Poll Update: Dow Drops Below 10,000

Anybody remember the June 8 poll:

Do you think the Dow Jones will drop below 10,000 in the next year?

  • Yes (42%, 74 Votes)
  • No (58%, 101 Votes)

Total Voters: 175


Sorry to say, but 58% of you were wrong:

Dow drops below 10k

That took less than 4 months, for those of you keeping score at home. Also note the July 13 follow-up, in which only 30% guessed incorrectly.

I just thought I’d point this out to those that are accusing this site of being “too negative” or all “doom and gloom” lately. Unfortunately, negative news is the reality these days. Better to face it head on than close our eyes, plug our ears, and pretend everything in the short term will just magically work out great.

  

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

60 comments:

  1. 1
    Ben says:

    I just thought I’d point this out to those that are accusing this site of being “too negative” or all “doom and gloom” lately.

    Of course, I think people’s criticism isn’t so much that people think that bad things will probably happen, but that they receive a gleeful pleasure from that expectation.

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  2. 2
    Thomas B. says:

    I think I said not below 11,000. I never would have thought it would drop below 10,000. Despite the housing market, I thought, at the time, that the economy was not in terrible shape. I assumed that the economy and housing was disconnected. The reason I thought this was back in the late 1990s and early 2000s, the economy was not in great shape, but housing prices, construction, and housing related businesses still had great growth. This didn’t make sense to me and I assumed that housing and the economy became disconnected. I guess there were other factors I did not account for.

    On a side note, who are the winners in this housing market. I think there are going to be two winners once the dust settles; mega-banks and the small local bank. Mega-banks, like JP Morgan Chase, wins because they have the cash to wait out the downturn/housing bust and they bought assets that will help them in the future (i.e. bank locations for pennies on the dollar). Small local banks will win also because they didn’t lend like the other banks. They had to be conservative with their portfolio because they don’t have access to a lot of cash. Now they are going to be the only alternative for several people and businesses. I think that they will have growth in their lending, but they will still remain conservative in their policies. It is my belief that small banks will become popular. Although, once the economy picks up, there may be a merger/acquisition mania.

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  3. 3
    anony says:

    The people who still have a median wage job and can finally buy a decent house without mortgaging away their future will also be winners, at least compared to those who bought a crack house with a $400K ARM or who were priced out in the “boom” the last few years. Maybe not compared to our parents who could simply expect reasonable housing affordability when they started out, if they were disciplined enough to save a down payment.

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  4. 4
    Ron says:

    Unbelievable that here of all places there is so many people that think that 10,000 will hold? Ive never doubted it for a second that were heading for possibly 8000 to 9000 and hopefully that will hold.

    There is so many reasons that 10,000 wouldn’t hold just like housing prices will Most likely overshoot and end up back at 2000 prices or maybe worse, then again worse is worse for some much better for others… maybe bad for all, if you catch my drift. However California is seeing possibly 2000 prices here soon and seems people are still alive down there.

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  5. 5
    mark says:

    How about Dow 8000?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  6. 6
    david losh says:

    The stock market has been a mystery to me since 2000. The federal government stepped in to confront a monopoly, namely Microsoft. The Dow went down by a lot, but nowhere near it’s over inflated tech stock run up.

    Tech, dot com, or new venture makes no difference to me. The value of the stocks should, as in housing, be based on tangible assets. Then we had the introduction of the term “Intellectual Properties.”

    Microsoft stock was based on the worth of their “Intellectual Properties.” What a crock. We were told that if Microsoft was to lose monopoly standing the INTERNET, personal computer, and technology development would cease to exist.

    I think the Dow should have maxed out at 8000, to be generous, but the Real Estate housing market stepped in to drive prices up again. Now we can clearly see that it was not the value of the housing units, but the mortgage backed securities created that drove up the price of stocks.

    So if the Dow sinks to 8,000 or even below, in my opinion, we would be at evens compared to actual value. In 1995 with the introduction of Windows 95 the Dow was at 4400, why would it double or triple since then?

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  7. 7
    SeattleMoose says:

    It will be between 5k and 7K before this is over…..a lot of folks here obviously still are in denial about how bad this really is.

    It is going to be quite simply, the worst economic disaster the world has ever faced. The banks embraced the “fictional reserve lending system” and now the gigantic pile of debt is leaning and starting to fall over.

