Posted by: Timothy Ellis (The Tim)

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

70 responses to “CNN Money Still Throwing Around Random Predictions”

  1. Kary L. Krismer

    I don’t know if CNN Money is related to the old Money Magazine, but I always like to point out the latter called Seattle as a city likely to pop back in October, 2002. They only missed the top by almost 5 years and probably close to 100%.

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  2. Cheap South

    Amazing. Only last week Seattle was on the list of worst places to buy.

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  3. Ross

    By Cheap South @ 2:

    Amazing. Only last week Seattle was on the list of worst places to buy.

    Trusting the advice of these so called experts is worse than random.

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  4. Lurker

    RE: Cheap South @ 2

    Well, Moody’s still thinks PNW is overvalued. At least for today.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703313304576132291585938656.html?mod=igoogle_wsj_gadgv1&

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  5. Cheap South

    Wait. Am I reading the Tacoma slide correctly? Are they calling Seattle the state capital?

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  6. justin

    Anytime they use the guys from John L. Scott as an expert I instantly tune out and assume whatever they are talking about is the exact opposite. Ol’ Scott has been spouting the line about supply shortage since…birth?

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  7. ARDELL

    The beauty of where we are at this very moment is we can be way UP form Jan 2011 and way DOWN from June 2010 all at the same time! That should make everybody happy for awhile.

    By June we should be down 6% YOY and up 7% YTD. Won’t that be fun!

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  8. softwarengineer

    They’re Practically Giving Away Financial Magazines and Newspapers Now-a-days

    And have these editors and owners ever asked why? We the People are simply sick of the globalism uncontrolled growth slop and lies they feed us and we just won’t buy ‘em anymore.

    You know the paper/magazine is trash when Seattle Bubble Type Blogs are omitted from their Letters to the Editor or their blogshere [like AP or Reuters]. I will say that both the Seattle PI internet and the Seattle Times editorial sifting has improved lately, but IMO it’s too late; the PI went belly-up and the Times is barely surviving.

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  9. pfft

    most so-called experts are usually wrong.

    Gurus are Still Wrong After 80 Years
    http://blogs.forbes.com/rickferri/2011/02/08/gurus-are-still-wrong-after-80-years/

    look at the very recent past. the darlings have been wrong. roubini wrong about recovery. meredith whitney wrong about banking stocks after being right. taleb wrong about shorting treasuries.

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  10. pfft

    By softwarengineer @ 8:

    They’re Practically Giving Away Financial Magazines and Newspapers Now-a-days

    And have these editors and owners ever asked why? We the People are simply sick of the globalism uncontrolled growth slop and lies they feed us and we just won’t buy ‘em anymore.

    You know the paper/magazine is trash when Seattle Bubble Type Blogs are omitted from their Letters to the Editor or their blogshere [like AP or Reuters]. I will say that both the Seattle PI internet and the Seattle Times editorial sifting has improved lately, but IMO it’s too late; the PI went belly-up and the Times is barely surviving.

    how can you be from seattle and be against globalism?

    the US is the largest exporter in the world and you’re against globalism?

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  11. softwarengineer

    RE: pfft @ 10

    LOL Pfft

    I’ll switch the question, how can most anyone employed in America support globalism’s/corporists’ CLEAR goals: outsourcing and/or wage mitigation insourcing of most of our jobs?

    Almost all of us are not immune either, we’re on this globalist Titanic together, and let’s suppose I’m a corporist leader and I allege there’s a shortage of people in Pfft’s line of work [even if there's massive unemployment] so we brainlessly insource hoards of ‘em to drive Pfft’s wages down in error, but write in financial magazines how sweet it is for stock buyers anyway? LOL

    Hardly nobody wants to read that globalism trash in magazines anymore.

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  12. me

    Investment most likely to make you $1000000 in Seattle today: Lotto ticket.

    Seriously, Seattle was nicely stable, but that means its likelyhood of double-digit gains is nil. Plus, if what I hear from my friends in the business is right, we’re nowhere near increasing valuations.

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  13. Blake

    RE: pfft @ 10
    pft wrote: “how can you be from seattle and be against globalism?
    the US is the largest exporter in the world and you’re against globalism?”
    ahem…
    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/10/business/global/10export.html
    -snip- “Chinese exports amounted to $1.2 trillion in 2009, while German exports totaled $1.1 trillion, the German Federal Statistical Office said. Germany became the top world exporter in 2003, surpassing the United States. The value of goods exported from United States for the first 11 months of 2009 was $947.5 billion.”

