Posted by: The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

209 responses to “Guess What”

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  1. grumble

    Congrats on the new home! Can you talk about your thought process, and why you felt this was the home and time for you to jump in?

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  2. Ira Sacharoff

    I hope the ramen isn’t indicative of all you can afford to eat now that you’re a mortgage slave.
    Looks like a fabulous house, old world charm but nicely updated, and a house that would sell for than twice what you paid for it if it were located in Ballard( I cheated by looking it up). Congratulations.
    My only two questions:
    1. How’d you get so lucky to have a short sale close so quickly?, and
    2. Are you commuting into Seattle, and how is that going if you are?

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  3. grumble

    By The Tim @ 2:

    RE: grumble @ 1 – Short answer: We needed to move anyway and buy vs. rent was in favor of buying for the location & type of homes we wanted to live in. Long answer: Forthcoming in the aforementioned series of posts.

    I noted the “we”, and the presence of a wedding ring in the picture… family expansion on the way?

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  4. Kary L. Krismer

    I really like that style of cabinets, and also the back splash.

    I hope the food choice isn’t indicative of all that you can now afford. ;-)

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  5. Pegasus

    Is that a batch of crack that you are cooking up in your picture? I hope the anticipated Boeing hiring boom bails you out in the future. What was the story on the 5 month flip on the house in 2006 for about 100K increase?

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  6. Kary L. Krismer

    I just checked it out beyond the picture. You bought an old house! Great! That makes the cabinet choice even better. Love all the wood throughout the house. Can you tell if it’s mainly original?

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  7. Kary L. Krismer

    By Pegasus @ 6:

    What was the story on the 5 month flip on the house in 2006 for about 100K increase?

    My guess is that they added two bedrooms, a 3/4 bath and that they sold it FSBO to someone not knowledgeable of values (although perhaps they fixed it up in other ways too).

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  8. ESS

    Mazel Tov to the Tim!! As you well know – it all comes down to the particular deal for the particular individual(s). If the deal makes sense, then it doesn’t matter what is happening elsewhere.

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  9. James Baker

    Hah, congrats!

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  10. S-Crow

    - congrats Tim. Welcome to the big Sno-Co. Sweet house.

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  11. alex

    What’s the opposite of “pump and dump”?
    Is it “trash and grab”?
    Buy five more houses and the SEC will come for you, I’m sure!

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  12. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: The Tim @ 12 – Wow, so they bought it before it was changed? Sounds like the classic case of an unrepresented buyer on a FSBO. I assume they split the commissions savings. :-D

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  13. Snigliastic

    Only five blocks from the courthouse!

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  14. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: The Tim @ 18 – If the seller’s lender was directing escrow (as opposed to the seller’s agent), that’s probably an explanation for how it closed so quickly.

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  15. Julie Lyda RE/MAX Northwest Realtors

    Well the TIm bought a home.

    That must mean we”re at the bottom! ;)

    Congratulations TIm.

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  16. MarkM

    Major congrats Tim!

    It’s easy for this site to lose focus. Some on here seem to think us “holdouts” will never buy. But in the end, I think it was the general idea that what appears to be a small group of folks had the notion that there was a bubble forming in the real estate market and it wasn’t a good time to buy (ie they’re not building more land!… lol Seems quaint notion now, yes?)

    I think anyone who decides to take the “plunge” and buy a home at this point avoided the worst scenario (buying at the absolute peak). If home prices drift down another say 5% does it really matter if you bought the house that you really want (and possibly the home of your dreams?).

    I really don’t think we’ll ever see crazy double digit growth in home prices like we did in the past for a lot of reasons which have been addressed on here so I won’t echo those out again.

    What’s that? You plan to have a house warming party for all us BubbleHeads?… ;-)

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  17. Julie Lyda RE/MAX Northwest Realtors

    That was a joke Tim, hence the winky smiley.

    However I would add that I think we are bouncing along the bottom and will be for a long time.

    Also, buying “smart” like you did (well below your means) also protects you from rising rents. Is your new home payment less than the rent payment you were making?

    When you write up your purchase story, let us know what type of financing you used, like a 15 year or 30 year mortgage. Do you plan on making extra payments to pay your home off sooner?

