Latest state unemployment figures came out yesterday. Here’s a brief look.
Seattle area’s (King/Snohomish) unemployment rate (not seasonally adjusted):
And here’s a graph that I created for Sound Housing Quarterly, which shows the percentage change year-over-year in various job categories, also for King/Snohomish:
If you take out construction, finance/real estate, and retail, the number of jobs in the Seattle area only dropped by 0.75% from June ‘08 to June ‘09. Including those sectors, it fell 3.97%.
Note that the flattening in the line for construction in above chart does not indicate that the job losses have subsided, merely that the rate of job losses is no longer accelerating. As of June, the number of construction jobs in the Seattle area had fallen around 15% year-over-year for three months in a row.
Magnolia44 » Jul 15, 2009 at 9:57 am
*crickets*
Not trying to be funny, it appears as the doom and gloom talk is becoming tired. We have not fallen off the map and that has affeceted this site, and yes we are still in decline but what’s new?
I have the same feeling about the stock market and the various stock boards I read, there is a big sham going on but talking about it is pointless.
Anyhow good luck, if I am way off let me know but readership seems down and so do the number of interesting topics.
The Tim » Jul 15, 2009 at 10:07 am
RE: Magnolia44 @ 1
July 1 – July 14, 2008:
16 substantive posts, average of 65 comments, 33,670 visits (per Google Analytics).
July 1 – July 14, 2009:
14 substantive posts, average of 53 comments, 36,627 visits (per Google Analytics).
Acerun » Jul 15, 2009 at 10:12 am
RE: The Tim @ 2 –
Tim that is awesome, but I think I need some flashy graphics to truly understand what you are trying to say. :)
Joel » Jul 15, 2009 at 10:15 am
RE: Magnolia44 @ 1 – You’re way off.
sasha055 » Jul 15, 2009 at 10:19 am
Tim, I don’t really understand what you wanted to say…
Except construction, if jobs only fell down by 0.75% why is it so hard to find a job?
I have a number of friends that are looking for a job for over 6 month now.. and it’s in both IT and retail, nobody even answers e-mail anymore:)
Thanks
Sasha
The Tim » Jul 15, 2009 at 10:22 am
RE: sasha055 @ 5 – Well keep in mind that the numbers in that chart are simply showing the year-over-year change in the raw number of jobs in each sector. This is essentially the “supply” side of the supply and demand picture for jobs. What you’re not seeing is the demand side, which is presumably increasing due to:
So even if the number of available jobs is mostly stable, unemployment can still go up as the number of people in the job pool rises.
jon » Jul 15, 2009 at 10:41 am
I like the pretty colors in the second chart, but there is only 2 1/2 years of data shown, and yet it is YOY data (seasonally adjusted?). YOY make sense if the data is so noisy that monthly values are not useful, but if you want to look at it close up like that, it becomes a mix between current data and data points that are 12 months old. I would prefer either more years of data or look at the actual monthly changes, because that is what the associated text is talking about.
The Tim » Jul 15, 2009 at 10:50 am
RE: jon @ 7 – I realized after posting it that YOY the seasonally-adjusted data will look the same as the non-seasonally-adjusted data. I don’t get the point you’re trying to make though about the text referring to monthly changes. All of my comments are about the YOY trends.
Softwarengineer » Jul 15, 2009 at 11:04 am
IF ONLY WE’D SPEND THE $787B STIMULUS LAST FEBRUARY
Its only 5% spent to date.
Then we can finish the bridges to nowhere and hire back the construction workers; you know, the four construction workers in orange jackets with clipboards watching the one worker dig in a hole [or the three sitting in the air conditioned van]….that close roads like 2nd Ave down to a lane or two, for a month or two….sounds wonderful.
Then we can claim the traffic conjestion is horrible and we need a tax on car milage driven too, with a 44% decrease in gas use since 2006 too…LOL
The Tim » Jul 15, 2009 at 11:08 am
RE: jon @ 7 – Oh also I should point out that all the data is readily available for anyone interested to download in Excel format direct from the state. I should have included the link in my post (I’ll update to add it in), but here it is.
Softwarengineer » Jul 15, 2009 at 11:09 am
RE: The Tim @ 6 – RE: Softwarengineer @ 9 –
MAYBE THE $12B TO COMMUNITY COLLEGES WILL HELP RETRAIN US?