    Hey pft… The US hasn’t lead the world in exports since 2003… how can you be from Seattle and be so stupid? It’s sooooo easy to check facts with the intertubes you know.

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  14. Ira Sacharoff

    By Cheap South @ 5:

    Wait. Am I reading the Tacoma slide correctly? Are they calling Seattle the state capital?

    No, It’s just bad editing. They’re not calling Seattle the state capitol, But they’re also leaving out the fact that Tacoma has just been named America’s most romantic city.
    http://officialblog.yelp.com/2011/02/the-most-romantic-city-on-yelp-is.html

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  15. pfft

    By softwarengineer @ 11:

    RE: pfft @ 10

    LOL Pfft

    I’ll switch the question, how can most anyone employed in America support globalism’s/corporists’ CLEAR goals: outsourcing and/or wage mitigation insourcing of most of our jobs?

    Almost all of us are not immune either, we’re on this globalist Titanic together, and let’s suppose I’m a corporist leader and I allege there’s a shortage of people in Pfft’s line of work [even if there’s massive unemployment] so we brainlessly insource hoards of ‘em to drive Pfft’s wages down in error, but write in financial magazines how sweet it is for stock buyers anyway? LOL

    Hardly nobody wants to read that globalism trash in magazines anymore.

    we buy their stuff and they buy our stuff. they can just as easily add jobs here as we can outsource there. that’s my stand on globalization. jobs are lost to computers and robots, are you against that?

    where does it stop though? are you against moving jobs from say the northwest to the south? from california to the northwest? from the east to the south? from washington to oregon?

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  16. pfft

    By Blake @ 13:

    RE: pfft @ 10
    Hey pft… The US hasn’t lead the world in exports since 2003… how can you be from Seattle and be so stupid? It’s sooooo easy to check facts with the intertubes you know.

    according to the article I posted a week or two ago the US is the world’s largest exporter in 2010.

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  17. Urban Artist

    Wow, romance has really taken a hit.

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  18. Ross

    By pfft @ 16:

    By Blake @ 13:
    RE: pfft @ 10
    Hey pft… The US hasn’t lead the world in exports since 2003… how can you be from Seattle and be so stupid? It’s sooooo easy to check facts with the intertubes you know.

    according to the article I posted a week or two ago the US is the world’s largest exporter in 2010.

    I believe it was that the US is (still) the world’s largest manufacturer – but not exporter. A lot of the manufacturing goes to domestic consumption. If we were the largest exporter, we probably wouldn’t have the trade deficit that we do.

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  19. EconE
  20. Scotsman

    Ya, sure, you betcha- the Chinese are hiring like crazy here, there’s an impending home shortage, and real estate always goes up! What amazes me is how it manages to do that while we’re hitting new lows in employment. Where will the money come from? Dream on:

    http://market-ticker.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?get_gallerynr=1098

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  21. Scotsman

    The average manufacturing job in the Seattle area pays about $75K in wages and benefits, about $20K more than average. The above predictions must be counting on more of these jobs, both here and around the rest of the country. But…:

    http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2009/0409/02regact-2.gif

    I guess the outsourcing trend hasn’t reversed yet, eh? But housing prices will increase?

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  22. pfft

    By Ross @ 18:

    By pfft @ 16:
    By Blake @ 13:
    RE: pfft @ 10
    Hey pft… The US hasn’t lead the world in exports since 2003… how can you be from Seattle and be so stupid? It’s sooooo easy to check facts with the intertubes you know.

    according to the article I posted a week or two ago the US is the world’s largest exporter in 2010.

    I believe it was that the US is (still) the world’s largest manufacturer – but not exporter.

    yes that is what I posted. my fault.

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  23. pfft

    By Scotsman @ 20:

    Where will the money come from? Dream on:

    http://market-ticker.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?get_gallerynr=1098

    where did in come from during the last bubble? wages were stagnant yet home prices soared.

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  24. Hugh Dominic

    RE: pfft @ 23 – Easy credit. You’re a fool for thinking that’s coming back.