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  18. softwarengineer

    Excellent Wide Open Eyed Choice Tim

    I did the same thing in 1999, before a real estate bubble was even envisioned by most pundits. I bought in the same range too, about 15% of net pay, albeit with HOA, insurance and property taxes thrown in though….but I was a bit older I imagine, so about the same risk mitigation by age, for falling prices in the future. Some of my friends and the realtors then that felt 35-50% net pay in debt was OK back then, thought I bought WAY below my salary level in 1999 and what I actually qualified for….today, they call me Mr. Softwarengineer….LOL

    I also had a fear back then that buying big priced properties in 1999 with more and more population density mitigating per capita wages in Seattle would make the lower priced units much more sellable in the future. After hearing of the trouble a neighbor is having finding a qualified buyer for even a $119K home recently, I was spot on. So were you.

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  19. Lo Ball Jones

    That house would sell for $90,000 in Auburn.

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  20. jj

    Nice house – in a couple of years you will be able to harvest some equity and buy that yellow H2 hummer you wanted.

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  21. jeff

    I love the tree in front of the garage.

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  22. The Desponder

    By The Tim @ 24:

    RE: Julie Lyda RE/MAX Northwest Realtors @ 23 – …The payment is a few hundred less than I would pay if I were to go rent a house that met my needs today… For the mortgage, we went with a plain vanilla 30-year, but plan to pay slightly more than the 15-year payment on it, which should result in paying it off in less than 14 years.

    Congrats Tim… and great textbook example of how to do it the right way.

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  23. softwarengineer

    RE: The Desponder @ 30

    Pay that Principle Off as Fast as You Can

    I bought my home on a 30 yr loan in 1999, but a 10/20 loan too….meaning it was fixed interest for 10 years, then automatically refinanced on a 20 year loan as needed. It wasn’t needed, got that puppy principle paid off within 10 years….its like an early retirement once its paid off too.

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  24. S. Marty Pantz

    Congratulations! Now that you’ve finally settled your personal house-buying situation, you can focus on better ramen: http://www.ramenrater.com/

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  25. Chuck Ponzi

    Welcome to the dark side. It’s only a matter of time before you start flipping, right?

    Chuck

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  26. ;

    first redfin, now a home. the housing-cult has slowly claimed another bear.

    i admit, your buying makes me have second thoughts but only for a second. then i come to my senses.

    i expect you will -not- become a dumbass just because you bought – like has happened to so many new buyers. i do, sadly, expect an ever so slightly more pro-housing blog. possibly articles on the joy of BBQing on the patio, benefits of growing your own garden and the elation of watching TV at night without disturbing the renters downstairs.

    congratulations.

    p.s. the software was removing newlines so my paragraphs were getting clumped into a single big paragraph

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  27. Brady

    The recession is over! yesss!

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  28. HappyRenter

    The typical question: Are planning to have children?

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  29. deejayoh

    Congrats Tim! Looks like a nice place.

    I love this part of the realtor’s description:

    Master Suite Has 5 Piece Bath with Large Closets & Sliding Glass Doors To Huge Party Deck.

    Wow! There are large closets and a door to a party deck in your master bath?

    Oh, and Shugy sez: “According to Zillow, you are underwater.”

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  30. Rhonda Porter

    CONGRATS!!! :)

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  31. jo

    Look like a very nice pad

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  32. Jamie

    It’s called Seattlebubble.com, not Everettbubble.com, what on Earth were you thinking?

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  33. NewHomeOwnerInFremont

    SELLOUT!!!!!! J/K. Congratulations on the new home, Tim. & thanks for this site.

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  34. Ryan

    Congrats Tim, and thanks for the education along the way.

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  35. Kary L. Krismer

    By The Tim @ 40:

    By deejayoh @ 38:
    Oh, and Shugy sez: “According to Zillow, you are underwater.”

    Heh. Well that would be quite a trick considering the 20% I put down. Even when you factor in the 10% cost to sell I think I’ll still be above water for at least a few months. ;^)

    That’s amazing that Zillow could be so far off on a house that was sold within the past four years. If the neighborhood is fairly consistent as to house type (e.g. most houses built before 1940, two story, etc.), then that would be even more shocking.

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  36. S-Crow

    I’m donating money to Tim via his tip jar….for some home improvement tools to get at Lowe’s down the street from his new home!. It’s Memorial Day Weekend so there’s going to be some deals!

    WHO’s WITH ME!

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  37. Kary L. Krismer

    By Jamie @ 42:

    It’s called Seattlebubble.com, not Everettbubble.com, what on Earth were you thinking?

    That the bubble was only in Seattle! ;-)

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  38. Greg Perry

    It’s been ages since I’ve visited here. Congrats on your closing, Tim.

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  39. Lurker

    I’ve been waiting for this post. Congratulations The Tim and thank you for all that you’ve done on this site!

