Guess the Price Round 3: A Familiar Ballard Home

We’re still awaiting the final results of Guess the Price Round 2 (the home went contingent on 09/29 at a list price of $569,900), but that doesn’t mean we can’t kick off Round 3, especially if the right house comes along… and wouldn’t you know it, the perfect house for a Seattle Bubble price-guessing contest just hit the market a little over a week ago.

Here’s a refresher course on how the game works. I’ll describe a home that’s currently on the market, giving you as many pros and cons as I can, and you guess what the final sale price will be when/if it sells, and the closing date.

Be sure to enter your real email address into the form when you leave your guess in the comments, because the winner gets a $25 gift card to the restaurant chain of their choosing. Don’t worry, I’m the only one that can see the emails that are entered. The winner is the person whose guess is closest to the final sale price, above or below. If there is a tie, whoever guessed closer to the correct closing date will be declared the winner. Contest closes to entries at midnight the morning of December 1st, or when the home goes pending, whichever comes first.

7310 19th Ave NW Seattle, WA 98117Today’s “Guess the Price” guest star is 7310 19th Ave NW in Seattle. With a current asking price of $437,000, this home has been on the market for 10 days, and is neither bank-owned nor a short sale. It sits between the Loyal Heights Playfield and Salmon Bay Park in the north end of Ballard, where the median sale price of single-family homes in October was $388,000.

Built shortly after the second world war in 1946, this 1-story home (with basement) has 3 bedrooms and 1.75 bathrooms. According to King County records, 880 of the home’s total 1,380 finished square feet are above-ground, with an additional 500 in the basement. There is also a 1-car garage in the basement. The listing agent claims that the home’s architectural style is “Cape Cod,” but it doesn’t look like any Cape Cod home I’ve ever seen.

7310 19th Ave NW Seattle, WA 98117At 4,080 square feet, this home’s lot is slightly smaller than the 5,100 square foot lot that seems to dominate the neighborhood. The house sits up quite a bit from the street, with nicely-landscaped terraces on either side of the ~25-step staircase that leads to the front door. Despite the home’s elevation above the street, there is no view to speak of.

Inside, you’ve got your typical hardwood floors throughout the first floor (save for the kitchen). The bedrooms are nicely laid out, though they do feel a bit small. Some of the electrical appears to be dated, with numerous ungrounded outlets appearing around the home. The living room has a wood fireplace, while the basement den sports a gas fireplace. The bedroom in the basement has only one small window near the ceiling (seen in the photo at left). The ceilings in the basement are about seven feet tall.

7310 19th Ave NW Seattle, WA 98117In a refreshing deviation from the bubble days, the kitchen counters are not granite, but are tiled instead. The cabinets are dated, but functional. There is no dining room, just a small extended area off the back of the kitchen, large enough for a small four-person table. There is a good-sized garden window off the kitchen’s dining area.

The back yard is small, but functional, with a few small raised garden beds and a sandbox. The brick patio is easily large enough for entertaining, though it is not covered. The home’s siding looks like it might be asbestos (though I am not an expert in this field), and the roof appears to be in good condition—probably less than ten years old.

Last time this house was sold (April 2005) it went pending in three days and sold for $42,250 over the asking price, closing at $431,200. This coming weekend the listing agent is hosting open houses on both Saturday and Sunday if you’d like a chance to see the home in person before making your guess.

Summary of 7310 19th Ave NW

  • Pros
    • Ballard location
    • quiet street
    • nice landscaping
    • large brick back patio
    • hardwood floors
    • no obvious quality issues
  • Cons
    • ~25 steps from street to front door
    • small, sloped lot
    • low ceiling in basement
    • no egress window in basement bedroom
    • floorplan slightly cramped
    • dated electrical, ungrounded outlets
    • siding may be asbestos (?)

So, what say you? How much will this home sell for, and when will it sell?


About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

57 comments:

  1. 1
    trucker says:

    WAG – $395,000 on March 15, 2012.

  2. 2
    ChrisM says:

    If there’s no egress window, is it a bedroom?

  3. 3
    The Tim says:

    RE: ChrisM @ 2 – Not legally speaking.

  4. 4

    It Will Sell on April Fools’ Day, 4/1/12

    It will sell for $356K.

    The buyer will go underwater in 2013 by $50K, but since only one of the two incomes buying it got butcher axed next year, with the help of Top Ramen for eats and Good Will for clothes, the family can barely make the $2000+/mo house mortgage and escrow payments for another year…. on the $279K loan….