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  25. pfft

    By Hugh Dominic @ 24:

    RE: pfft @ 23 – Easy credit. You’re a fool for thinking that’s coming back.

    the stock market came back. haven’t you guys learned that we never stop doing foolish things?

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  26. Scotsman

    If a guy was smart enough to read a chart he’d see that some of the money came from a run up (2003-8/2007) in the percentage of the population that was employed. Funny how that had a peak right at the collapse of the bubble. Yup, we had a nice little uptrend with seasonal peaks/valleys moving steadily upward until 8/2007. Anyone remember what happened in 8-2007?

    As a side note I just came in from the garage, listen ing to the radio, when what should I hear but an ad from a local mortgage company quoting one of the above articles about how Seattle was going to be one of the fastest recovering areas over the next ten years, and how. . . wait for it. . . yes, . . . IT WAS A GREAT TIME TO BUY

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  27. David Losh

    RE: pfft @ 10RE: pfft @ 15RE: pfft @ 16RE: pfft @ 22RE: pfft @ 23RE: pfft @ 25

    You have inadvertently outlined the means of a global economic collapse. You’re right we don’t need jobs. Jobs can move anywhere. Trading, and financial jobs can be done from anywhere. There are fewer jobs to do and way more than enough people to do them.

    So if we make it here, or they make it there makes no difference we are awash in product. The same as we over built housing we over built cars, truck, farm equipment, and factories. We have so much supply that we are constantly looking for consumers.

    The only thing that is keeping prices inflated is easy credit. The stock market no longer counts production, it counts earnings, most from easy credit financials.

    Easy credit home loans will be coming back, no interest until 2014 is on the way. Low interest credit cars are in the mail, I’m getting mine. In Peru they have it, it’s all over Europe, does any one know if they have easy credit in China? Of course they do.

    Like I said, good news is bad news for Real Estate. You would have to be brain dead to buy a property today. Real Property as an asset class is too much work to maintain. There’s more money in trading commodities that the entire world will buy with….Easy Credit.

    The mortgage, the paper note, can be traded a dozen times while the house just sits there waiting for a new roof.

    There are more than enough idiots to pay interest on a never diminishing principal balance. Why lend money on a thirty year mortgage, except for the interest income to double the purchase price?

    Wait, you can do that a million times over, at a higher rate of return, faster turn around, by financing Plasma TVs.

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  28. David Losh

    RE: Scotsman @ 21

    There will be a decrease in wages. There is no way we can sustain a $75K manufacturing job.

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  29. Cheap South

    Globalization – As far as I know, Boeing is the largest exporter in the country. Even though globalization has hurt many places in the country, Seattle has benefited tremendously; not only by being headquarters (or manufacturing site) for very large fish; but also by having foreign companies place local offices in the area (Nintendo, Mitsubishi Aviation, etc).

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  30. pdmseatac

    RE: David Losh @ 28 – The guys who keep the robots, PLCs, automated tooling, and SCADA running in the factory make 75K. Of course there are only two or three of them and they have to have degrees and years of experience.

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  31. softwarengineer

    RE: Cheap South @ 29

    Boeing is a Manufacturing Mouse Compared to the Big Three Auto Makers

    GM sold $70B in sales alone in 2010, compared to Boeing’s $49B. Last I heard, GM exports more cars than they sell in America….hence, bigger than Boeing’s approx $29B in exports. And GM almost went bankrupt and is hobbling around in 2010, compared to past heyday years.

    Kia alone added about $10B to our trade deficit in 2010.

    I don’t want to go into molehills like airplane maintenance and video games, TOTALLY low profits and sales in comparison to major manufacturing industries.

    The trouble with PNW folks, we don’t get much manufacturing news that adds up.

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  32. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: softwarengineer @ 31 – I would suspect that auto manufacturing is much less labor intensive (more automated) than airplane manufacturing. If the discussion is of jobs, that’s more relevant. In making that distinction though you’d have to note that Boeing now scatters jobs both around the world and the country.

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  33. Lurker

    By pfft @ 25:

    By Hugh Dominic @ 24:
    RE: pfft @ 23 – Easy credit. You’re a fool for thinking that’s coming back.

    the stock market came back. haven’t you guys learned that we never stop doing foolish things?