    Love the ramen photo :)

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  40. jillayne schlicke

    Ahh. The nesting instinct is powerful. Congrats to you and your wife! A housewarming meetup is in order! For all u have done for us….

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  41. Tim McB

    The Tim,

    Congrats on the new house. Did you end up using a real estate agent (Redfin?), an attorney, or some other arrangement? I’m guessing if you used an agent that’s a pretty big feather in their cap. It might even appear on their business cards next month (Agent hooks the white whale, can sell to anyone). My guess is that you didn’t though.

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  42. Hello

    We just got our offer accepted last week on our dream house in Bothell, and the possibility that the housing prices may still drop significantly kept making me doubt if I made a smart decision. But now I see that you bought a house, it makes me feel much better :)
    Congratulations!

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  43. One Eyed Man

    So with a little sweat equity to finish the lower level The Tim scored what appears to be an approximately 2700 sq ft newly remodelled vintage craftsman for about $85/ sq ft.

    Nice. It probably even makes Scotsman jealous. I know it does me. I was working for a judge 5 blocks away at the Snohomish Co Ct House in 1980 when the house sold for 75K and I know I couldn’t have afforded it then. But 30 yr rates were just a little higher in those days.

    And good choice of representation too!

    But as nice as the house is, it’s probably nowhere near as nice as the people in it.

    Congratulations. And thanks again for the incredible public service you provided with this site.

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  44. Jonness

    Hi Tim:

    Who is that cool-looking guy in the photo sporting the goatee eating Top Ramen so that he can afford to pay his mortgage?

    Congratulations Tim! You waited a lot of years for this moment, and I suspect you will get a lot of joy from your purchase. I understand your desire to buy, because I’m in a similar situation as you. I’ve been on the fence for years and have made several offers. Fortunately since I’m a horrific low-baller, the sellers have saved me from my weakness.

    Prices will continue down for a while. What ultimately occurs will have more to do to the national economy and less to do with Seattle itself (note in your charts how the tax credit caused similar patterns across the nation). There are still many factors at play that will matter. Fiscal and monetary stimulus, foreclosures, unemployment, lending standards, the state of Fannie, Freddie, inflation vs. deflation, the global economy, China, Europe, local factors…

    In short, if the U.S. economy can heal, you’ll lose less money on your purchase decision. You managed to buy when mortgage rates were really low, so that will offer you some protection (if you don’t move within 10-years). Now you just have to figure out if you want to pay an extra $500/mo. on the mortgage in order to whack the principal in a hurry, or bet on inflation and use future dollars to pay off the loan (assuming you took out a big ol’ loan).

    We knew you were cracking Tim. It started coming out in your posts. “There is no such thing as a good time to buy, only your time to buy.” Yeah, we screamed and yelled that prices were still correcting, and the fundamentals were not right for a bottom. But we knew that hot redfin money was flowing in faster than house prices were falling, so it didn’t matter to you. As much as you are banking from The Fin, why not?

    Personally, I’d like to wait another year or so before pulling the trigger. We’ll see what happens. :)

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  45. One Eyed Man

    RE: S-Crow @ 46

    I’m in, but I’m notoriously cheap so some other people better pony up to make up for me.

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  46. Craig Blackmon

    Tim, you yourself commented a few weeks ago that now MIGHT be a good time to buy, depending on your situation (sorry no time to find link). So you’ve hardly gone to the “dark side”. Indeed, you’re the proto-Buy-Now buyer: mortgage rates remain historically low, market has undeniably corrected itself significantly (albeit probably not fully), you have a long-term ownership timeline, you have other external reasons for buying (no. 8 above), and you found a house well-priced and well within your means, thus insulating yourself to a degree from further price drops. Nice work and congrats!!

    Is it just me, or does anyone else think that a Bubble Housewarming Party for the Tim would be the Party of the Century?? Set the date Tim and we’ll be there!

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  47. Jonness

    BTW, that’s a great little house at a sweet price! :)

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  48. Kevin

    I appreciate the full disclosure.What’s with the little lot/structure on the alley behind you? Or is that just a Redfin property line bounding box rendering glitch?

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  49. hoary

    Way to go The Tim! Being a homeowner is a great feeling and makes you work a lot harder to get your debts paid off.

    How are the neighbors? I hope they are aware they have a K-list celebrity living next door! Also how are the schools?

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  50. Cheap South

    Congratulations and enjoy it with all the health and…..dammed I promised myself I wouldn’t cry!!

