October Seasonally-Adjusted Active Supply by Neighborhood

Let’s check in on our October monthly neighborhood update to Seasonally-Adjusted Active Supply (SAAS). For an explanation of what seasonally-adjusted active supply is, please refer to this post. Also, you may view a map of the areas discussed in this post.

As usual, the sweet interactive data visualizations (new and improved!) in today’s post come to you courtesy Tableau Software.

In the charts below I have taken the calculated value for SAAS and subtracted 2, in order to better visualize the difference between a buyer’s market and a seller’s market. Using this method, negative SAAS values indicate a seller’s market, while positive values indicate a buyer’s market.

Summary

King County’s overall SAAS continued to drop below the “balanced” level, coming in at 1.59 for October (September was 1.80). 18 of 30 areas came in below 1.75 as seller’s markets (over half for the first time in recent years), Only 1 of 30 came in above 2.25 as a buyer’s market, and the remaining 11 were more or less balanced between 1.75 and 2.25.

Hit the jump for the rest of this month’s interactive charts and commentary.

Here’s a year-over-year comparison for each NWMLS neighborhood.

Year-Over-Year Comparison


120 (Des Moines) is the only region that came in as a convincing buyer’s market, with an SAAS of 2.9.

Regional History

Not surprisingly, the recent decline in SAAS has been felt pretty much all across King County.

The three toughest markets for sellers were Des Moines / Redondo (120) at 2.9, Kirkland / Bridle Trails (560) at 2.1, and Black Diamond / Maple Valley (320) at 2.1.

The three best markets for sellers as of last month were Juanita / Woodinville (600) at 1.2, Jovita / West Hill Auburn (100) at 1.3, and Redmond / Carnation (550) at 1.3.


About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

15 comments:

  1. 1

    Looks Like Demand is Way Down from The SAAS Regression Analyses Trending

    I’ve lived in the Seattle area all my life, and one good way to measure buyer demand in Seattle during economic messes is sellers pulling listings off because no one will pay their prices. Looks like its been going on for years too, as the Jan 2009 spike anomaly was likely caused during the stock market’s initial crash earlier this year; as this may likely have caused units to head for listings quick sale before the probable looking depression….LOL

    BTW, what the Hades is the difference between a severe chronic recession with like 20% historically measured unemployment and a real historical depression with a dust bowl? A hair’s difference, huh….LOL

    Well, Americans going hungry is 1 in 7 today [50,000,000]; it was more like 1 in 4 during the great depression with a food production destroying dust bowl. When you go to bed tonight pray we never get a dust bowl like that again….LOL

    The Great Depression era had a lot going for it, that we don’t have today though….hope for a manufacturing resurgence, as well as, one Hades of lot more trees, fish and domestic oil with no overpopulation problems.

  2. 2
    QueenAnneRunner says:

    Interesting, and confirms my subjective observation in Queen Anne. There seems to be a mini surge in pendings on Upper Queen Anne. The number of Pendings / Under contract is around 35 on Redfin. A significant proportion of these are in the $900k+ range which has been “stuck” for the past year.

    I am interested to see if this is an aberation or if the price / supply / demand trend continues in spring 2010.

  3. 3
    Kevin says:

    Is it me or the market is recovering, at least for the past few months?

  4. 4
    HappyRenter says:

    By Kevin @ 3:

    Is it me or the market is recovering, at least for the past few months?

    I’m not sure that SAAS is currently a good indicator for market recovery. A lot of potential sellers are holding their homes off the market waiting for a better market. This causes listings to be down.

  5. 5
    AMS says:

    RE: Kevin @ 3 – Why do you think the market is recovering, and much more importantly, what do you think will happen over the next two to five years?

  6. 6

    RE: QueenAnneRunner @ 2

    I’ve noticed that too, the number of pendings increasing on Queen Anne, but I’m not sure it’s an indication of an improving market as much as sellers lowering their prices to the point where they sell. Queen Anne is a very desirable place to live, and there are still some homes sitting on the market for a long time, unsold. But some sellers are wising up and becoming more realistic in order to sell their homes.