    Now here is something I can agree with you on :)

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  34. Blake

    RE: David Losh @ 28
    Re: “There will be a decrease in wages. There is no way we can sustain a $75K manufacturing job.”

    Germany does… It’s called productivity, working training, and investment in education, plants and equipment. Germany leads the world in exports and actually has a national industrial policy. While the US “leadership” (I put that in quotes) specializes in “financial engineering.”

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  35. Cheap South

    RE: softwarengineer @ 31

    I just did a quick search and Boeing is indeed the largest exporter (by $). American car makers don’t even export to Mexico. Most American cars do not meet foreign gas mileage requirements, and the speedometer has to be in IS (metric) for all exports. It’s easier to have the factories located in the big markets around the world, and move cars from there. In fact, our own cars have parts from all over the world.

    Boeing lost jobs to globalization, sure. But the rest of the major Seattle employers (all about 30 years old or younger) never moved jobs overseas in significant numbers.

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  36. tiger

    funny the wall street journal just said yesterday the pacific northwest is the most over-valued housing region in the U.S.

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  37. Ross Jordan

    By Cheap South @ 35:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 31

    I just did a quick search and Boeing is indeed the largest exporter (by $). American car makers don’t even export to Mexico. Most American cars do not meet foreign gas mileage requirements, and the speedometer has to be in IS (metric) for all exports. It’s easier to have the factories located in the big markets around the world, and move cars from there. In fact, our own cars have parts from all over the world.

    Boeing lost jobs to globalization, sure. But the rest of the major Seattle employers (all about 30 years old or younger) never moved jobs overseas in significant numbers.

    And it does seem that several companies, Boeing included are looking at their outsourcing strategy and may be changing direction:

    http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/sundaybuzz/2014125414_sundaybuzz06.html

    With a different dollar valution, emerging market inflation, and increased energy (i.e. shipping costs), part of the outsourcing incentives will be reduced. That’s not to say the many jobs will come back, but I think the trend will at least slow and in particular cases, some jobs may be insourced.

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  38. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: Ross Jordan @ 37 – Second sourcing is difficult/impossible with large airliner pieces, so the 787 outsourcing scheme was stupid from the start. I would expect to see continued outsourcing on the smaller components, although that hasn’t worked out so well for Toyota! ;-)

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  39. softwarengineer

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 32

    I Thought the same Thing too Kary

    But believe it or not, GM’s 200,000 employees and Boeing’s 160,000 employees produce about the same sales mass, about $300,000+ per employee [GM has about a 15% edge].

    I remember in the 90s when Boeing was about $80K of sales per employee and the Ranier Beer plant was $250K sales per employee (all automated)….my guess is more commercial off the shelf stuff is increasing Boeing’s sales per employee [even if you doubled or trippled the old $80K for an inflation factor]…..good gawd, the beer manufacturing must be like $500-800K sales per employee today….LOL

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  40. softwarengineer

    RE: Cheap South @ 35

    Show me the URLs’ Evidence

    I’ll agree to disagree. BTW, I can show you mine.

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  41. softwarengineer

    RE: Ross Jordan @ 37

    Don’t Hold Your Breath

    The 787 [if it ever flies] is almost entirely outsourced by total sales. As the 7 billion on planet earth fight over the remaining resources left on earth, getting buyers of American stuff is like pulling teeth, the way Boeing does it lately, is they get foreigners to buy by giving them a piece of the manufacturing action.

    Insourcing technicals [with masses of laid off and new college graduates ones hanging around in the U6 or Ghost crowd] is a total joke, probably for the next 50 years too….but never ask a corporist CEO that question or a non-engineer from MSM, they’ll seriously lament labor shortage of techs…LOL

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  42. Cheap South

    By softwarengineer @ 40:

    RE: Cheap South @ 35

    Show me the URLs’ Evidence

    I’ll agree to disagree. BTW, I can show you mine.

    Please; in dollars, Boeing is the largest exporter. Google it. And American cars overseas are made overseas by overseas workers. GM and Ford have plants pretty much everywhere you find their cars. And by the way, you would not recognize most of those cars. They are smaller, get excellent mileage, and have instrumentation in the IS system.

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  43. Cheap South

    By Blake @ 34:

    RE: David Losh @ 28
    Re: “There will be a decrease in wages. There is no way we can sustain a $75K manufacturing job.”