  5. 5
    me says:

    $290k, Nov 2012.

  6. 6
    ChrisM says:

    RE: The Tim @ 3 – Again, I float my idea of having MLS giving agents that report violations a cut of the fine…

  7. 7
    Nic says:

    March 16th, 393k

  8. 8
    Scotsman says:

    Me Shuggy to the right- me shuggy to the left- stand up, sit down, Fight! Fight! Fight!

    What? Oh, sorry. . . .

    OK, say it sells for $400K in April, 2012- 84 months after purchase. And let’s assume he put 10% down on the purchase and had an average rate of 5%. PITI would have been $2518/month. At $400k sales price $31K of the original down is gone along with $36K in selling costs at 9%. So $67K divided by 84 months equals $797/mo plus the PITI of $2518 for an equivilent rent of:

    —– $3,315 —–

    But. of course, they got a “tax deduction” and the pride that comes with home ownership. No sure if the landscaping improvements were there to start with or an additional expense. Not the worst example, but no deal either, unless you’re rich. Like I’ve said, home ownership atthis time is a luxury and only for those who can take the loss.

  9. 9
    Dave0 says:

    $310,000 on 3/1/2013

  10. 10
    WestSideBilly says:

    $437,000 – April 2026

    Wait, that will be the owner after the next.

    Real guess: $403,000, 2012 April 15 (100th anniversary of the Titanic sinking)

  11. 11
    ARDELL says:

    RE: ChrisM @ 6

    Reminded me of one of my favorite Al Pacino speeches…”But not a SNITCH!”

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Tzg_S4NrRQ

  12. 12
    Kristian says:

    RE: Scotsman @ 8 – PITI includes principal payment, right? Shouldn’t that part be excluded for calculating equivalent rent?

    My guess: $387k, April 20th 2012.

  13. 13
    Lisette says:

    In my opinion it is worth about $275k

    Will most likely sell for $409k (overpriced by a long shot) and closing probably in or around May 2012

  14. 14
    toad37 says:

    Hi The TIm.. let’s guess 433k on 12/15/11.

  15. 15
    Jason says:

    $418,000 on December 20th, 2011. It’s got a buttload of feng shui, yo.

  16. 16
    gr8day says:

    Considering this house is loosing value at about 6-8K per month…and considering the owner set a “make me move” for $565,000 in 2/09 and one for $450,000 in 8/11 (which IMO, means he thinks the home is worth more than I do, and may hang on for a higher price)…and considering the “updates” include brass fixtures…and the Master bedroom is in the basement and does not have legal egress…and the appliances are not stainless…it does have a highly rated elementary school though…but only 880 sf on the main level for those children to play in…

    My guess $393,950, closing on April 12.

  17. 17
    Scotsman says:

    RE: Kristian @ 12

    What I was getting at is that his true cost to live there for 84 months (7 years) was (assuming it sells for $400K) $3,315 a month. The question then becomes would he or anyone else have been willing to pay that as rent? I don’t know. I wouldn’t- I would have bailed long ago. $278,000 seems like a lot to pay for nice but basic shelter over 7 years.

  18. 18
    pdmseatac says:

    The siding is indeed cement-asbestos shingles. I actually like these, as long as none of the shingles are cracked or broken. There are a lot of houses around Seattle with this stuff, and it is harmless as long as you don’t take the shingles off, grind them up, and snort the dust.

  19. 19
    Lurker says:

    385k May 2012

    Ballard is so hot right now!

  20. 20
    redmondjp says:

    RE: pdmseatac @ 18 – I’m with you on the shingles – they will still look just as good 100 years from now with minimal care – they are brittle however. Many of the houses in the town I grew up in had this very same siding (still working just fine after 50 years, for most of them, with some having been re-sided over with aluminum or vinyl which won’t last as long).

  21. 21
    Grant says:

    $410K on January 15th.

  22. 22
    uwp says:

    Ahh, a blast from the past!
    396,000. March 22, 2012

  23. 23
    deejayoh says:

    By Scotsman @ 17:

    RE: Kristian @ 12

    What I was getting at is that his true cost to live there for 84 months (7 years) was (assuming it sells for $400K) $3,315 a month. The question then becomes would he or anyone else have been willing to pay that as rent? I don’t know. I wouldn’t- I would have bailed long ago. $278,000 seems like a lot to pay for nice but basic shelter over 7 years.

