Poll: Will Boeing (mostly) leave the Puget Sound region by 2030?

Please vote in this poll using the sidebar.

Will Boeing (mostly) leave the Puget Sound region by 2030?

  • Definitely not. (3%, 4 Votes)
  • Probably not. (24%, 37 Votes)
  • Maybe? (14%, 22 Votes)
  • Probably. (40%, 61 Votes)
  • Definitely. (19%, 30 Votes)

Total Voters: 154


This poll will be active and displayed on the sidebar through 07.18.2009.

0.00 avg. rating (0% score) - 0 votes

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

20 comments:

  1. 1
    Kary L. Krismer says:

    If they aren’t here it will probably be because half of the areas/countries they outsourced the work to could never get the job done, leading to permanently dissatisfied customers, and the other half figured out how to build the rest of the plane and are at that point market leaders in the production of commercial aircraft.

  2. 2
    Kary L. Krismer says:

    BTW, the Times has what I’d call a commentary piece on this topic today:

    http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/jontalton/2009456699_biztaltoncol12.html

  3. 3
    Softwarengineer says:

    COMMERCIAL USED TO 80% OF BOEING’S EMPLOYEES IN THE SEATTLE AREA

    Now its 50/50 Military/Commericial. I expect commercial to mostly leave the Seattle area by 2030; but assuming there’s still a federal government, military will make up most of the Seattle Boeing jobs by then.

  4. 4
    Kary L. Krismer says:

    How could over 25% of the people responding to this poll be so certain of the future 21 years from now that they’d answer either Definitely or Definitely Not?

  5. 5
    WestSideBilly says:

    I think Softwareengineer has it pretty much right. Boeing (as we know it) could very well be out of business by 2030, or have completely moved to low-cost job centers. Of course, 20 years is a very long time, and Seattle could end up a low cost job center by then.

  6. 6
    Racket says:

    Not completely. Military stuff is hard to outsource, also since they purchased MD they inherited a ton of military patents, and contracts.

  7. 7
    David Losh says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 4

    You must be new to Seattle.

    We all know some one who works for Boeing, supplies Boeing, or gets a benefit from Boeing business. We keep track of that company like Flint Michigan keeps track of General Motors.

  8. 8
    Mikal says:

    RE: WestSideBilly @ 5 – Look at a history of his predictions. They aren’t even close. Suprisingly, they are off to the negative.

  9. 9
    Jonness says:

    Whatever the decision will be, it will be made with cost cutting in mind.

    Since 22 states don’t allow unions, I expect WA doesn’t have much of a future in manufacturing unless something drastically changes. It’s clear that the majority of union members could give a rat’s rear-end about the profitability of Boeing, so I expect Boeing to not care about the profitability of its employees.

    Do unto others…

  10. 10
    Cheap South says:

    If WA workers are willing to work for a hand full of rice a day, then there is a future.

    If the greedy bastards expect to support a family of four working 40 hours a week, forget it!! And that goes for all of the US. Even Southerners can not compete with Asia (especially since most planes will be used there).

  11. 11
    Kary L. Krismer says:

    By Jonness @ 9:

    Whatever the decision will be, it will be made with cost cutting in mind.

    Since 22 states don’t allow unions, I expect WA doesn’t have much of a future in manufacturing unless something drastically changes..

    I’d agree with the first point, but as to the second, RTW states don’t really leave Boeing with a lot of attractive options.

    http://www.nrtw.org/rtws.htm

    They’re already in AZ and KS, I believe. But most these RTW states have been that way for years, and have not been exactly magnets for business and economic growth.

  12. 12
    Kary L. Krismer says:

    RE: David Losh @ 7 – Born in Washington, but what does keeping track of a company have to do with being certain of the future?

  13. 13
    Sniggy says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 12:

    RE: David Losh @ 7 – Born in Washington, but what does keeping track of a company have to do with being certain of the future?

    Who knows we may be able to teleport in 20 years.

  14. 14
    ray pepper says:

    2030? Good Lord! I’ll be 63 and better be living in Scottsdale or San Diego by then. Boeing should be the least of my concerns. I’m more focused on 2015.

  15. 15
    Jonness says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 11:

    I’d agree with the first point, but as to the second, RTW states don’t really leave Boeing with a lot of attractive options. .

    My issue with Boeing staying in WA and continuing to build new airplane plants here is they have competition in the industry. In addition, Boeing’s unions are strike happy. The machinist union was offered the highest wages in the industry during the most severe downturn since the Great Depression and chose to strike anyways. Meanwhile, many other people were losing their jobs, their houses, and were experiencing the joys of the food stamp line. I think it would be limited to assume there is not a price to pay for this down the road. The strike cost the company many millions of dollars and contributed to poor relationships between Boeing and its customers (late airplanes).