    Germany does… It’s called productivity, working training, and investment in education, plants and equipment. Germany leads the world in exports and actually has a national industrial policy. While the US “leadership” (I put that in quotes) specializes in “financial engineering.”

    Absolutely. But of course, I doubt their executives take home what ours do.

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  44. deejayoh

    By Cheap South @ 42:

    By softwarengineer @ 40:
    RE: Cheap South @ 35

    Show me the URLs’ Evidence

    I’ll agree to disagree. BTW, I can show you mine.

    It’s much easier to export your product when you can just fly it to it’s destination

    Please; in dollars, Boeing is the largest exporter. Google it. And American cars overseas are made overseas by overseas workers. GM and Ford have plants pretty much everywhere you find their cars. And by the way, you would not recognize most of those cars. They are smaller, get excellent mileage, and have instrumentation in the IS system.

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  45. Hugh Dominic

    I remember when mobile phone giant HTC was looking to open an office in Seattle, they were shocked to hear that a VP in that industry will expect $300k in total comp. Back in Korea, the rate for that job is $75k.

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  46. karl

    Boeing offloads what they can. The work that stays in house is what nobody is willing to bid on.. the margins are too small

    The required equipment/skilled labor is expensive and the FAA required paper trail is staggering.

    you can not compare aerospace to autos…apples-n- oranges. You do not see many cars leaving here on a frieghter…you see shreaded scrap metal..they turn it into chevy’s and fords when it gets there.

    .

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  47. David Losh

    RE: Hugh Dominic @ 45RE: Cheap South @ 43RE: Blake @ 34

    OK, a worker can make $75K with a benefits package. Germany is a good example. Possibly Boeing, in the past, would be a good example. It’s just not what we do.

    I think Real Estate is an excellent example of how the United States does business. When people ask me about the Real Estate business I tell them they should start a house painting company. That’s the highest return on investment in the trades. No, No, No, they want to learn the business end of the business. Most people think of that as sales, with the Mercedes, sun glasses, and cock tail parties. Well, no they don’t want to do that once they find out that takes a 24/7 commitment to get things happening.

    Everybody wants to have the 5,000 lot, or Super Mall, or 2,000 rental units. Everybody wants to get paid for playing with the paper work, and working on the computer. Once you have on the ubber casual clothing, and get paid for something like E-Trading, then you’re doing something close to $75K or even $200K.

    Work? Production? That’s for those other people to do. We’re Americans and we have the God given right to sit on our ass to get paid.

    Seriously it is possible to form a perfect company where all team members are compensated well. The problem I see is the computer has made making money like shooting fish in a barrel. The computer amazes me. What people can do with a computer, what I can do with a computer, amazes me daily. There are no limits to what can be accomplished. So I don’t see manufacturing paying what it used to here, in the United States. In my opinion our future is tweaking the business models to make more while doing less.

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  48. Ross

    By Hugh Dominic @ 45:

    I remember when mobile phone giant HTC was looking to open an office in Seattle, they were shocked to hear that a VP in that industry will expect $300k in total comp. Back in Korea, the rate for that job is $75k.

    HTC is from Taiwan I believe, not Korea.

    That said, globalization is eventually going to normalize salaries out. The US will go down a bit (possibly just happening via not keeping up with inflation). and the emerging markets will go up. Things won’t get perfectly even, but free markets will seek equilibrium.

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  49. Hugh Dominic

    RE: Ross @ 48 – Yes, Taiwan you are correct. I mixed it up with Samsung in Korea.

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  50. Jonness

    For all of you openly euphoric bottom callers who are hiding the fact you’re are scared to death you’re on the verge of a career change due to lack of RE sales: I apologize you have worked so hard in vain to pump the market with monthly false claims of new bottoms. Telling mistruths is not easy for any of us, and I realize how this must effect your sense of self worth. But we must all do what is necessary to feed our families amidst a time of runaway food prices and rates going through the roof on our 2007 ARM mortgages.

    It’s extremely unfortunate house prices have continued to fall into the sewer despite all the falsities that you’ve claimed. Personally, I had high hopes Bernanke could save you, despite the fact he was completely blind to the bubble forming as he presided over one of the worst Fed policies in U.S. history. And I truly feel bad, he continues to claim everything is OK despite his horrible track record of claiming everything is OK while the world has collapsed around him.