    Really looks like a beautiful place. Let me call it a ” great find”; only Ray can categorize it as a “gem”.

    By the way, what do you know about the surrounding elementary school?

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  51. Dirty Renter

    Congratulations.
    I hope your pink pony likes the yard…you didn’t leave him in Arizona after you took the picture did you?

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  52. IHMHL

    RE: The Tim @ 24 – Congrats Tim!
    Wondering why did you not just go for 15 year loan? Must have got it at a lower rate, no? I am sure the payment would have then been well below your means too.

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  53. Drone

    I’ll add my voice to the congratulations. I don’t often congratulate people for buying anymore (because so many of them still overpay) but it looks like you’ve scored yourself a really deal that will serve you and your future family well. Hope to follow in your footsteps in a year or so.

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  54. The Danza

    Congrats, Tim. I just had an accepted offer on a house in St. Louis that has had my stomach in knots…but this news makes me feel a bit better about buying. My PITI will be roughly 60% of equivalent rentals in the area and I paid 1996ish pricing for the place. But with all your and these posters help and a little (giant) push from the spousal unit I final made the jump. Hope it works out…for us both. Keep us updated. Don’t be suprised if you have a few six packs of Boulevard Single Wide IPA on your doorstep in the near future purchased from the Co-op at the Everett Public Market. And if any one wants to join be in a good old fashioned grade school style egging and tee peeing…let me know!

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  55. Scotsman

    Congrats are in order- a well thought out move with little potential downside and lots of pluses. With 20% down a minimum wages job will pay the note and leave a bit for the Ramen variety pack. Of course momma will have to work too.

    It looks like a great house, in good shape, with the potential to add square footage and value. I’ve looked a similar situations over the last few months, figuring that while I’m not ready to pull the trigger on a more substantial purchase there are homes for sale that could work now and become rentals in the future. And since one possibility we’re looking at is building, having an existing home to live in during the process that was stable (i.e., not a rental) could be a plus. There have been a couple REOs in the $120-180K range around that fit the bill. Still I think Fall will be a better time to purchase.

    The best news I’ve read in these posts is that you’re thinking of expanding the family. Going the adoption route not only helps you, but makes the world a better place for all and confirms a generous spirit. My wife and I had hoped to adopt above and beyond our own two kids, but my oldest daughter’s cancer adventure tied up the years it needed to happen. Hats off to you, and good luck!

    Remember, a can of tuna perks up the basic Ramen and adds needed protein. ;-)

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  56. joe dirt

    I bought a foreclosure last year, and put in offer on short sale two days ago. Unless you are worried abou a double dip or economic calamity from the deficit, there is no reason to wait anymore.

    Bottom may not be in for normal sales, but seems to be for distress sales.

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  57. ARDELL

    .83 x AV. Hard to beat that deal with a stick.

    Congratulations to you and your wife. May you enjoy it for many years to come.

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  58. Neverabrogatedcommunity

    Good on ya, Tim! Neat place and good call for your family.

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  59. EconE

    Nice place! Congrats!

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  60. Kary L. Krismer

    By ARDELL @ 76:

    .83 x AV. Hard to beat that deal with a stick..

    Assessed values in Snohomish are even more meaningless than in King County.

    Even prior to the peak they were often high. I had an expert witness situation where even the expert that wanted a high valuation couldn’t get his valuation as high as Snohomish County’s, and they adjusted it up the next year again!

    I’m not saying it isn’t a good value, especially for an older house like that with exposed wood. I’m just saying I wouldn’t ever base that on assessed value in Snohomish County.

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  61. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: The Tim @ 55 – I’m surprised Redfin doesn’t make an exception for employees that want to buy a short sale. That seems a bit strange.

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  62. LA Relo

    Congrats! Makes me feel better about buying right now if the Seattle Bubble Author himself is buying.

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  63. ARDELL

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 79

    It’s “YAY The-Tim Day”, Kary. nuff said.

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  64. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: ARDELL @ 82 – I’ve already said how much I like the house and what I like about it. I’m just commenting on your method of valuation.

    I just looked at one of the properties I’m dealing with right now, and the client is picking it up for less than 50% of AV, and it’s not a fixer. Until now I never even thought to look at its AV, because it’s practically irrelevant even though it’s in King County where they’re more accurate than Snohomish.

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  65. EastBellevueEtherBinge

    Absolutely awesome.

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  66. David

    So this what the rapture is like! Congrats seems like a fair price based on it’s historical value.

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  67. James

    Does it have FiOS?