Assuming the “jobs that aren’t ever coming back [per Obama]” will be replaced with magical new ones, that no one has a clear grasp what that means.
jon » Jul 15, 2009 at 11:23 am
By The Tim @ 8:
I’m just being fussy. Something about “15% year-over-year for three months in a row” bugs me. It doesn’t say if it has been flat for three months or simply that the rate of decline happens to match what it was 12 months ago. If you are talking about three months of data, why not just use the percentage change over three months?
what goes up must come down » Jul 15, 2009 at 11:25 am
Mag44 can I ask if you find this site boring or not worth your time WHY do you still come here? I know habit or you just stop by once in a while — blah, blah, blah that makes sense only for the short term and you said that before but you still come back WHY? I believe it is because you want to see data that shows that things have bottomed and therefore the choice you made will not get worse.
truthtold » Jul 15, 2009 at 11:26 am
@2 Thank You, Tim. This has not gone unnoticed and your data is awful helpful. An afternoon of crafts could provide the contributor valuable entertainment and is more beneficial to this forum. Art therapy is highly constructive.
Back to topic…the numbers understate large pool of illegal workers (soft costs) and contractors or subs under LLC status, no? Would like more input from those with big stake…workers. Escrow workers for instance see it all and have so very much to advise. These views are informative and firsthand! albeit humble and subdued.
Let’s hear more from the trenches and less from the bluff.
Eric Arrr » Jul 15, 2009 at 11:52 am
Missed headline opportunity:
CONTRACTING JOBS CONTRACTING
mojo » Jul 15, 2009 at 1:14 pm
RE: Magnolia44 @ 1 –
I read this blog every day, but I rarely comment. I read RCG once a week for a different perspective. Regardless of whether the market goes up or down, I think the type of information presented in this forum will be useful to me until I’ve either decided to move out of Washington or purchase the last house I’ll ever own.
singliac » Jul 15, 2009 at 1:19 pm
RE: Eric Arrr @ 15 – nice.
EastsideRealEstateAgent » Jul 15, 2009 at 1:25 pm
See, this is proof that things aren’t so bad.
Construction jobs still here
Microsoft stock went up $1.04 today!!
Boeing isnt going anywhere.
And the Californians are coming back!! Personally I think that by this time next year, prices will be at or near 2006 levels.
Buy now or be priced out forever!!!
Oh and to SoftwareEngineer…..Whats all this have to do with immigration? And why is Immigration bad? Immigrants support our economy and help Real Estate prices go up.
PhinneyDawg » Jul 15, 2009 at 3:13 pm
Its interesting that Seattle always seems slow to come out of national recessions. In ‘91 and ‘01 our unemployment rate kept climbing for years before finally falling.
Looking at ‘09….our state could see climbing unemployment numbers into 2011 or 2012 even if the recession ends in 2010. Not a pretty picture.
Also interesting, the current recession is already twice as long as either the ‘91 or ‘01 recession. This is definitely uncharted territory.
David McManus » Jul 15, 2009 at 3:29 pm
I can’t tell if #18 is being sarcastic or not. If he/she isn’t, guess they didn’t get the memo!
The Tim » Jul 15, 2009 at 3:30 pm
RE: David McManus @ 20 – http://www.google.com/search?q=site:seattlebubble.com+EastsideRealEstateAgent
Softwarengineer » Jul 15, 2009 at 6:23 pm
RE: truthtold @ 14 –
PRODUCTIVITY GAINS
Don’t underestimate the underground illegal employment, its undocumented, so it makes documented American worker productivity look like its going way up I hear…..LOL
Softwarengineer » Jul 15, 2009 at 6:28 pm
RE: EastsideRealEstateAgent @ 18 –
ITS LOWER WAGES DUDE
With more overpopulation and uncontrolled growth; expect RE price and wage deterioration, today’s actuals speak for themselves. You got a better thesis or environmental plan?
Yes, computers will sell. The laptops have keyboards that fall apart in like a few months with LCD screens with no brightness controls….try using your battery power only in the sun…LOL
The computer junk from China using Intel and M/S Windows is good for about three years tops before it hits the landfills. I’m glad you feel planned obsolence is good.
Sniggy » Jul 15, 2009 at 7:10 pm
What computers don’t come from china?
My mom has had the same cheap laptop for 5 years now, and uses it every day. She had to replace a battery a year ago.