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  8. 8
    vboring says:

    Buffet says we should buy fear, sell greed and fear today is the highest he’s ever seen.

    OTOH, i’m afraid the world financial system is falling apart – and we’ve just barely started to see what happens when the ARMs reset to their permanent rates – or what happens when all real estate globally declines in value simultaneously (except for Germany and Japan, every modern economy plus the BRIC have collapsing RE values). Maybe fear should win the day.

    Shiller says the best investment today is foreign cash and gold. I think the only reasonable foreign cash investment today is the Yen. Many other currencies could pretty easily turn into confetti.

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  9. 9
    Garth says:

    I am in Cannes in France right now, and the news and people here are event more freaked out than anything I have seen in the us. Apparently there is no FDIC like entity in any of the EU countries.

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  10. 10
    vboring says:

    Garth,

    There is no FDIC in Europe, but various national gov’ts have declared that all deposits are temporarily 100% insured. Ireland was the first to announce such an effort.

    The first Eurozone country to to declare deposit insurance will attract deposits from the countries without insurance, so it is just a matter of time before all of them have it.

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  11. 11
    Demersus says:

    Don’t do business with commercial banks, find a good credit union or two and start the transition. Credit Unions aren’t driven by taking huge risks to maximize profits. They are member owned; every dollar you have in deposit it essentially a share in the union. This keeps fees and the cost of borrowing low and interest earned a bit higher than with fat cat banks.

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  12. 12
    S-Crow says:

    Thomas B said, …”Small local banks will win also because they didn’t lend like the other banks. They had to be conservative with their portfolio because they don’t have access to a lot of cash. Now they are going to be the only alternative for several people and businesses.”

    I would agree, but some small banks, while not lending in the sense that you mention, are heavily levered in land and lent mightily to local builders who are having a tough time (understatement).

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  13. 13
    David McManus says:

    It is going to be quite simply, the worst economic disaster the world has ever faced.

    Agreed, but I also believe that when it’s all said and done, there will be a LOT of money to be made. The problem is knowing when that time is.

    I’m staying in the safe investments for now….

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  14. 14
    Sniglet says:

    Well, I will go so far as to say that the Dow will go below 5000 by 2012 (could be sooner). It will hit 8000 within the next year (and could go even lower).

    I expect there to be some rip-roaring multi-month rallies that recover 15% or 20% of the index along the way to 5000, but I think we will get there.

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  15. 15

    I too was wrong. I predicted that the dow would fall to under 11,000, but not to 10,000.
    I won’t predict how far it’ll fall now…Whoever becomes President is going to be inheriting one helluva mess.

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  16. 16
    David McManus says:

    I’m actually looking forward to changed social mindsets….the idea of saving up for items instead of the rampant consumerism that has absolutely destroyed the fabric of our society. It will be interesting to see how companies like Nordy’s, SBUX, etc. hold up through this prolonged downturn.

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  17. 17
    casey1167 says:

    I was going for the under 10,000, but have also been suprised how fast it happened. What has really been suprising is how well the dollar has held up. My thought is the DOW is going to slow its decline, and hold, but the dollar will tank in the next six months….

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  18. 18
    The Tim says:

    P.S. – Meanwhile, Seattle Bubble traffic is at all-time highs, despite the complaints some have voiced lately that the site has become irrelevant or uninteresting.

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  19. 19
    Ray Pepper says:

    I’m eating crow as well. Taking my lumps on my 85k Long of EGHT!! Come on everybody Buy so I can sell!! Good Lord……..LUV, NTAP, MCHX, GOOG, FFIV, CHTR, SIRI, RAD, ………..the bloodletting uggghhhhhhh

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  20. 20
    mark says:

    September real estate stats should be out any day now. Bet they gunna be ugly.

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  21. 21
    rent for now says:

    RE bubble….easy to sidestep.
    Market crash – down 30% in one year!, missed that one…

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  22. 22
    Herman says:

    I was also on the side that didn’t see 10,000 coming. Congratulations to whoever went on record with that prediction.

    I think a relevant question is whether the aggregate wisdom of this site will be able to call the bottom. It seems like the formula for this site is that no matter how bad things are, the users predict that it will get worse. Back in the 11,000 days, you didn’t read people posting targets of 5000, and now you do.

    I just can’t imagine the users here turning positive or bullish on the DOW or housing markets. That will be the true test of whether this site is of enduring value or not.