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  68. Notorious ART

    Tim,
    Congrats on the new house! We closed on our house a few months back and I used Redfin. I guess I won’t see you on the bus anymore.

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  69. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: The Tim @ 88 – In case you don’t know, if you don’t care about cable channels, you can get “limited basic” for under $5 a month, after a $10 a month credit, if you have Comcast Internet.

    And either way, this would be perfect for that: http://www.silicondust.com/products/hdhomerun/prime/

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  70. joe dirt

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 89

    I have comcast basic and with HDTV built in QAM tuner am able to watch HD channels (no set top box rental) and actually get more channels than advertised.

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  71. joe dirt

    RE: The Tim @ 70

    Interest rate is the other reason not to wait. Recently I was cleaning up and found a paper slide mortgage calculator circa 1990 – it did not even go below 6% !

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  72. David North

    Tim, your credibility remains intact, at least until you start a new blog about how math works differently in Seattle than elsewhere, and how artificially deflated Seattle real estate prices are, and how nobody in their right mind would resist leveraging to the hilt to own the biggest possible piece of guaranteed future (talkin’ weeks, not years) wealth. But I’ve heard there’s a lot more (and well-funded) competition in that space, so I’m not sure I’d recommend it.

    Your purchase affirms the truth that everyone ought to be comfortable with, that real estate isn’t all about math or all about lifestyle. It’s about some balance of both, which balance is unique to each individual based on their respective goals and situations.

    Congratulations!

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  73. Kary L. Krismer

    And in related news, Real World Express has been banned from this forum. ;-)

    http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2011/05/24/heres-why-selection-stinks-right-now-around-seattle/comment-page-1/#comment-132477

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  74. Ross

    A sincere congrats to you Tim. Looks like a very reasonable and affordable home. Also, kudos to you for being so open and transparent on your purchase with this opinionated community (a home purchase, after all, can be a pretty personal choice).

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  75. Ross

    By The Tim @ 18:

    RE: S-Crow @ 14 – Thanks! I’m just sorry I couldn’t use your services for closing. Seller’s lender was particular about using Chicago Title.

    FWIW, I had the same issue when purchasing a REO, the seller insisted on using their preferred title company (who also happened to be Chicago, though not a local office). Technically, that’s a violation of RESPA:

    Section 9 of RESPA (12 U.S.C. §2608) states that:
    “1. No seller of property that will be purchased with the assistance of a federally related mortgage loan shall require directly or indirectly, as a condition to selling the property, that title insurance covering the property be purchased by the buyer from any particular title company.

    2. Any seller who violates the provisions of subsection (a) of this section shall be liable to the buyer in an amount equal to three times all charges made for such title insurance.”

    But by the time most people buy their home, they usually aren’t up for pursuing a RESPA violation – so it seems this rule is frequently violated, especially with REO/short sales.

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  76. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: Ross @ 95 – I’ve not looked into that specifically, but I think they do sometimes have some sort of an out for the buyer to switch escrows, or maybe do a sub-escrow or something. So they’ll specify escrow in the original contract, but then you have the opportunity to change. For example, in the Fannie contract, there’s a clause that says the purchaser has the right to select their own independent escrow, but when you make the offer they will select the escrow.

    For short sales though the short sale coordinator may very will be associated with the escrow, and it wouldn’t generally be a good idea to switch unless you knew something about them.

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  77. Ross

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 96:

    RE: Ross @ 95 – I’ve not looked into that specifically, but I think they do sometimes have some sort of an out for the buyer to switch escrows, or maybe do a sub-escrow or something. So they’ll specify escrow in the original contract, but then you have the opportunity to change. For example, in the Fannie contract, there’s a clause that says the purchaser has the right to select their own independent escrow, but when you make the offer they will select the escrow.

    For short sales though the short sale coordinator may very will be associated with the escrow, and it wouldn’t generally be a good idea to switch unless you knew something about them.

    In my case, the (REO) seller’s addendum was pretty clean (i.e. there was no official requirement to use their title). But the listing agent made it clear that I would need to specify the seller’s title company of choice (on my offer) or the offer would not be accepted. I think that falls into the “require indirectly”, but I ultimately didn’t pursue it.

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  78. David North

    RE: Ross @ 95 – The section you cited deals with title insurance, not closing services.

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  79. Ross

    By David North @ 98:

    RE: Ross @ 95 – The section you cited deals with title insurance, not closing services.

    My bad, I thought we were talking about title insurance.

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  80. Scotsman

    100 comments or bust! Oh, wait a minute. . .

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