  7. 7
    waitingforseattletocool says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1

    I really don’t understand why you would be laughing out loud to something like this:

    “Well, Americans going hungry is 1 in 7 today [50,000,000]; it was more like 1 in 4 during the great depression with a food production destroying dust bowl. When you go to bed tonight pray we never get a dust bowl like that again”

    Interesting sense of humor

  8. 8
    Courtney says:

    So it’s a “seller’s market” for real estate and a “buyer’s market” for renters. I don’t get that, it seems like the two markets would generally trend in the same direction?

  9. 9
    Scotsman says:

    Some of the $300K and under stuff around me is moving along with a few of the $1.0M forclosures now selling @ 35-40% off, but that’s it.

    My take is that there is a slow but steady demand in the stronger areas and inventory comes to market at a self regulating pace that just maintains the pricing status quo. If prices appear to be headed up more shadow inventory comes on the market until prices start to soften, then the inventory is pulled back. My guess is that there are a lot more people who want to sell than there are folks who need to buy so the flow of shadow inventory into and out off the market is the true variable. I’d further suggest that as the full extent of the national economic malaise is understood fewer and fewer buyers will be available leading to continued drops in volume and price. I certainly wouldn’t depend on more traditional or historic indications of market health right now- there are too many quirks and distortions in force.

  10. 10

    RE: Courtney @ 8
    Sometimes they trend together, sometimes they don’t. One phenomena over the last year or so is “reapartmenting”, where condos that couldn’t sell have been converted into apartment buildings, lowering the supply of units for sale and increasing the rental supply.

  11. 11
    AMS says:

    RE: Courtney @ 8 – The customer bases and supply are different. There are many people who cannot buy, for one reason or another. There are others who seek to buy.

    Then there are all the “accidental landlords.”

  12. 12
    fabuladocet says:

    By QueenAnneRunner @ 2:

    Interesting, and confirms my subjective observation in Queen Anne. There seems to be a mini surge in pendings on Upper Queen Anne. The number of Pendings / Under contract is around 35 on Redfin. A significant proportion of these are in the $900k+ range which has been “stuck” for the past year.

    By Ira Sacharoff @ 6:

    RE: QueenAnneRunner @ 2

    I’ve noticed that too, the number of pendings increasing on Queen Anne, but I’m not sure it’s an indication of an improving market as much as sellers lowering their prices to the point where they sell. Queen Anne is a very desirable place to live, and there are still some homes sitting on the market for a long time, unsold. But some sellers are wising up and becoming more realistic in order to sell their homes.

    Interesting to hear these points of view, as Upper Queen Anne is very much the focus of my house hunt. I noticed that of the five or six $900k+ homes that went pending there in the last week or so, most had ultimately shed some $250k+ and languished for 6+ months before finding acceptable offers. I find the suddenness of this interesting, because it has has effectively wiped out everything on “the hill” between $900k and $1,350k.

    From this prospective buyer’s perspective, there seems to have been a virtual stampede of buyers right into my corral.

  13. 13
    Ray Pepper says:

    Meredith Whitney is never wrong………We are all doomed for the big DOUBLE DIP and I’m not talking potato chips either.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=1332936523&play=1

    Ohhh Noooo!

    Time to load up on SRS!!!!!!

  14. 14
    Kevin says:

    By AMS @ 5:

    RE: Kevin @ 3 – Why do you think the market is recovering, and much more importantly, what do you think will happen over the next two to five years?

    As from our discussions last time, I personally have no idea nor interest in discussing the direction this country is going. =) I think all of us, whether you have cash, bond, stocks or house, will be screwed if economical catastrophe happens (which I also personally doubt it will).

    So for now I am watching the market with extreme interest. Same as the “subjective observations” above, a lot of well-priced listings on my watch list (Belltown, Queen Anne, Capitol Hill, Bellevue) have suddenly gone into pending in September and October, while no one dared to touch them for the past 5 or 6 months. So I am a little miffed as fabuladocet above.

    I hope supply will also pick up instead of everyone hounding for a higher price. If the numbers in Tim’s chart keeps going down, as a potential buyer I will be very pissed.

  15. 15
    Cheap South says:

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 6

    Queen Anne is like Nordstrom; even at discount it’s a ripoff.

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