Rather than focus on just one article for today’s Friday Flashback, I thought it would be fun to highlight a montage of brief quotes from a handful of local real estate professionals.
Marlow Harris on 360Digest, April 29, 2006: Housing Bubble Babble
Though I concede that we could be in for a market correction or a slowdown in housing sales and prices, I disagree that it will be of the mammoth proportions that many Bubble devotees believe it will be.
Everyone needs a home, and no matter what the value is, no one will lose money if they don’t sell it.
Here’s what Marlow had to say in the comments when I said that “I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 25% drop from today’s prices”:
Tim, you’re obviously frustrated and frightened by the current real estate situation and you’re getting sick of living in a garage.
Have faith in your talents to stay employed, bite the bullet, get a “0″-down 5-year ARM and get in the game.
You won’t regret it. It may cost you more in the long run to stay out.
Wow, I had completely forgotten that gem. When pressed, she also gave me her definition of the “mammoth” correction that we wouldn’t be seeing:
Ok, let me think. “Mammoth Proportions”? 10%? That would be a lot. I’d be bummed out if prices went down 10% or more…
Susan Ryan at Seattle Real Estate Professionals, October 2, 2006: Just Say No to Bubble Talk (original deleted, link goes to the HousingPanic post)
As I’ve said repeatedly, stock market terms do not apply to real estate. There is no real estate bubble and never will be. A decrease in acceleration is not an implosion (or even a pop).
Ardell DellaLoggia at ARDELL’s Seattle Area Real Estate Blog, November 25, 2006: Seattle Housing – Appreciation Graph
When I went to the underlying article What will your House Be Worth in 2016, I had to say to myself, why would we be second guessing Forbes and Moody’s? Surely they have the data to deliver the most reliable results.
…generally speaking…I like the fact that we do seem to be the ONLY City with these types of numbers.
If you’re curious, here’s my 2006 post on these charts: Economy.com: Seattle Definitely Special
Jon Ribary at Rain City Guide, February 16, 2007: Housing sales fall in 40 states; but not in Northwest
Do people behind the Rain City Curtin have their blinders on? Time will only tell, but if history is any guide (and I am NOT a historian) I would guess in time, with a smaller supply of products, demand will eventually grown (sic) so even though sales may be sluggish, over a 3 year window sales will continue to grow.
Larry Cragun at RealEstateUndressed, October 16, 2007: The Trouble With The Bubble Talk
Ok, I admit it, I went and read a bubble blog. … I fore-soothed I would see the babbling and whining of children. See the little boy pout. His name is Tim. He posts on the bubble blogs. … Sorry Timmy, sorry Robbie, watch out Alessey, people have to grow up someday.
Perhaps a better solution kids, is to just grow up and be good kids. Get some education. Learn some disclipine. Save some money. Be a hard worker. And stop whining and crying and pouting, especially on line.
Leanne Finlay at Seattle Real Estate Professionals, March 29, 2008: Smart or Stupid
There are people who are hell-bent on saying it’s stupid to buy now; their advice shouldn’t be taken as ‘advice’ but perhaps more as drama. It’s dramatic to suggest real estate prices will skyrocket down, but unless we see major unemployment, I don’t see that happening in our market. Buy smart, there are some very nice properties out there just waiting for you to come in the front door.
Mack McCoy at Seattle Real Estate Professionals, July 7, 2008: When Will The Seattle Housing Bubble Burst?
Certainly, Seattle has felt the effects of recent economic events. But it seems to me that the predicted “bubble popping” has yet to occur, and that perhaps predictions of doom were, gee, what’s the word I’m looking for . . . wrong?
Well, somebody was wrong, anyway.
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RE: doug @ 100 – The SS tax cut is kicking the can down the road in the extreme, but only if you incorrectly assume that the SS system is a retirement account.
Stated differently, I think they’re thinking this is money they won’t have to repay for most people for a long time. That’s the wrong way of thinking about it.
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By doug @ 100:
As I’ve said in the past, I think that will depend on President Obama toning down his anti-business rhetoric. I think he will now that the Ds got their butts kicked in the election, but what I don’t know is if business will believe him. I’d add that having the Rs control the House may give business a bit more courage, irregardless of what they think of President Obama.
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RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 102 –
Snow-shovelling money at companies doesn’t count as playing nice? Companies were so hurt and frightened by things said months ago, before the elections, that they’re just paralyzed?
I agree on you with lots of things, Kary, but there’s absolutely NO evidence of that, in fact there’s evidence against it. You’ve focused on the Obama @ss-kicking comment before, and the DJIA rose 33 pts on that day, 11 the next. Wall St doesn’t care about rhetoric, and Wall St. certainly isn’t scared of Obama.