    I hope I can offer some helpful advice by recommending that if you sell a house this month, be sure and stock your underground bunker up with guns, food, ammo, and toilet paper. This party is only getting started, and RE will be the last sector to pull out of this horrible economic nightmare due to always lagging a jobs comeback, which won’t occur for several more years.

    See next post for a full explanation :).

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  51. Jonness

    RE: @
    “SEATTLE — A record number of Seattle homeowners are under water on their mortgages as local home values continued to decline by double digits over the past year, according to a new report by Seattle-based Zillow.com.

    Home values for the metro area fell 12.4% year-over-year, Zillow said in its fourth quarter real estate market report. In King County, the year-over-year drop was 10.3%; in Snohomish County, it was 13.7%.

    Zillow said a record high 34% of Seattle homeowners were under water on their mortgage in the fourth quarter of 2010 compared to 27.7% in Q3 and 22.8% one year earlier. A homeowner is said to be under water if more is owed on the home loan than the home is worth.

    The company said 28% of all homes sold in December sold for a loss compared to 26.8% the third quarter of 2010 and 20.0% in December 2009. Nationally, 34.1% of all homes sold for a loss.”

    http://www.kirotv.com/news/26795616/detail.html

    “While foreclosures fell in January from a year earlier nationwide, the Seattle area didn’t join the party, according to a new report.

    The number of foreclosure filings last month was down 17.2 percent from January 2010 for the country as a whole but up nearly 45.7 percent in King, Pierce and Snohomish counties, the foreclosure information firm RealtyTrac reported. Filings rose 1.4 percent nationwide from December to January, while jumping 14.5 percent in the Seattle area.”

    http://www.seattlepi.com/business/435169_foreclosure09.html

    To all of the honest and forthright RE agents out their, I apologize for the sarcastic nature of my posts. To the rest, rot in a hot place.

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  52. Jonness

    “King County median home price for Jan. hits 6-year low”

    http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2014119664_homesales04.html

    In other news, the Kiro piece on the underwater mortgages interviewed a RE agent who described the Seattle market as “hot right now.”

    The news caster injected a little bit of reality moments later and said area prices are back to summer of 2004 levels. :)

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  53. Scotsman

    RE: Jonness @ 52RE: Jonness @ 51RE: Jonness @ 50

    uh, right. you bears can’t see the truth when it’s right in front of yor furry faces. i guess you missed the fact that l.a. ca. port traffic was up 12.4% yoy and rail shipments are up to. the recesion ended years ago. check the stock market and see. heres a link

    http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=109×33925

    opps, wrong link. oh well. get over it and admit you are wrong.

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  54. Scotsman

    heres the right link bubbleheads

    http://www.opposingviews.com/i/paul-krugman-idiot-or-morally-bankrupt-liar

    huh. something is wrong with my computer or somethink but you no what i mean

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  55. One Eyed Man

    RE: Scotsman @ 53

    Looks to me like the dealer’s called a game of ad hominem, strawman snark. Lets look around the table and check everybodies cards to see if we want a seat at the table.

    The guy whose all in cash, is holding out in hopes of a big payday at the end of the night. But he’s been all in cash for one of the biggest stock market bull runs in history. Perhaps a dash of humility and its strategic cousin called diversification would have improved his luck, as well as his disposition. He seems eager to point fingers at just one political party for all the bad cards. Perhaps someone should remind him that the borrow and spend era was both started and legitimized by the demigod of the GOP.

    But isn’t all this snarkyness at the table really just directed at cocoa pfft? I think he’s the only one who ever played the Krugman card and the only one whose ever requested certain players “admit they’re wrong?” But ironically the dealer won’t play with cocoa pfft cause the dealer promised not to respond to him anymore. Hence the need for the strawman.

    But its that cite to “opposingviews” that I love the most. In one of their other stories on the page, they felt the need to “debunk” a story in “US” magazine because it said things about Palin that weren’t true. As if anybody had to be told that “US” magazine might be a bag of shyst. That smacks of being a little bit paranoid and more than a little bit overly defensive. Perhaps we should debunk Grimm’s Fairy Tales too.