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  23. 23
    The Tim says:

    Herman,

    Back in the 11,000 days, you didn’t read people posting targets of 5000, and now you do.

    Well, maybe you didn’t read it, but people were certainly posting such predictions:

    Eleua // Jun 9, 2008 at 9:40 pm

    I don’t see why a historically overpriced stock market would hold above the 10K level. I think Japan’s market, as well as our own in the 30s might be a guide.

    My target is the 6000s with sub-5K being possible.

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  24. 24
    Sniglet says:

    Back in the 11,000 days, you didn’t read people posting targets of 5000, and now you do.

    Well, I for one was predicting Dow 5000 back in June of 2007 (see link below). In fact, I called for Dow 2500.

    http://seattlebubble.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=412&st=0&sk=t&sd=a

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  25. 25
    TJ_98370 says:

    With respect to this site being “too negative” –
    .
    During this last weekend, the newspaper in my locality had more “negative” articles about the economy / real estate than I have ever seen before. I was struck by the stark departure from the “happy talk” just a few weeks ago. The MSM is devoting a lot of time and space to the problems of the current economy and the Seattle Bubble is hardly exceeding what the MSM is doing right now.
    .
    Yes there is some misplaced exuberance amongst some posters, but I read that as being an emotional demonstration of validation of those who have been predicting for months that the sh*t was about to hit the fan.
    .
    For myself, I am just trying to get the big picture and understand what is going on. I tend to post MSM articles / features that clarified some of the issues for me and I hope others find them informative. I am not cheering for a meltdown, far from it. To hope for a depression is blatant stupidity IMO.
    .

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  26. 26
    vboring says:

    TJ,

    when you agree with the MSM about investments, it is time to rethink your positions.

    GE is basically free today, but i can’t bring myself to buy in b/c i have no idea what their accounting department is trying to hide. How do you evaluate P/Es when all of the pertinent facts are hidden?

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  27. 27
    Thomas B. says:

    While I agree with most of what is said on this site and share the views that there was a bubble and the bubble has burst in a big way, I want to act as the “devils advocate” or antagonist in this post.

    I want to make the bold prediction that while greed got us in to this situation, greed, oddly enough, will get us out of this situation. Banks and investors can’t sit on their money forever. They have to invest it somewhere. Those that are motivated, greedy, and smart will find arbitrage opportunities to position themselves. Some will try to be market makers. People won’t sit on their money and the credit markets won’t freeze, because someone somewhere wants to make more that a couple of percentage points on their money. And of course, there are people that want to make a quick buck, but you can’t make money without spending a little.

    Prediction: Market and Economy will recover quicker than most people think. 12,000 by end of 2009.

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  28. 28
    anony says:

    RE # 25 “During this last weekend, the newspaper in my locality had more “negative” articles about the economy / real estate than I have ever seen before.”

    The Seattle Times had an article this weekend on deciding when to buy. They actually had such crazy concepts as

    “You need to consider the state of your finances”

    “If your job isn’t settled, please don’t buy,”

    “draw up an estimate of what their budget will be after they buy”

    “People have to be serious enough about it to collect a down payment first,”

    “Anybody who is midcareer, we’ve got too much house if we can’t put a lot of money in a 401(k) plan,”

    “A buyer considering an alternative loan, such as one with an interest-only payment or an adjustable rate, should “try out the worst-case scenario” and see if the budget can handle it”

    I never thought I’d see the day when they allowed such negativity in the Times. I certainly haven’t read anything like it in the last 8 years.

    http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/realestate/2008226349_firsthome05.html

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  29. 29
    TJ_98370 says:

    vboring –
    .
    I heard Warren Buffet is buying / has bought $3 billion worth of GE preferred stock. What’s with that?

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  30. 30
    Herman says:

    Tim – this site would benefit from a way to put our predictions publicly on file somewhere, where they can be retrieved more easily than blog text.

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  31. 31
    TJ_98370 says:

    anony –

    Wow! It’s incredible that the Seattle Times would print such negative common sense advice.

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  32. 32

    Sniglet said: “Well, I for one was predicting Dow 5000 back in June of 2007 (see link below). In fact, I called for Dow 2500.”

    Nobody’s ever called Sniglet “overly optimistic”.

    …But I sure hope he’s wrong, even though he’s looking smarter and smarter as the days progress, dammit.

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  33. 33
    David McManus says:

    My question is how much we gonna drop today.

