Posted by: Timothy Ellis (The Tim)

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

114 responses to “Friday Flashback: Seattle’s Housing Bubble All-Star Team”

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  1. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: doug @ 100 – The SS tax cut is kicking the can down the road in the extreme, but only if you incorrectly assume that the SS system is a retirement account.

    Stated differently, I think they’re thinking this is money they won’t have to repay for most people for a long time. That’s the wrong way of thinking about it.

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  2. Kary L. Krismer

    By doug @ 100:

    Will companies start hiring? I’m sure if they don’t, we’ll just be told by supply-siders that the rich just need even more tax cuts. Time to put up or shut up, corporate America.

    As I’ve said in the past, I think that will depend on President Obama toning down his anti-business rhetoric. I think he will now that the Ds got their butts kicked in the election, but what I don’t know is if business will believe him. I’d add that having the Rs control the House may give business a bit more courage, irregardless of what they think of President Obama.

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  3. doug

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 102

    Snow-shovelling money at companies doesn’t count as playing nice? Companies were so hurt and frightened by things said months ago, before the elections, that they’re just paralyzed?

    I agree on you with lots of things, Kary, but there’s absolutely NO evidence of that, in fact there’s evidence against it. You’ve focused on the Obama @ss-kicking comment before, and the DJIA rose 33 pts on that day, 11 the next. Wall St doesn’t care about rhetoric, and Wall St. certainly isn’t scared of Obama.

    Not to mention Obama has only talked tough about the banking industry and BP. The banking industry is doing quite well, all things considered. Banking is one of the only sectors that’s hiring now. Why are the other corporations, that sell products and services to the masses, not hiring? Could it be that there’s no DEMAND for goods and services amongst the masses? Occam’s razor for goodness’ sake.

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  4. WestSideBilly

    Kary, I’ve asked other people, and other than some mumbling about the health care law, what exactly has Obama said or done that is anti business? ARRA had numerous breaks for businesses big and small, the domestic car industry was bailed out, health care / drug companies were given a big piece of pie with the health care law. Is it just that the previous 8 years were so blindly pro-business (W’s “do whatever you want, we don’t care”) that our concept of neutrality has been skewered?

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  5. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: doug @ 103 – Actually, GM was just saying this last week that it’s hard for them to hire due to government intervention. And the banks paid off their loans ASAP to get out from underneath it.

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  6. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: WestSideBilly @ 104 – I think his first thing was being critical of companies taking retreats in Las Vegas. That really helped their local economy! Then there were threats of extra taxes on bonuses and changes to government bailout programs after the loans were made. And he wasn’t exactly nice to the leaders of BP over the oil spill, even though there was little or no evidence in at the time and many entities possibly at fault (with the most recent reports being Haliburton might have been the most negligent actor).

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  7. doug

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 105

    That’s GM only, a company that had to be saved from bankrupcy, because of their own incompetence. Moreover, they were talking about hiring business executives, not middle-class workers. That doesn’t backup your argument AT ALL.

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  8. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: doug @ 107 – I know they were talking about hiring executives. I suspect the talent pool for assembly line workers is pretty vast.

    You describe their prior management as having been incompetent. How are they supposed to change that if they can’t attract talent? We own a lot of GM. It’s in our interest for them to have talent. President Obama doesn’t understand that it costs money to get people who can make money. Thus his attack on salaries, bonuses and other benefits.

    President Obama also made a lot of negative comments about AIG after the point we had taken them over and owned AIG. It’s incredible stupidity to try to drive talent away from companies you own by making working their so adverse that you lose people not as a result of your own choice, but a result of theirs. You tend to lose your best that way. He was pandering to the voters, but didn’t get any votes. Lose, lose.

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  9. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: doug @ 107 – BTW, what other administration in history has been critical of the Chamber of Congress? Interesting though that when they are they don’t name the entity.

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  10. David Losh

    RE: Agents Ranking Real Estate Agents @ 98

    Many people saw the bubble bursting, many agents who are now retired saw the end coming.

    The difference is how it happened. I thought, and believed we would have hyper inflation. I still think that if either Clinton or McCain were elected we would have had inflated out way out of this mess.

    Inflation is what many people were thinking, and talking about. Real Estate people talked about this being the 1980s, or similar to the Savings and Loan scandal, or us having a massive run up in oil prices.

    I don’t know any one other than here on this blog, or Calculated Risk that saw a deflationary spiral.

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  11. David Losh

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 102RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 101

    Well you did put a whole bunch of stuff out there. Obama has been extremely kind to business, and the Republicans. He needs to get tough, and get the country headed in the right direction.

    If your point is that we, the tax payers, should pay the executives who crashed our economy, while taking junkets to Las Vegas, more to attract more of the same kind of talent, then yes we have a lot to discuss in the Global Economic Thread.

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  12. x


    Ardell’s comments from John Ribary’s blog –

    1. Tim, Some day we’ll have to meet for coffee, so I can teach you how to read the stats.
    2. You really should take the time to understand the stats better. You have a lot of readers.
    3. I just saw someone asking your real, real estate questions on your blog Tim. You really should have a huge disclaimer that you are not licensed to give such advices.
    4. I meet with professionals all of the time to put our heads together and review market trends. Since you are not in the industry, have never owned real estate as far as I know, and are giving real estate advices to a large number of consumers on a daily basis, I think it odd that you have no passion to expand your knowledge on the subject.
    5. Talking about stats is one thing. Giving real estate advice borders on practicing without a license.

    Disgustingly condescending, with an empty intimidation and insinuation about the legality of Tim’s blog. Apparently free speech is dead in this country if it discusses real estate.

    Jillayne also joins in the fun, real estate “experts” dishing out the “expert” advice.

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  13. Seattle Bubble • Friday Flashback: “Kendra Todd agrees with Lar”

    [...] will recall, Larry Cragun is a former Issaquah real estate agent who received a brief mention in a previous Friday Flashback for his characterization of bubble blogs as “the babbling and whining of children.” But [...]

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