Posted by: Timothy Ellis (The Tim)

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

22 responses to “Friday Flashback: “Four offers instead of six””

  1. Kary L. Krismer

    I don’t understand your comments on the “too late” in 2005 regarding risky mortgages. Avoiding an 80/20 or ARM made just as much sense in 2005 as it does today. And getting a loan you can afford long term has always made sense. That’s part of what made the option ARMs foolish for most people.

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  2. LA Relo

    I’d like to think I’m fairly proficient in the English language, but I have no clue what this guy is saying:

    Eckhart: “What you want, is you want to get as many offers as possible. If you have four people come through, who will write an offer on your property regardless of what the house looks like, well then you have two more who would not have written an offer. If the house wasn’t in as clean a shape as it is right now, you wouldn’t have had-you would have had four offers instead of six. So the value of the house clearly goes up.”

    This is why I will never trust “but my agent said so.” I know there are good ones out there, but quotes like this only hurt them.

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  3. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: The Tim @ 3 – Okay, nationally rather than from the individual’s point of view.

    2005 might have been just past a tipping point from the national point of view, but that would largely be because of high population areas like LA that were rising fast at the time, and comprise a large percentage of the nation’s houses and mortgages. Locally it probably would have helped a great deal.

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  4. joe dirt

    This topic illustrates one of real beauties of the internet. Tim will be able to go back and comb through old news on the web and forevermore rub the bubble heads nose in it.

    Contrast this with Winston Smith’s job in 1984.

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  5. corncob

    This site is becoming bubble nostalgia lately. Is it because nothing is happening still? Pretty boring out there for a while…

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  6. EconE

    Memories.

    “Misty water colored memmmmories.”

    Anybody remember this thread?

    http://raincityguide.com/2007/02/16/housing-sales-fall-in-40-states-but-not-in-northwest/

    That dang Tim! Practicing Real Estate without a liscence!

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  7. ChrisM
  8. Scotsman

    RE: EconE @ 7

    Wow. How things have changed.

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  9. EconE

    Since we’re on the topic of mortgages…

    http://raincityguide.com/2007/02/19/15-year-mortgage-too-pricey-for-normal-people/

    With some precious quotes from Rhonda Porter…

    “Seattle is not too pricey for normal people…your 15 year fixed mortgage is”

    “Anonymous, can you explain why you don’t think a 40 year is good advice instead of simply leaving a comment so…well…anonymous?”

    “Biliruben is going to love this…why do they have to pay off their mortgage?”

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  10. Richard Thompson (Snarky)

    Wait, what I am wondering is if the Pikachu card still goes for $400?… Housing was Pokemon for adults.

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  11. Hugh Dominic

    RE: EconE @ 7 – wow! That thread should be in a frame in a museum somewhere. Very much enjoyed.

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  12. Lake Hills Renter

    Wow, I forgot about that thread. That industry arrogance still raises my hackles. Strange to see Jillayne towing the party line too.

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  13. Pssing Match

    I think at issue here is that the general population no longer understands how to objectively analyze information. They are too caught up in what other people think, instead of just looking at what is in front of them and understanding the face value. They look to others to determine what the value is. This is the definition of a nation of followers, of “sheep.”

    This is what happens when people become domesticated, confident, and complacent. They no longer have to scrounge for their daily peanut. They become street stupid, instead of street smart.

    The circling vultures, the central bankers, know all of this, as they have sociologists, psychologists and psy-op specialists on their payroll.

    What happened is that the central bankers created an agenda on their own behalf, and they used this knowledge to achieve their goals. They stabbed the complacent sheep in the back when they were busy buying their 42-inch LCD TV at Costco, the same TV that tells them what to think.

    That’s the real issue at stake. You can create 100 blogs that take aim at the sales folks (RE agents and brokers) who are the small guy in this chain of events. That will not achieve much other than to distract the sheep and make them more uninformed about the vultures. So then I begin wondering, who works for who?

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  14. Pssing Match

    RE: Pssing Match @ 14

    Ths rest of the story is:

    Choosing quantity over quality leads to human suffering. Western civilization is based on quantity. Our suffering is just around the corner, waiting for us, since our quantity will soon be taken from us. We are in panic mode as a civilization because we sense that this suffering is coming. We are now looking for a hero to save the day.

    The vultures already have prefabricated heros lined up for us, to parade on TV for our approval. They are there to serve as pacifiers to help transition the public from quantity, toward quality (as defined by the central bankers). Otherwise the mass monkey mind would run wild and take out its anger on the central banker-owned infrastructure. The monkey mind must be soothed and then transitioned to prevent chaos. Complete control over the mainstream media beforehand was therefore necessary to accomplish this.

    What we’ll end up with is a quality-over-quantity lifestyle and it will take decades for this to occur. The definition of “quality” will be determined by the central bankers who own the mainstream media. The sheep will be given the illusion and will believe they have some say in this definition, but in reality they will have very little impact on what this definition means.

    This is what the focus needs to be on at this point in history… making the sheep aware that a handful of central bankers have determined what the future will look like. Somehow, this future will automatically have these same central bankers in complete control, with more power than they have now. Imagine that! How surprising, right?

    The more I rub elbows with the sheep, the more I see the intelligence of these central bankers. Most people can’t tell their ass from their elbow anymore. They’ve really overplayed the sheep part a bit too much, IMO.

    So now I am wondering, since it’s taken me 20+ years to be able to tell the forest from the trees… who should I support? The sheep, or the central bankers? The sheep merely want to attack anything that violates the existing paradigm that they’ve fully bought into, almost like its a religion. The central bankers want to make sure they maintain dominance and are doing their best to transition the stupid sheep to a different world order.

