41
Michael
// Mar 17, 2008 at 2:19 pm
Ray, please don’t ever change.
42
Ray Pepper
// Mar 17, 2008 at 5:34 pm
Michael…Are you trying to Grind my Gears? …. Step in line….Its a long one!
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