    Down 625 with a little less than 2 hours left.

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  34. 34
    vboring says:

    it is likely to be the lowest close since 2003 – insane.

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  35. 35
    B&W Nikes says:

    Anyone else think this is the outcome of the policies of the Executive and by extension, the Fed and Treasury policies to ameliorate the fallout from the dot-bomb followed by a 9-11 chaser? We are still up something like 1.5% from October, 2001. I hate to say it, but could you argue that, even though we are not even close to keeping up with inflation, the strategy may have had some benefit? No doubt, the unintended consequences are worse than imagined, and that is a confluence of some pretty powerful circumstances.

    Greenspan is on the record saying that they were extremely worried about deflation in 2002 and that had a huge influence on the policies that brought us the artificially low interest rates.
    http://www.federalreserve.gov/FOMC/minutes/20021106.htm

    It’s likely that we will get to the low point they were afraid of then, but the debt burden on every constituent will be higher than it ever has, including during the catastrophic first half of the last century.

    It’s really weird that the gutting of Glass-Steagall by banking lobbyists through Sen. Gramm ( R) and Rep. Leach ( R) in 1999 is getting zero attention. Is it really just too arcane to explain in 90 seconds on the tv? The whole thing is eerily similar to “Lord of the Flies,” with D.C. being the island.

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  36. 36
    David McManus says:

    Have we finally reached the point where someone who says “Real estate always goes up” or “Real estate is a great investment” is treated like a pariah?

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  37. 37
    David McManus says:

    An email from my 401k admin over the weekend:

    “The Principal Financial Group® is a company focused on helping customers achieve long-term financial security. We closely monitor and actively manage holdings in our investment options available to retirement plan participants.

    Because of the current state of the real estate market, The Principal® has taken action to protect participants’ interests in the Principal U.S. Property Separate Account (“Separate Account”). We are implementing a pre-existing contractual limitation in your group annuity contract which will allow us to manage the Separate Account and satisfy withdrawal requests over time and fairly among all those who request a withdrawal.

    Effective Friday, September 26, 2008 at 12:01 a.m. Central Time, we are applying a built-in contractual limitation which will delay the payment of most withdrawal requests. Those requests will be honored proportionately as sufficient cash becomes available for distribution, in accordance with the terms of your group annuity contract. This limitation applies only to this Separate Account and does not apply to other retirement plan separate accounts or Principal Mutual Funds.

    Background

    The Separate Account, managed by Principal Real Estate Investors, LLC, is unlike most other retirement plan investment options because it invests primarily in owned real estate rather than securities. These holdings include developed, commercial properties such as warehouses, office buildings and retail properties. Unlike public securities sold on an exchange, real estate assets are sold in private transactions that take a period of time.

    The recent turmoil in the credit markets has compounded already challenging conditions in the real estate market, resulting in a sharp slowdown in the sale of commercial real estate assets. In addition, cash flows out of the Separate Account have outpaced new contributions as investors have decided to engage in rebalancing transactions or otherwise move assets from real estate to other investment strategies.

    While the Separate Account has historically maintained sufficient cash to satisfy withdrawal requests, the combination and duration of these market factors has prompted the decision by The Principal to implement a withdrawal limitation for the first time in the 26-year history of the Separate Account.

    The pre-existing contractual limitation allows Principal Real Estate Investors to manage the Separate Account consistent with its investment strategy and objectives. It also provides for payment of withdrawal requests over time proportionately among all customers. While available cash from future sales of real estate assets will be used in part to satisfy withdrawal requests, Principal Real Estate Investors will continue to manage the Separate Account, including use of available cash, in the best interests of plan participants. Sales will not be made under unfavorable circumstances in order to have cash available for withdrawals or any other purpose.

    Outstanding withdrawal requests will be paid proportionately with other pending requests as sufficient cash becomes distributable, as determined by Principal Life Insurance Company. Payments will be based upon the unit value as of the date of the distribution.

    Death and disability benefits are not affected by this limitation and will be processed as usual. In addition, transfers and contributions into this Separate Account are being accepted as usual.

    Gains, losses, and cash flows related to this Separate Account do not affect the general account of Principal Life Insurance Company or any other separate account.”

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  38. 38
    David McManus says:

    I think we’re closing down 1K today.

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  39. 39
    Charles Dean says:

    We may see sub 9000 before the day is out.