David Losh » Jul 15, 2009 at 8:04 pm
RE: Magnolia44 @ 1 –
I agree that this site has lost the edge since this spring selling season proved stronger than I think a lot of people expected. The economy seems to have stabilized. There are those that complain because the government seems to be working for the greater good, but they pail in comparison to a guy screaming 80% price reductions.
Yes, life goes on.
sid » Jul 15, 2009 at 8:15 pm
By The Tim @ 2:
Hi Tim,
Do you have monthly data about visits since 2005. Would be interesting to look at. Thanks.
The Tim » Jul 15, 2009 at 9:18 pm
RE: sid @ 26 – Monthly traffic from the beginning of the site in August 2005:
Not surprisingly, traffic to Seattle Bubble follows somewhat of a seasonal pattern, much like the real estate market.
Mikal » Jul 15, 2009 at 10:04 pm
RE: Softwarengineer @ 23 – So with greater population we will see lower real estate prices. That is the perfect supply and demand scenario. Please pass the bong.
shawn » Jul 15, 2009 at 10:28 pm
RE: Softwarengineer @ 23 – be glad for me too, I firmly believe that planned obsolescence is good. It is the unplanned that is B-A-D bad. So, what is the take away today? Plan, plan, plan your obsolescence!
Sniggy » Jul 15, 2009 at 10:29 pm
By Mikal @ 28:
I can’t believe I missed that. Greater population doesn’t completely mean a lower wages because It also means increased demands. The more limited the resources, the more they are going to cost right?????
Personally, I believe that Softy is really underpaid and hopes that everyone’s wages get to his level, that way he doesn’t feel so bad about going to work everyday.
cheapseats » Jul 15, 2009 at 11:35 pm
RE: Magnolia44 @ 1 –
Yeah M44, got it last time you said it too!
http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2009/06/21/poll-now-is-a-better-time-to-buy-than/
“Is it just me or is this place slowly dying? There have been some weak topics, what else is their to discuss really. Everything is in shambles, we know we get it. Good while it lasted hey tim, at least you got a few atta boy’s out of the whole blogging deal and website building experience.”
what goes up must come down » Jul 16, 2009 at 1:18 am
I think Mag44 has officially become a troll.
David Losh » Jul 16, 2009 at 6:17 am
RE: what goes up must come down @ 32 –
The construction job post combined with the supply of housing units to households and personal households are good topics. They should and probably would be great topics if we all hadn’t hashed them over time and time again.
When new people come to this site to offer an even slightly different opinion or have a conflicting perception they are shouted down. On the Rain City Guide Ardell does the shouting.
When commenters have no argument or rebuttal then there is the name calling which seems to be OK.
In my opinion the open forum has been good for this site. Other Real Estate sites over moderate discussion. I’m interested to see how this progresses from here.
biliruben » Jul 16, 2009 at 6:46 am
I don’t appreciate Mag’s comments, but I like WGUMCDs less.
When all you got is “If you don’t like it, leave”, you got nothing.
Diversity of opinion is the lifeblood of a site like this.
shawn » Jul 16, 2009 at 8:40 am
RE: biliruben @ 34 – diversity is great. But if you are just coming here to say “this place is bogus”, then you should expect a negative reaction.
This is place is still one of the only honest views of current events that are related to housing and the housing bubble with respect to Seattle, compared to the mainstream media.
Free speech does not mean that your speech will not be criticized nor does it mean you will be asked to take your speech to someone who wants to listen. No one is saying, hey you can’t say that, they are just saying, they don’t care to listen to mag44.
shawn » Jul 16, 2009 at 8:48 am
RE: biliruben @ 34 – let me say it another way: Kary is an opposing view, but he is respectful. If a person wants to come off mean or belittling, then that person should expect that others will not care for that person’s statements. What mag44 did was attack the site, not its content or the views, Kary argues the content, the views. Big difference.
biliruben » Jul 16, 2009 at 9:26 am
Agreed, Shawn. Mag’s just being antagonistic. The right solution is just to ignore trolls like that.
Worse, however, is trying to actively drive people away who might not subscribe to the dominant view of that site. I find that much more distasteful and harmful to the site than simply being a twit with nothing useful to say.
mike » Nov 8, 2009 at 4:55 am
RE: Softwarengineer @ 9 – RE: Softwarengineer @ 9 – hey I hope you dont think all construction workers are like this, I am a union plumber and I work my a## off everyday. I have seen the guys that you are referring too, but don’t think all construction workers conform to that way of life.