    If the sheep wake up to the vultures, then they are no longer sheep. They then have the ability to make their own future, with their own vision. This is what Ron Paul and others like him are doing. This is why the sheep are told over and over by the central banker-owned media that Libertarianism is so so very bad! Imagine that! That’s like busting out the cheerleaders anytime the opposition scores a point.

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  15. David S

    Seems like there are no market problems anymore. They’re over there on Redfin Seattle forum blogging about their multiple offers, escalation clauses and dream homes in late 2010. What ‘choice’ neighborhoods is this going on in I’d like to know. Just a symptom of all the pent up demand?

    http://forums.redfin.com/t5/Seattle/lots-of-multiple-offers-happening-right-now/td-p/148557

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  16. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: David S @ 16 – There are areas/house types that are very popular and can generate multiple offers if marketed properly. The reason for that, as an example, is they’re not building any more houses in Seattle proper that were built in the 1920s. The supply is capped.

    Also, I work in a lot of different areas, and have noticed a lot of different interest in open houses in different areas. There are some areas where you can hold 4 open houses and be luck to get 4 groups in total. There are other areas where you might get 20 in a single open house. Same methods of advertising the open house.

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  17. Jonness

    By EconE @ 7:

    Anybody remember this thread?

    http://raincityguide.com/2007/02/16/housing-sales-fall-in-40-states-but-not-in-northwest/

    That’s about as good of an example as I’ve seen as to why you should always question authority.

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  18. ARDELL

    RE: Scotsman @ 9

    Eleua, whom I fondly refer to as “e”, did much to help me pull my brain out of a dark place filled with Kool-Aid. He talked TO me without sticking pins in me while doing so. I referred to him thereafter as “my center”. He took the time to engage in real conversation, not just throw a rotten egg and run away. [Thanks E!]

    As Scotsman said, a healthy debate that helps people test one another’s core beliefs is a powerful thing. Haters and Snarks don’t do as much for a conversation or to accomplish real change in a big way.

    I remember the day Jon wrote that post and then went of to Hawaii leaving us to “man” the comments. It was a tough day for us, as we had not written the post in the first place. That is why it is one of the few posts that “closed to comments” at some point. You don’t drop a bomb and leave your fellow writers to fend for themselves in a battle they didn’t start. Jon learned a lot that day about blogging.

    40 days and 40 nights from now I will have been blogging for 5 years, and I am proud of the journey. Yes, I change my mind from time to time. Yes, I said the landslide of slipping prices would end in early 2009, which it did. Yes, I now say we are on our way to a new and robust slide, as the Republicans will now begin to put the Country in lock down to gain the Presidency. I say this as a long standing Republican until the most recent past Presidential election.

    Life changes; sht happens, and discussions like the one we look back on today are awesomely wonderful. You can see the wheels turning and minds opening up, albeit while kicking and screaming all the way.

    To that end, I wish I could remember who said: “Ardell! What are you thinking?! Getting a 30 year mortgage? You are 55 years old!!!” :)

    In 1990 I took a pledge to “uphold the value of real estate” in these United States. I look back on the last 20 years and have few regrets. The least of my regrets is being bold enough to confront things head on. In the end we talk to ourselves, and we scream the loudest when our core beliefs are teetering on the edge of change.

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  19. Jonness

    By Pssing Match @ 15:

    Choosing quantity over quality leads to human suffering.

    This seems to suggest the necessity of forgoing the massively abundant easy food, and instead striving to eat the difficult to obtain food of enlightenment.

    So now I am wondering, since it’s taken me 20+ years to be able to tell the forest from the trees… who should I support? The sheep, or the central bankers? The sheep merely want to attack anything that violates the existing paradigm that they’ve fully bought into, almost like its a religion. The central bankers want to make sure they maintain dominance and are doing their best to transition the stupid sheep to a different world order.

    My choice is to support neither. Instead, I choose to use intelligence as protection from the ignorance of others while I blaze my own pathway toward enlightenment. I’ll follow no one other than myself, and I’ll rely upon my own judgment when making decisions along the way. If I screw up, then I’ll learn from my mistakes and live to fight another day as a more learned human being.

    In my my past, I learned, when one is breaking ground into the future, he faces massive resistance, ridicule, and lack of support from the masses. You will never be given credit for having gotten there first. Instead, once your original ideas become vogue, those who previously ridiculed you will grasp on to the ideas, claim ownership, and attempt to expertly guide you in how to better understand them.

    Thus, I choose to forget about fame and external validation. In order to acquire it, one generally has to sacrifice his principles, ideals, and the originality of his ideas. Instead, I’ll strive to increase my awareness of the world around me and use this knowledge to make increasingly better decisions.

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  20. Macro Investor

    RE: Pssing Match @ 14

    “I think at issue here is that the general population no longer understands how to objectively analyze information.”

    You said it all right there in the first sentence. The rest of what you wrote is either opinion or facts that need to be independently verified ;)

    Seriously, there is no need to overwhelm people with a million new ideas. Just teach them that most of what we “know” is actually a “belief”. Beliefs get passed around and around because we all assume SOMEONE ELSE did the due diligence. Ask them to try and fact check. Usually it can’t be done. Which makes it a rumor, not fact.

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  21. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: Macro Investor @ 21 – I think there’s a lot to be said about this analysis, and that of Pssing Match.

    Take the discussion I just had with David Losh. He’s been brainwashed by the D’s idea that taxes don’t hurt the economy, so he doesn’t understand the “logic” of how an investor is less likely to do something if their expected return is reduced by taxes. In contrast, there are some R’s who are convinced that further tax cuts going on forever will reduce the deficit. That’s what the Ds and Rs do to win over people–repeat simple claims over and over and over, which not enough people bother to think about further.

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