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  40. 40
    mark says:

    “I heard Warren Buffet is buying / has bought $3 billion worth of GE preferred stock. What’s with that?”

    Warren got himself a sweetheart deal. The CEO of GE came out a few days before that announcement and affirmed prior earnings guidance. A few days later earning expectations were lowered and GE also announced that they were selling more common stock to raise capital. The lowered earnings expectations were attributed to trouble in GE’s finance arm.

    Warren Buffett was sold preffered shares with a yeild of 10% per year so that GE could tell the markets, “Look we’re fine, Warren Buffet thinks we’re solid”.

    Goldman Sachs did essentially the same thing a short time ago.

    It pays to be Warren.

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  41. 41
    Timber says:

    All I can say is that I’m glad the house passed the bailout last week preventing the crash of the stock markerts around the globe from Friday to Monday. Since the 700 billion dollar bill passed Friday afternoon till now the Dow has lost over 1,000 points. The main purpose of the bill was to restore confidence and as you can see by the outcome it has worked wonderfully.

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  42. 42
    David McManus says:

    #41, maybe we should pressure our congressmen to repeal it. At least we can help out my children’s children’s children’s children.

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  43. 43
    Timber says:

    LOL repealing it would be a good plan but I’m guessing that right now the money is being spent as I type this at astronomical speed.

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  44. 44
    tlw says:

    Tim,

    With record traffic to seattlebubble, how’s its income stream? I haven’t seen you updated “revenue checkup” on thatchmound for a while. Wrt to the Dow, what was your prediction?

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  45. 45
    rent for now says:

    pull those 10k hats out again…

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  46. 46
    David McManus says:

    Just watching the past 10 minutes……I’ll revise my estimate of down 1K and say down a hundred. Crisis averted. Get out there and buy a house.

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  47. 47
    Timber says:

    Why do I get the feeling that part of the $700 billion dollar bailout went towards propping up the stock market during the last couple of hours today.

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  48. 48
    Charles Dean says:

    And once again, the short sellers and speculators make a small fortune in day trading. Thanks guys!

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  49. 49
    deejayoh says:

    :
    I think we’re closing down 1K today.

    We may see sub 9000 before the day is out.

    I’m betting on the bounce.

    I bet my buddy it would close at 9,950 today at about 10AM when it was sitting at 9,800

    Now down only 360. Looking good right now.

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  50. 50
    The Tim says:

    deejayoh,

    Hope you made some good money on that bet. Right now it looks like the close was 9,955.50. Nice guess.

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  51. 51
    deejayoh says:

    just a friendly, unfortunately!

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  52. 52
    Yesler Hill says:

    Hey, I’ve been harping on the abolition of the Glass-Steagall Act, that and the abolition of federal usry laws in 1980. I think both of those events have greatly contributed to where we are today, ecconomically speaking. And politically, more people with more money to bribe, er, donate to, more politicians to keep the bubble going. But the poster above is right; the MSM hasn’t even tried to look back over the last 28 years and figure out how we got here. I bet they don’t, scare people to much, make their DC friends all look bad.

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  53. 53
    buyStocks says:

    Hey,
    I think mainstream public has become even more pessimistic than this site with 6 of 10 americans thinking were gonna go into a depression. Why are people so stupid; mainstream media talks up the real estate market so people buy buy buy, then a day later mainstream media talks up dire days so people sell, sell, sell. People are losing wealth left and right without thinking. The good news to this hype is that all the repub’s will be voted out.
    I think once the panic subsides and people start focusing on the next newsworthy item (some underage gymnast stuck in a drainpipe), that we rise back to 10.5K and hold steady for several weeks, then slowly drop with the recession to a reasonable level of 8K (my very uneducated speculation).

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  54. 54
    mukoh says:

    buyStocks,
    Its a cycle, whether it goes down more or not, there will be a time to buy.

