Posted by: Timothy Ellis (The Tim)

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

14 responses to “Friday Flashback: Olive 8: “We’re going to wait this out.””

  1. softwarengineer

    Cash Reserves

    Once the owner of this sorry investment runs out of cash to stall and wait for a ghost rebound in real estate prices, they’ll wish they would have sold now for 30-40% off….IMO, it will likely be 40-50% off next year for Condos.

    The persistent/brainless hope still exists for real estate price increases in Seattle, using/propping up things with Fannie/Freddie lax lending standards with little down payments preventing a deluge of foreclosures, but alas, government debt limits and a shot chronic job market make this brainless/hopeless plan to prevent foreclosure deluges a pipedream.

    It’s time to just bite the bullet.

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  2. Condoseeker

    Is there any way to get a full inventory of all the condo’s in downtown? The inventory is staggering, but I never know if any of it is being absorbed. I looked at Enso 5 months ago and they were “70% sold” and ready to turn over the HOA to the owners so I better purchase quick. Last weekend I was told the exact same thing.

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  3. Marc

    “I wonder how many of the units going up for auction had pre-sale buyers who walked away?”

    I would guess a pretty fair number although I haven’t and won’t be checking. I forgot that my partner Craig was quoted in that Seattle Times article about Olive 8. Back then we represented 5 pre-sale buyers. That number grew considerably.

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  4. bob

    re: inventory. There seems to be a ton of 1br condos still available in the new construction and resale markets. Oh well – these never made personal sense to me

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  5. NotMe

    Seems like a great way to get information on what they COULD be sold for….assuming that the minimum is not met.

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  6. CCG

    By the time anybody wants to actually sell anything at a price where actual demand exists, no one will believe them because the lies have gone on for so long.

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  7. CCG

    By softwarengineer @ 1:

    Cash Reserves

    Once the owner of this sorry investment runs out of cash to stall and wait for a ghost rebound in real estate prices, they’ll wish they would have sold now for 30-40% off….IMO, it will likely be 40-50% off next year for Condos.

    The persistent/brainless hope still exists for real estate price increases in Seattle, using/propping up things with Fannie/Freddie lax lending standards with little down payments preventing a deluge of foreclosures, but alas, government debt limits and a shot chronic job market make this brainless/hopeless plan to prevent foreclosure deluges a pipedream.

    It’s time to just bite the bullet.

    As with a hopeless alcoholic, when reality finally arrives it will be imposed externally (i.e. an intervention, the cops, etc.) It will never be recognized voluntarily.

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  8. Aaron

    I’d definitely pay $160K for one of their units. Depending on when the auction is, I may attend just to see what they’re like. I’ll even bid $160K… maybe $161K.

    I dislike the idea of a fake minimum condo price. Everyone knows they’re not going to walk away with a unit at $160K, but if the sellers really expect $350K, why even waste the time of the optimist with a $250K budget?

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  9. Cheap South

    By Aaron @ 8:

    I’d definitely pay $160K for one of their units. Depending on when the auction is, I may attend just to see what they’re like. I’ll even bid $160K… maybe $161K.

    I dislike the idea of a fake minimum condo price. Everyone knows they’re not going to walk away with a unit at $160K, but if the sellers really expect $350K, why even waste the time of the optimist with a $250K budget?

    Also, look out for those HOA monthly fees in “Luxury Condos” like these. They seem to run between $400-$600. After 5 years you’ve paid about $30K in fees, and you might not think the pool (?) and gym were worth the money.

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  10. Ross

    By Aaron @ 8:

    [...] Everyone knows they’re not going to walk away with a unit at $160K, but if the sellers really expect $350K, why even waste the time of the optimist with a $250K budget?

    Because “auction psychology” can take hold of certain people once they are at the event, and they will blow their budgets to “win” the auction. They are anyways bidding their lender’s money – so what do they care.

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  11. ivan

    The Olive 8 advertising photo in the New Homes Saturday section of the paper today seems to have been doctored to remove that awful phone company building that is the view from the southwest facing units in this building.

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  12. ivan

    RE: The Tim @ 12

    I have to retract my assertion. Looking at google street view, there is a corner you can strategically stand at and not see the phone company building.

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  13. Enso owner

    RE: Condoseeker @ 2

    (full disclosure – I’m an Enso owner)

    Enso is actually in a relatively good position. They have over $45 million in closed sales. They can afford to sit on the remaining 30% for a while.

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