A reader who wrote in earlier this month contacted me with a
There are SO FEW homes that are 1,500-1,700 square feet (about the square footage I think my family could live in comfortably) that are not split entries (my husband and I find them inefficiently laid out and not very amenable to changes to layout) for sale in the North Seattle/Shoreline area. Many are 3 bd 1 ba 1,100-1,300 square foot homes (a little too small for us, a growing family, I think) and many that are 2,000+ square foot homes, many of them split entries, a floor plan we would rather not buy. We are focusing on homes a mile or so away from I-5 just to make commuting to downtown Seattle easier. We both work there.
Is this because these houses are absolutely fewer in number? Is that square footage unique to a housing development time frame or type of house? Or is it because these are more livable and so people who might put them up for sale otherwise are not in a rush? Or is it for some other reason we haven’t understood?
I guess knowing why would make this house hunt a little less painful. Or at least knowing how rare a house this size is would make it clear whether we (I) should even try to find it.
Also, where the heck are the new listings? Is there a depression in listings around holidays? Do people wait until the kids are out of school to list? After waiting almost 10 years to buy, it’s irritating that I have so little choice.
First let’s try to address the specific question about 1,500 to 1,700 square foot homes. Here’s a trick on Redfin that can help you get a sense for how common a certain type of house is in general. In this example I’ll be searching in Shoreline, but you can do the same thing anywhere. First, to get the total number of homes that have sold in the last twenty years or so, un-check the various listing boxes in the search options dropdown and just check “Sale Records,” then choose “All” in the dropdown. For Shoreline I get 11,400 total single-family sales.
Next, set your square footage and beds/baths parameters. When I choose a minimum of 3 bedrooms, 1.25+ bathrooms, and 1,500 to 1,750 square feet, I get 1,198 results—10.5% of the total.
There are currently just 115 active single-fmaily listings in Shoreline, and just seven that match the above criteria (6% of the total), and two of those are split-entry. Over the last three months, 158 houses have sold in Shoreline, and 12 of them (7.6%) have fit your criteria.
So relatively speaking, the type of home you’re looking for does appear to be less common on the market today as it has been in the past. I would venture to guess that this is probably due to a combination of factors. Primarily I would suspect that many of these homes were bought during the bubble by first-time buyers who believed the lie that they should stretch their budget to get into a home before they were priced out forever. Now that the bubble has burst, they’re stuck in these homes. They can afford to keep making the mortgage payment, so they haven’t gone into foreclosure, but they don’t have enough room in their budget to build any additional savings that might allow them to make a down payment on a “move-up” house.
As for the second part of your question, “where the heck are the new listings?” I’ve been asking that since the start of the year. This year has been the worst on record for new listings. I think there are just a lot of potential sellers that are “stuck,” and many of those that could afford to sell are holding off, thinking that “the bottom” means that things will be better for them next year (they won’t).
What about the rest of you? Do you have any insight into the medium-sized homes that this reader is searching for?
Full disclosure: The Tim is employed by Redfin.
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One of the roots to your problem is very little new construction in this size that are not townhomes or condos. Builders want to maximize their land investment, and a way to do that is build a bigger house. If the lot is worth 200k it’s hard to build a 1800sq ft house and make good money on the sale when you still have the foundation, roof, landscaping, utilities, all not that different from building a 3000sq ft home where you can charge more.
There are exceptions like the cottage company that built in Kirkland – those are really nice little homes but also very expensive.
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I would suggest increasing the size range. By just going to 1400-1800 it roughly doubles the selection. Something like square footage is also about the efficiency of the square footage. Not all 1500 square foot homes are the same. Some would seem larger than others depending on layout.
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RE: yosef @ 1 – In that area almost everything in that size would be built before 2000.
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Homeowners are getting deals of a LIFETIME to stay in their homes…Why sell when you get your principle knocked down 40%-50%? The Mortgage CramDowns are here in FULL FORCE and upside down Bubble Buyers are clicking their heals every month when they get their letters.
Look for increasing short sales over the years to come with HUGE financial incentives to homeowners to sell FOR the bank. Soon nobody will accept the 3000 anymore and everyone will be waiting it out for the BIG BUCKS on the banks dime.
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I actually think this might be a great time to sell your home if you don’t see yourself staying in it for a relatively long period of time, or are expecting to be able to tap any equity . I certainly wouldn’t expect banks to be handling future defaults the way they have handled them over the past few years. Shorter timelines will be the rule, especially if banks go bust and courts take over. And how much “help” will an insolvent government be able to offer? Not much, if any.
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I may get a few thumbs down on this but the first time home buyer tax credit of 2009-2010 not only stole future demand potentially it stole future supply as well. Those types of houses (N Seattle/ Shoreline modest sized, good condition) were very much in supply a year or two ago but now many have been bought up and probably won’t be on the market again for a while.
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RE: Tim McB @ 6 – To some extent, yes, but I think it probably affected the demand side more. Keep in mind that maybe 20-25% of those bought back then were short sales and REOs, so for one reason or another they would have been on the market and sold no matter what back then.
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Re: “where the heck are the new listings”…… this year is going to be very tough for buyers. Almost all my friends who bought in the last few years are convinced that the bottom is in (I agree) and they just need to wait for prices to pick up more (or rent if one has to move). Most folks would rather rent the house if they think it will increase in value over time. Also there is massive amount of hiring going on at local tech companies which should ensure that prices keep rising slowly.
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RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 7 –
I suppose so but stated a different way those 3 bed 1+ bath homes were the bread and butter of what first time home buyers were looking for in the last few years. Enough house for future needs and not too highly priced that they wouldn’t qualify for the credit (as their income would disqualify them.) The writer also appears to be a 1st time home buyer and looking for a similar type house, however, now much of that housing stock is gone in the area that they are looking at. It may not be the only reason but it perhaps could be a contributing reason for the hole, if you will, in the middle of the inventory.