Not to mention Obama has only talked tough about the banking industry and BP. The banking industry is doing quite well, all things considered. Banking is one of the only sectors that’s hiring now. Why are the other corporations, that sell products and services to the masses, not hiring? Could it be that there’s no DEMAND for goods and services amongst the masses? Occam’s razor for goodness’ sake.
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Kary, I’ve asked other people, and other than some mumbling about the health care law, what exactly has Obama said or done that is anti business? ARRA had numerous breaks for businesses big and small, the domestic car industry was bailed out, health care / drug companies were given a big piece of pie with the health care law. Is it just that the previous 8 years were so blindly pro-business (W’s “do whatever you want, we don’t care”) that our concept of neutrality has been skewered?
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RE: doug @ 103 – Actually, GM was just saying this last week that it’s hard for them to hire due to government intervention. And the banks paid off their loans ASAP to get out from underneath it.
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RE: WestSideBilly @ 104 – I think his first thing was being critical of companies taking retreats in Las Vegas. That really helped their local economy! Then there were threats of extra taxes on bonuses and changes to government bailout programs after the loans were made. And he wasn’t exactly nice to the leaders of BP over the oil spill, even though there was little or no evidence in at the time and many entities possibly at fault (with the most recent reports being Haliburton might have been the most negligent actor).
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RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 105 –
http://www.thenewstribune.com/2010/12/10/1459645/gm-was-humbled-by-near-death-experience.html
That’s GM only, a company that had to be saved from bankrupcy, because of their own incompetence. Moreover, they were talking about hiring business executives, not middle-class workers. That doesn’t backup your argument AT ALL.
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RE: doug @ 107 – I know they were talking about hiring executives. I suspect the talent pool for assembly line workers is pretty vast.
You describe their prior management as having been incompetent. How are they supposed to change that if they can’t attract talent? We own a lot of GM. It’s in our interest for them to have talent. President Obama doesn’t understand that it costs money to get people who can make money. Thus his attack on salaries, bonuses and other benefits.
President Obama also made a lot of negative comments about AIG after the point we had taken them over and owned AIG. It’s incredible stupidity to try to drive talent away from companies you own by making working their so adverse that you lose people not as a result of your own choice, but a result of theirs. You tend to lose your best that way. He was pandering to the voters, but didn’t get any votes. Lose, lose.
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RE: doug @ 107 – BTW, what other administration in history has been critical of the Chamber of Congress? Interesting though that when they are they don’t name the entity.
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Guys, this conversation is way off topic. Please move it to the Global Economic December Thread.
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RE: Agents Ranking Real Estate Agents @ 98 –
Many people saw the bubble bursting, many agents who are now retired saw the end coming.
The difference is how it happened. I thought, and believed we would have hyper inflation. I still think that if either Clinton or McCain were elected we would have had inflated out way out of this mess.
Inflation is what many people were thinking, and talking about. Real Estate people talked about this being the 1980s, or similar to the Savings and Loan scandal, or us having a massive run up in oil prices.
I don’t know any one other than here on this blog, or Calculated Risk that saw a deflationary spiral.
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RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 102 – RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 101 –
Well you did put a whole bunch of stuff out there. Obama has been extremely kind to business, and the Republicans. He needs to get tough, and get the country headed in the right direction.
If your point is that we, the tax payers, should pay the executives who crashed our economy, while taking junkets to Las Vegas, more to attract more of the same kind of talent, then yes we have a lot to discuss in the Global Economic Thread.
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@ardell
Ardell’s comments from John Ribary’s blog -
1. Tim, Some day we’ll have to meet for coffee, so I can teach you how to read the stats.
2. You really should take the time to understand the stats better. You have a lot of readers.
3. I just saw someone asking your real, real estate questions on your blog Tim. You really should have a huge disclaimer that you are not licensed to give such advices.
4. I meet with professionals all of the time to put our heads together and review market trends. Since you are not in the industry, have never owned real estate as far as I know, and are giving real estate advices to a large number of consumers on a daily basis, I think it odd that you have no passion to expand your knowledge on the subject.
5. Talking about stats is one thing. Giving real estate advice borders on practicing without a license.
Disgustingly condescending, with an empty intimidation and insinuation about the legality of Tim’s blog. Apparently free speech is dead in this country if it discusses real estate.
Jillayne also joins in the fun, real estate “experts” dishing out the “expert” advice.
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[...] will recall, Larry Cragun is a former Issaquah real estate agent who received a brief mention in a previous Friday Flashback for his characterization of bubble blogs as “the babbling and whining of children.” But [...]
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