Posted by: Timothy Ellis (The Tim)

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

14 responses to “Case-Shiller Tiers: Synchronized Dropping”

  1. Teacher_Greg

    I guess except for The Tim, Seattle Bubble likes to sleep in. Perhaps you are all too busy watching CNBC or something. Is it correct to view the bottom tier as a leading indicator due to people attempting to “move up” yadda yadda yadda. Or is it more of a regional phenomona whereby lower tier houses tend to be clustered outside the city or in lower economic status neighborhoods so they are harder hit.

    On another note, just a public shout out to Seattle Bubble for saving (and making) me untold amounts of money in this once in a lifetime housing event. This blog and the people who comment here have been consistently ahead of “the professionals” at every step of the way. As another aside, do you think most of the talking heads actual believe what they are saying/writing or is it just part of their job?

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  2. LeftOverpricedSeattle

    I think most talking heads are too busy drinking their own kool-aid to really see what’s happening. It’s like the “It can’t happen here” mantra proclaimed by those who are refusing to see the handwriting on the wall.

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  3. Buceri

    As another aside, do you think most of the talking heads actual believe what they are saying/writing or is it just part of their job?

    “It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it.” Upton Sinclair

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  4. casey1167

    Is the (historical) information available to put average rental rates using Jan 00 as 100?

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  5. Ardell DellaLoggia

    The Tim,

    Can you provide a link to, or describe for me, what constitutes the parameters for the tiers? If it is sold price, what are the price breaks from tier to tier?

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  6. Kevin

    wall street journal has “Economists Predict Home Prices Will Bottom Next Year”

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  7. Thomas B.

    I believe Seattle is far from the bottom. Prices still don’t make sense. People are still listing properties at unsustainable prices.


    Condos going for the high $200Ks is not a reasonable price. In 2004, this condo sold for $190K, which is more reasonable. If people would just list at prices close to the 2004 numbers, then I think people will start buying. With banks now having higher credit requirements, the recession, and the upcoming mortgage reform, the pool of people willing and able to buy has shrunk and will continue to shrink. I think it would be in the best interest of sellers and realtors to accept the fact that the pool of buyers has permanently shrunk and price accordingly.

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  8. deejayoh
  9. jonness


    Your House Prices graph shows the U.S. correcting dramatically faster than Japan and having ran up a lot higher. However, if you look at the 6 largest cities in Japan, you’ll notice they ran up and corrected at a rate more similar to the U.S. This makes me wonder if we are not in line for a little faster correction initially with the overall trend still remaining down for many years to come?

    Japan Bubble

    One thing I do notice is the higher the prices get out of whack, the faster they correct.

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  10. On a clear day you can see the bottom

    I’m just curious, but are the tiers syncronyzed in other cities? I don’t know what it means either way, but it might be illuminating.

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  11. Buceri

    Recession? What are you talking about, Thomas B.? Didn’t you hear, Bernanke and friends cut rates to 1% today, saving us from recession. Crisis averted.

    Yeap, nothing better to tackle smoking, than to make cigarettes cheaper.

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  12. deejayoh


    Joness –
    I like your chart of the Japanese housing a bit better. The Economist version uses land prices, not housing – which is not totally representative. I pulled it more for the interest rate policy comparison than for the housing comparison.

    If you have the data underneath that “6 largest cities” line it would be interesting to make our own comparative version

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