    I guess I’m not really up for a game of strawman, ad homenim snark even though it is kind of fun in a sick sadistic sort of way. In the end, its just another form of my weiner’s bigger than your weiner. And when everybody claims their little finger is six inches long, its really just liar’s poker anyway.

    Editorial postscript: Pfft, even though I called you “cocoa pfft” (which I apologize for cause I think the name might stick), please don’t respond to this post. This was an attempt to somewhat humorously attack Scotsman for being a bit of an ideologue and posting what is IMO modestly substantive tripe primarily because he can’t resist the temptation to rant at you and Krugman even after he said he would no longer respond to you. Scotsman’s a big boy and he can take it (although I hope it pissed him off at least a little cause as my wife tells me, I’m a sick sadistic bastard who likes to make humor at other peoples expense.)

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  56. Scotsman

    RE: One Eyed Man @ 55

    Ah, what a great way to start the day- rousing a liberal Seattle lawyer and putting his panties in a bunch.

    Missed market returns? An expert and lucky market timer may be making something of this “recovery,” but for the vast majority of stockholders who have everything in a managed retirement account they didn’t sell soon enough last time, and they won’t sell soon enough in the coming crash. Most are still hoping to break even. Last time I checked they were at only 12/14th of what they held just a couple years ago. The term “cherry-picking” comes to mind. I guess “still negative, but improving” is the new positive- kinda like housing.

    I’ve snickered for some time at your constant sexual references and innuendo, and wondered why it is your mind often wanders in that direction. It seems a bit like junior high, but I’ll give you room to work out whatever the issues are. But let’s leave my wiener out of it, OK?

    Finally, “cocoa pfft” is good- a tip ‘o the cap- but then you accuse me of ad hominem attacks? Man, did you just get out on the wrong side of the bed today? Or did you not get to sleep in the bed at all? Grab some coffee and go read a little Huff-Po. You’ll feel better in no time! Cheers!

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  57. One Eyed Man

    RE: Scotsman @ 56

    From the open thread, congratulations on the success’ of both your kids. It’s always good to see young people do well and I’d be proud of them too! Just remember ya’ old bear, you promised your daughter you’d be more optimistic.

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  58. Kary L. Krismer

    By David Losh @ 47:

    RE: Hugh Dominic @ 45RE: Cheap South @ 43RE: Blake @ 34 – OK, a worker can make $75K with a benefits package.

    If Obamacare isn’t changed, in 2015 that will be any employee earning minimum wage that also has medical coverage. ;-)

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  59. Kary L. Krismer

    By Jonness @ 51:

    To all of the honest and forthright RE agents out their, I apologize for the sarcastic nature of my posts. To the rest, rot in a hot place.

    I already posted the bogus Zillow story yesterday in the open thread. When I wrote a piece on that type of study in 2009 I entitled it: “Have We Become a Nation of the Extremely Gullible?” Apparently some of us are still gullible.

    http://blog.seattlepi.com/realestate/archives/175675.asp

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  60. softwarengineer

    RE: deejayoh @ 44

    And Boeing Planes’ Commercial Off the Shelf Parts Aren’t Mostly Outsourced [and Even Insourced] Domestic Jobs’ Replacements?

    LOL….give me a break….what do you think Boeing’s Mulally became Ford’s CEO, the guy’s gifted at outsourcing everything and he’s done it to Ford too.

    I’m the group with engineering/business degree(s), so don’t want foreign automobile assembly in America with no headquarters in America hiring engineers and business graduates, what the hades good does it do our unemployed professionals, especially the masses of experienced unemployed ones?

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  61. Lo Ball Jones

    Our economy is so successful it doesn’t need us any more.

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  62. Ben

    RE: Scotsman @ 54 – Scotsman, you might like the following blogsite:

    http://krugman-in-wonderland.blogspot.com/

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  63. pfft

    By Scotsman @ 56:

    RE: One Eyed Man @ 55
    Missed market returns? An expert and lucky market timer may be making something of this “recovery,” but for the vast majority of stockholders who have everything in a managed retirement account they didn’t sell soon enough last time, and they won’t sell soon enough in the coming crash.

    I am not sure that you know about asset allocation. most people aren’t 100% stocks so you’re wrong about this eaxmple. most portfolios if they are 50 stocks/50 bonds or 60/40 are making new all-time highs. even a riskier 70/30 portfolio is making new highs.

    http://www.riskcog.com/portfolio-theme2.jsp#5e80e8d

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  64. deejayoh

    RE: softwarengineer @ 60 – not sure what you are disagreeing with that I said, which was basically that the planes fly.