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  55. 55
    TJ_98370 says:

    .
    B&W Nikes said:
    .
    It’s really weird that the gutting of Glass-Steagall by banking lobbyists through Sen. Gramm ( R) and Rep. Leach ( R) in 1999 is getting zero attention. Is it really just too arcane to explain in 90 seconds on the tv? The whole thing is eerily similar to “Lord of the Flies,” with D.C. being the island.
    .
    It’s getting attention now. I watched some commentator on CNN explain how the current problems are all the Congress’s fault for not reading / understanding the bill repealing the Glass-Steagall Act. Apparently they were in a hurry to take their 1999 Christmas break.
    .
    WSJ provides this prospective:
    .
    Bill v. Barack on Banks
    .
    A running cliché of the political left and the press corps these days is that our current financial problems all flow from Congress’s 1999 decision to repeal the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933 that separated commercial and investment banking. Barack Obama has been selling this line every day. Bill Clinton signed that “deregulation” bill into law, and he knows better.
    .
    In BusinessWeek.com, Maria Bartiromo reports that she asked the former President last week whether he regretted signing that legislation. Mr. Clinton’s reply: “No, because it wasn’t a complete deregulation at all. We still have heavy regulations and insurance on bank deposits, requirements on banks for capital and for disclosure. I thought at the time that it might lead to more stable investments and a reduced pressure on Wall Street to produce quarterly profits that were always bigger than the previous quarter.”
    .
    “But I have really thought about this a lot. I don’t see that signing that bill had anything to do with the current crisis. Indeed, one of the things that has helped stabilize the current situation as much as it has is the purchase of Merrill Lynch by Bank of America, which was much smoother than it would have been if I hadn’t signed that bill.”…..
    .
    ……As for the sins of “deregulation” more broadly, this is a political fairy tale. The least regulated of our financial institutions — hedge funds — have posed the least systemic risks in the current panic. The big investment banks that got into the most trouble could have made the same mortgage investments before 1999 as they did afterwards. One of their problems was that Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns weren’t diversified enough. They prospered for years through direct lending and high leverage via the likes of asset-backed securities without accepting commercial deposits. But when the panic hit, this meant they lacked an adequate capital cushion to absorb losses.
    .
    Meanwhile, commercial banks that had heavier capital requirements were struggling to compete with the Wall Street giants throughout the 1990s. Some of the deposit-taking banks that were allowed to diversify after 1999, such as J.P. Morgan and Bank of America, are now in a stronger position to withstand the current turmoil. They have been able to help stabilize the financial system through acquisitions of Bear Stearns, Washington Mutual, Merrill Lynch and Countrywide Financial.
    .
    Mr. Obama’s “deregulation” trope may be good politics, but it’s bad history and is dangerous if he really believes it. The U.S. is going to need a stable, innovative financial system after this panic ends, and we won’t get that if Mr. Obama and his media chorus think the answer is to return to Depression-era rules amid global financial competition. Perhaps the Senator should ask the former President for a briefing.

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  56. 56
    Jay says:

    I don’t think that this site has become too negative. I do think that it has become somewhat less objective.

    Regarding stocks, it’s time to look for opportunities.

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  57. 57
    LUC says:

    Jay,

    Time is not now to look for opportunities. Anyone putting money in the stock market now will end up losing money. The fourth quarter is going to be brutal for most companies.

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  58. 58
    Vikram says:

    I am sure peoples view about US stock markets and US $ will change when they hear a 53 trillion $ debt, a ticking fiscal bomb. Keep spending…. you will wnd up in a great great depression

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  59. 59
    B&W Nikes says:

    That was really interesting TJ. I read that largely as Bartiromo and Clinton giving CYA responses to the WSJ who has an unapologetic deregulatory bias and a stake in comparing Obama to FDR in a sideways socialist allegation to scare the heck out of their ultra conservative base readership. The partisanship in this is bizarre – it really is like the kids burning down the island.

    My understanding, though admittedly limited, is that in he late 80s around the same time Greenspan, a former JP Morgan exec, was appointed to the FED these 1930s firewalls between commercial and investment lenders began to be loopholed vigorously and ultimately disassembled, succumbing to decades of pressures from the banking industry lobbies. Sure the regs were relics in the face of modern electronic commerce, but their intent was aimed at guiding herd behavior which is a timeless thing. Remember that while imperfect, the barriers between entities were erected because most believed (and still do) that market speculation played a major role in the crash of 1929. Particularly institutional level speculation using the uninsured resources of small investors accumulated throughout the go-go 20s. The similarity in behavioral pattern to what we see now is remarkable.

    The panic of 1907 gave us the Fed, 1929 crash gave the FDIC, I wonder what systemic improvements 2008 will bring?

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  60. 60
    Ellie Quint says:

    Posting a thought. Dow will close about 62% lower than the highest high in 2007. About 5250. When? … soon. Will that be a bottom?

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