    Well, tax deduction was probably $600-700 per month, so nothing to sneeze at. But there are also taxes at $4k per year.

    That said, most homes in Ballard purchased in 2004-06 for sale today are listed at 10-20% off their last sale price – especially those that haven’t been significantly remodeled. This one is pretty premium priced, and going into the slowest sales period of the year.

    I’d guess $380k in April of 2012

  24. 24
    kfhoz says:

    $395k May 2012. You never can tell how long a seller will wait before lowering the price. We have all seen them follow the market down.

  25. 25
    Hugh Dominic says:

    Ballard location is a pro? I disagree.

    $405k feb 3rd

  26. 26
    Kmac says:

    By ChrisM @ 2:

    If there’s no egress window, is it a bedroom?

    It was when it was built.
    Cars older than 1968 aren’t required to have seat belts or emission equip. in them for a similar reason.

    People always want to apply current standards to old houses for some reason.
    Now would I want to have my kids in a basement bedroom like that?- Absolutely not!

    Comment editor is slower than a snail.

  27. 27
    Azucar says:

    $370K, June 8 2012.

    Ballard is a “pro location” compared to, say, the east side if you work on the west side. It’s also better than, say, Shoreline if you work downtown or south of downtown or in Magnolia.

  28. 28
    Dweezil says:

    Selling for 421k to the bank on 10/16/2012.

  29. 29
    lecadidupe says:

    The listing refers to that sensory-isolation chamber in the basement as a “bedroom.” Without a window for egress, it legally is not.

    The house sort of looks like nothing. It was built in that immediate postwar era when builders started evolving toward the “rambler” style.

    Anyway, remember, folks, how the great majority of us overestimated the selling price, if indeed it sold, of the Guess the Price II house. With that in mind, I’m going with 300 on Oct 15, 2012 (just _slightly_ more optimistic than “me’s” prediction of 290 in Nov. After all, buyers are a-hesitatin’ these days; wouldn’t you after seeing c.15% YOY declines?

  30. 30
    lecadidupe says:

    PS: looking back at the owner’s comments from the good old days, they really are quite poignant. He’d see that Zillow showed it being worth 40K more than he’d paid and he’d eagerly share with everyone his tales of instant equity.

  31. 31
    KC says:

    First, the NWMLS should have a red flag attached to any listing where the real estate agent lists a 3 bedroom house where the 3rd bedroom is IN THE BASEMENT WITHOUT AN EGRESS WINDOW! Call it a 2+ bedroom, but not a 3. Enough about that. To get any sort of traction with first time homebuyers, this house will have to be listed under $400K. Holidays and crappy winter weather will cut into any sale possibility. Final sale price on March 10, 2012 will be $347K – slightly 2X the price paid in 1996.

  32. 32
    Jonness says:

    I stated in another recent post I thought the house was worth about $360K, but will eventually be worth less than $300. I’ll stick with my $360 sales price, but the market has to warm up a bit, so let’s put it in August, 2012.

  33. 33
    Macro Investor says:

    Like most online listings, the square footage seems confused and possibly inflated. Is it 1520 or 1380 per county records? 500 feet is basement with low ceilings, which I consider of poor quality. It’s really a tiny 900 square foot house on a tiny lot.

    My guess is $368,000 September 1, 2012… because some sucker will overpay just to say they live in Ballard.

    Personally I wouldn’t go higher than 220k. It’s like a 2 bedroom condo with a downstairs family/storage/utility room at best.

  34. 34
    Peter Witting says:

    RE: Macro Investor @ 33 – I like compact, well-built houses that have storage. I’ll take that over a moldy crap-box in the ghettos of Lake Stevens.

  35. 35
    Jesse says:

    It’s nearly in that magic neighborhood of Whittier Heights – it will sell. $395,000, March 1st, 2012

  36. 36
    lecadidupe says:

    By Peter Witting @ 34:

    RE: Macro Investor @ 33 – I like compact, well-built houses that have storage. I’ll take that over a moldy crap-box in the ghettos of Lake Stevens.

    Well, then step right up, and don’t be shy! It’s even got a Seattle Stye Manual-conforming red door!

    -lecadi
    -but if you DO decide to buy it, I’m going to complain to The Tim that you shouldn’t be eligible to receive that $25 gift certificate…

  37. 37
    Macro Investor says:

    By lecadidupe @ 36:

    By Peter Witting @ 34:

    RE: Macro Investor @ 33 – I like compact, well-built houses that have storage. I’ll take that over a moldy crap-box in the ghettos of Lake Stevens.