    But I will give you a break :)

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  65. EconE

    RE: pfft @ 63

    Sweet!

    Did the owner of that site rebalance your portfolio for Five Bucks also?

    http://www.fiverr.com/users/riskcog

    Did you get your money’s worth?

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  66. pfft

    By EconE @ 65:

    RE: pfft @ 63

    Sweet!

    Did the owner of that site rebalance your portfolio for Five Bucks also?

    http://www.fiverr.com/users/riskcog

    Did you get your money’s worth?

    I don’t use them at all. I just use the portoflio tool to backtest once in awhile.

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  67. Jonness

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 59:

    By Jonness @ 51:
    To all of the honest and forthright RE agents out their, I apologize for the sarcastic nature of my posts. To the rest, rot in a hot place.

    I already posted the bogus Zillow story yesterday in the open thread. When I wrote a piece on that type of study in 2009 I entitled it: “Have We Become a Nation of the Extremely Gullible?” Apparently some of us are still gullible.

    http://blog.seattlepi.com/realestate/archives/175675.asp

    For four years I’ve argued the overall price trend of Seattle houses remains down. Of course, January MLS data has proven me right.

    It’s understandble that most RE agents are still gullible. If they don’t sell they don’t eat.

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  68. Kary L. Krismer

    By Jonness @ 67:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 59:
    By Jonness @ 51:
    To all of the honest and forthright RE agents out their, I apologize for the sarcastic nature of my posts. To the rest, rot in a hot place.

    I already posted the bogus Zillow story yesterday in the open thread. When I wrote a piece on that type of study in 2009 I entitled it: “Have We Become a Nation of the Extremely Gullible?” Apparently some of us are still gullible.

    http://blog.seattlepi.com/realestate/archives/175675.asp

    For four years I’ve argued the overall price trend of Seattle houses remains down. Of course, January MLS data has proven me right.

    It’s understandble that most RE agents are still gullible. If they don’t sell they don’t eat.

    That’s somewhat random. You think the January NWMLS numbers were the first numbers that showed a decline? You think real estate agents are not aware of the decline?

    Also, it’s rather off topic to my point that the Zillow study is bull.

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  69. Jonness

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 68:

    You think the January NWMLS numbers were the first numbers that showed a decline? You think real estate agents are not aware of the decline?

    Apparently not. Last night on the local news the RE agent being interviewed described the Seattle RE market as, “hot right now.” Apparently, she’s about as aware of prices falling into the sewer as all the BS Realtors who came before her who called a new bottom every passing month and claimed, “now is a great time to buy.”

    Meanwhile, for the last 4 years, I’ve told the truth about the overall trend direction in prices. Yeah, I know, most agents have their fingers crossed and are clicking their heels repeating, “if I can just make it til Spring, if I can just make it til Spring.” And of course, we’ll hear the usual line of BS in the Spring about how the typical Spring bounce is a sign of having hit bottom in the winter. Buy now or be priced out forever. Yada, yada, yada. I’ve heard this nonsense for 4 years and counting; yet, we just reached a new low in January (after witnessing the Case Shiller steadily fall for many months in a row).

    The truth is, prices can’t meaningfully appreciate until the massive backlog of foreclosures work their way through the system. Meanwhile, the overall trend of Seattle house prices remains down.

    Once prices bottom out, I’ll unleash the large downpayment I’ve been saving while wading through years of BS bottom calls. And to top it off, I’ll claim a 75% refund of Ray Pepper’s commision (sorry Ray, I love free money).

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  70. Jonness

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 68:

    Also, it’s rather off topic to my point that the Zillow study is bull.

    According to you it’s bull. According to me, what has spewed from the mouths of the RE industry for the last 4 years is bull. January price data verifies my claim.

    And I’ll believe what Stan Humphries says about the Seattle market long before what I believe what the NAR or NWMLS says about the Seattle market. I’m not gullible enough to believe each passing month is a new bottom and represents a great time to buy. Unfortunately, many people who are gullible are currently underwater on their homes and experiencing the worst economic nightmare of their lives.

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