    The union did it because they knew they could get away with it as opposed to doing it because it was in the best interest of the health of the company they work for. But as union members recently learned in Detroit, the health and well-being of the company equals the health and well-being of its workers. When you bite the hand that feeds you, in reality, your biting your own hand. Thus, IMO, strikes without great cause are self-defeating.

    I believe unions are a good idea, and they helped bring America out of the sweat shops. I’d hate to see a U.S. without labor unions. However, I’ve been in several unions, and notice many of employees develop a sense of entitlement. They stand around doing nothing and talk about how they’re being taken advantage of and how unfair that is. But these same people have never owned or ran a business and don’t have a clue about what that involves. I have, and IMO, It’s not as easy as it sounds.

    It appears we are moving toward a future where U.S. wages will come down as India and China come up. I don’t expect U.S. manufacturing wages to meet China wages any time soon, but I do expect them to continually adjust toward each other as time goes on. I believe this is extremely important because I don’t feel the U.S. can continue to reign supreme without a healthy on-shore manufacturing sector and balanced trade. We can’t borrow money from manufacturing nations to buy their cheap goods forever, because this economic model is unsustainable over the long run.

    This downturn is much scarier to me than the media is making it out to be because we have massive fundamental inadequacies in our economic model that are not being addressed. The best we can hope for is to build another bubble. But if we do that, we will further weaken our long-term economic security.

    We are a nation hooked on borrowing. As the money runs out and we can no longer afford to pay off our loans, we labor to come up with new ingenious ways to borrow the money it takes to ignore the problem for a few more years. Eventually, we will have to default on our debt or inflate our way out of this mess. Either way spells future chaos. it would be much better IMO to live within our means. But we are greedy and want to have our cake and eat it too. Thus, we develop plans to borrow against our children’s future so that we can continue to unnecessarily live in luxurious denial. But how much of this plastic chemically-laden junk do we really need cluttering up our lives and houses?

    I don’t believe the root of the U.S.’ problems is economically related. I believe the root is psychologically related. The only way to fix our current economic mess is to fix the minds of the masses by combating the massive brainwashing campaign directed at getting them to buy junk that distracts them from what’s truly important in living. But now I’m starting to sound like a Marxist, which is not my intention.

  16. 16
    Kary L. Krismer says:

    RE: Jonness @ 15 – Connected to your spending/borrowing issues, my issue for years has been how little people are preparing for retirement. I think social security has caused people to do less than they would otherwise, as if it were intended to be a retirement program in itself. It’s not.

  17. 17
    Jonness says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 16:

    RE: Jonness @ 15 – Connected to your spending/borrowing issues, my issue for years has been how little people are preparing for retirement. I think social security has caused people to do less than they would otherwise, as if it were intended to be a retirement program in itself. It’s not.

    I work with a fair number of people within 10 years of retiring. They often tell me I’ll never get social security or the money from my retirement plan because the money will run out before I retire. It’s difficult for me to foresee that happening. Then again, my uncle was a captain for United Airlines and took a pretty good shaft on his retirement. It can and does happen.

    I think one of the best tools out there right now is the Roth IRA. But I have to admit, I haven’t put a lot of research into the subject. To be perfectly honest, I don’t have a clue what a reasonable amount of money to retire on is. Do people typically try to set aside a paid off house and $250K, or what is a reasonable amount the average person should shoot for in today’s dollars?

  18. 18
    Kary L. Krismer says:

    RE: Jonness @ 17 – I think the answer to that would depend heavily on what your other income is, but 250k seems to me to be rather inadequate. But I guess it would also depend on what that paid off house is worth! ;-)

  19. 19
    Jonness says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 18 It’s looking more and more like I’m going to wind up as a 75-year-old Walmart greeter. :)

  20. 20
    WestSideBilly says:

    By Mikal @ 8:

    RE: WestSideBilly @ 5 – Look at a history of his predictions. They aren’t even close. Suprisingly, they are off to the negative.

    Most of his predictions are off, sure. But by 2030, BCA will almost certainly face stiff competition for their volume market (737) not just from Airbus, but from Embraer, Bombardier, ACAC (China), and possibly a Russian venture. Can Boeing compete staying in the Puget Sound region? Hard to say. But the new management structure has no loyalty to Seattle, Washington, or even the US.

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