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Split levels are built that way because the site is hilly. Another reason not to like them – the lot isn’t very good.
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By Macro Investor @ 10:
Not always. There are a lot of split entries which were built on perfectly level land. I’ve never understood why for sure, but I assume at one time split entries were popular and did not sell at a discount.
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“What about the rest of you? Do you have any insight into the medium-sized homes that this reader is searching for?”
Only this: Do not worry.
I have it on good authority that they are all coming back.
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Take a look at your odds that a seller will list a property you want, at the time you want to buy, at an affordable price. Then what are your odds that you will be the first one to see it online, and you will be the lucky one who is at the right palce, at the right time to get the house.
What are your odds?
Real Estate professionals get in the car, and knock on doors. You can use the telephone, but like I have said, at some point you still need to meet the people.
Let me share this story again. A commercial Real Estate agent from Spokane picked the neighborhood he wanted to live in. He drove the neighborhood, and found five potential homes that fit his criteria.
He took the list of five homes to the local Real Estate agent, a person who lived in the neighborhood. He said these are the properties I’m interested in can we make something happpen.
The Real Estate agent contacted each home owner to ask if they were interested in selling. One of them did decide to list her home with another Real Estate agent, that agent contacted the original agent, and the deal was pretty much done before the home hit the market.
The entire process, start to finish was six months.
Your criteria may be different, but the process is always about the same. Some one has to ask a home owner if they want to sell. If you ask enough people some one will say yes.
Some times you have to throw a lot of stuff at the wall to get something to stick. Some times all you have to do is ask your land lord, or the person next door.
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RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 11 – I feel obligated to point out that a split entry and a split level are two very different home designs.
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The Wedgwood neighborhood has many homes that fit her requirements (modest, north of Seattle, near I-5). Plus, Wedgwood is established, has good schools, and is close to the Burke-Gilman and bus routes.
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RE: Macro Investor @ 10 – Actually a lot of split level floor plans are built on perfectly level lots. It is kind of ridiculous to put that floor plan on anything but a hilly lot, I agree. Look at this one:
http://www.redfin.com/WA/Shoreline/516-NE-174th-St-98155/home/87329
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I’ve seen a flood of new listings over the past two weeks. Sellers have been “naming their price” and it is not working. Sorry, 2005 is not back again.
Does anyone else notice a drop in pendings when the stock market dips. I can’t prove it, but it sure seems like it…
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Move to South King or Pierce County. You can find all of the cheap housing and fewer snobs there. Stop trying to be a yuppie. You don’t have the financial wherewithal to even be a pretender.
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RE: Peter Witting @ 15 –
The problem in Wedgewood is the price. It’s a great place, good schools, nice amenities, but the prices are a little jarring.
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By wreckingbull @ 14:
I realize that, and even edited my post to change it to split level. Since that was the topic of discussion, I assumed MI just used the wrong term in his post.
The same comment would apply though. I’ve seen tri-levels built on flat land.
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RE: Hugh Dominic @ 17 – It is all dependent on the price of Facebook…..:^)
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RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 3 –
And Like You’ve Alleged Before
And I agree with you….lot prices have plummetted in value too. This makes building smaller/more energy efficient affordable homes much more logical today.
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RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 20 –
Based on Just Eye-balling the Homes Insides
A 1800 SF Split is about the same living area [minus stairs and entree area waste] as a 1500 SF rambler. The washer and dryer aren’t downstairs in the garage area either….loading laundry back and forth on stairs.
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One more bit of advice I’d recommend is to take a closer look at some listings. Try to visualize the potential of the home. A 2 bed 1 bath house with an unfinished basement could easily be turned into a 3 bed 1.75 bath house later if needed. Sure it will cost money but possibly less than what it would take to purchase a 3/1.75 type home.
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RE: Tim McB @ 24 – I’ve seen a few 1.5 bath homes where the half bath had room for a shower. The jump in value from 1.5 to 1.75 bath would be far greater than the cost of putting in the shower.
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RE: David Losh @ 13 – While I typically don’t agree with Loshisms, and have not been shy about that, I think you have made a good post here. I like the approach.
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I would look at smaller houses and plan on expanding in the near future. Adding a second story is probably too much of a pain while living in the house, so look for houses with open land for expansion. Though adding a story on top of an attached garage isn’t so bad.
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RE: wreckingbull @ 26 – Losh does sometimes have very good points, sometimes even brilliant points, but that was not one of them. Unless someone is looking in a very small area, knocking on doors is not likely to accomplish anything, other than have the sheriff called to investigate what appears to be a suspicious scam artist.
The percentage people who are interested in selling their house is not that great, but then when you get withing that group, the percentage of houses you’d want to buy is incredibly small. It’s not like you’re going to like a house just because it happens to be a two story, 3 bed, two bath house. You might like less than 5% of such houses. If you start your search from a group of houses where less than 10% of houses are even available, the percentages get very small.
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This little graphic should help. As Americans have bought more stuff to fill our homes with, we’ve moved further and further from our offices to find enough land to build big homes. Look for neighborhoods built before the 50′s.
The best place to look is in Seattle itself. There are plenty of small old homes in the city (I live in one). Before you get too scared of the price, consider that a long commute can cost you an extra half million dollars over the length of a mortgage.
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Where are the small homes? I’ll tell you. San Diego. I saw this blog and just had to chime in because I am from the Seattle area, now living in San Diego, and I just commented on a blog here in S.D. aksing “where are the decent homes larger than 1500 sq.ft!”
I am surrounded by post-war cracker boxes 1200 -1600 sq. ft with 4-5 bedrooms jammed in.
I would LOVE to find a decent “normal” sized home.
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