    Well, then step right up, and don’t be shy! It’s even got a Seattle Stye Manual-conforming red door!

    -lecadi
    -but if you DO decide to buy it, I’m going to complain to The Tim that you shouldn’t be eligible to receive that $25 gift certificate…

    Let him have it. He’ll obviously needs a lot of help.

  38. 38
    Jacob Beaty says:

    375K May 2012

  39. 39

    By KC @ 31:

    First, the NWMLS should have a red flag attached to any listing where the real estate agent lists a 3 bedroom house where the 3rd bedroom is IN THE BASEMENT WITHOUT AN EGRESS WINDOW! Call it a 2+ bedroom, but not a 3.

    No window at all, or no window you can get out of? If the former it should be listed as a 2 bedroom. I’m not sure whether egress is required for it to be considered a bedroom. My guess is probably yes.

    Generally it’s a bad idea to over-state a listing. It’s better when the people come look at your house that they’re impressed rather than disappointed. The example I’ve given in the past was a 2 bedroom house listed as a 4 bedroom, where I knew the tenant. He indicated people would come in and leave quickly–probably because they were expecting 4 bedrooms. The same listing started out listing the garage as two cars, possibly because you could part two Smart Cars end to end. The listing took forever to sell, and only sold once it was properly listed.

  40. 40
    John says:

    $398k. Feb 4, 2012.

  41. 41
    Peter Witting says:

    RE: Macro Investor @ 37RE: lecadidupe @ 36 – You are right – I *could* use that $25….so I better throw in a guess. Can’t win if you don’t play.

    $409,950 on March 31, 2012.

  42. 42
    Hugh Dominic says:

    RE: lecadidupe @ 30 – Where do you see the comments? This isn’t rentersarelosers’ house, is it?

  43. 43
    WestSideBilly says:

    This predates rentersarelosers by several years.

  44. 44
    Peter Witting says:

    RE: Hugh Dominic @ 42 – Does meshugy ring a bell?

  45. 45
    FenceSitter says:

    He must be motivated to sell – already dropped his price to $424,900.

  46. 46
    Peter Witting says:

    RE: FenceSitter @ 45 – In that case, $379,950 on January 3, 2012.

  47. 47
    Tim McB says:

    $389,950, April 30th 2012, not because I think it’ll sell for that but because all the best guesses are taken and I’m angling for a decent spot with a little space around it.

  48. 48
    Macro Investor says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 39

    Very wise to walk out quickly. One of the agents here said when a lie is exposed, don’t bid. I think it was Ardell. If a seller is dishonest about something as obvious as the number of bedrooms, what else is he hiding?

  49. 49
    Brittany says:

    405,000 Feb 1st

  50. 50
    SSMayer says:

    $298,000 June 2012.

  51. 51
    SSMayer says:

    RE: Macro Investor @ 33 – I agree completely.

  52. 52
    Scotsman says:

    RE: Macro Investor @ 33

    ” It’s really a tiny 900 square foot house on a tiny lot.”

    Hey man- it’s the Shuggy Shack, sugar shack, something like that (turn it up!):

    http://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=+song+sugar+shack&view=detail&mid=0A0F8E787806A9A5D4FA0A0F8E787806A9A5D4FA&first=0&FORM=LKVR18

  53. 53
    Azucar says:

    By Macro Investor @ 33:

    Personally I wouldn’t go higher than 220k. It’s like a 2 bedroom condo with a downstairs family/storage/utility room at best.

    Are you saying that you’d like to buy a 2 BR condo in Ballard with a family/storage/utility room downstairs for $220k?

    This one is pending at $180k, but I bet you can find others in that price range!
    http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/5501-11th-Ave-NW-98107/unit-304/home/12092975

  54. 54
    Roger says:

    $367K on 3/15/2012. Instant debtquity.

  55. 55
    Evelyn says:

    $369,000 in March

  56. 56

    […] I am reminded while listing this property of The Tim’s comment of another home featured over on Seattle Bubble: […]

  57. 57

    […] the price-guessing contest posted to these pages on November 8th: Guess the Price Round 3: A Familiar Ballard Home Today’s “Guess the Price” guest star is 7310 19th Ave NW in Seattle. With a […]

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