At various points in the last few years it has been suggested to me that I should write a book. A book about real estate in general or the housing bubble specifically, from my unique perspective as an engineer turned real estate analyst.
As one of my coworkers recently put it: “Kendra Todd wrote a book, so how hard could it really be?”
I’m not saying that I am definitely up to the very time-consuming task of writing a (high-quality, worthwhile) book, but if I were going to pen my own tome, I’m curious to hear your thoughts about what you would be most interested to read.
Here are some of the subjects that I’ve considered:
- An unbiased how-to for home buying and selling. Provide practical advice and explanations of the process, including non-agent FSBO and lawyer-only options.
- A witty / humorous retelling of the history of the housing bubble (would include much of the material I use here for Friday Flashbacks).
- A how-to for analyzing the real estate market in your own local area—basically a training manual that would teach someone how to do what I do in their own area.
I feel like the first option above is the most crowded market, with dozens of books on the topic already. However, most of the existing books in that space were either written by real estate agents (and therefore are biased in various ways) or are outdated and include amusingly terrible advice about future expectations for home value appreciation.
The second option would probably be the most fun for me to write, and third idea would most likely be the easiest for me to write, but I wonder whether anyone would really care to read either of them.
So what are your suggestions? If you could have your way, what’s the real estate or housing bubble book you’d like to see written, and why?
00
i think the third option because i believe not enough home buyers are doing their homework well enough and need unbiased help for good market decision making. plus,easy for you and will sell many copies making you many fiat dollars!
Rate this comment:
0 
0
I’d like to see exposure of fraud, corruption, or cronyism in the selling of foreclosures and shortsales during the burst of the bubble. I’ve heard so many anecdotal tales of people submitting offers on houses of these types, only to have the offer ignored and no evidence the listing agent ever sends it to the bank. It seems these listings put the agent in a position to only give banks the offer that was most beneficial to the agent.
I can understand how difficult this would be to expose, but it seems like the great untold story of the burst.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
I’d go with Option number 2. People like witty/humorous, and that’s one of your gifts. Plus you’d be writing about a unique historical time that you were a part of. I smell bestseller.
Option 1 would be hard to get people to read, because, as you said, it’s a crowded field, and I’m not sure how you can differentiate it from the myriad of other books like it out there. Yes, you’ve got different things to say, but all the authors say that.
Option 3 would provide useful information, but an entire book dedicated to teaching people how to analyze data could be a real snoozefest.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
I would definitely like to see option #2 immortalized for all time. I think that we (the general we, as in society/humans) have a pretty short memory and will see history repeat itself. Plus, 20 years from now, there will be buyers who never heard of the Great Housing Bubble.
In 2032, as housing sees enormous appreciation, some wise sage will be saying in their virtual reality online discussion holodeck, “You guys need to read Tim Ellis’ book about what happened back at the turn of the century.”
Rate this comment:
0 
0
I would like the witty and humorous retelling of the housing bubble ~ first, I like anything witty and humorous, second there’s alot of material to work with, and finally, it can be presented as a warning or cautionary tale.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
I think the story at this point is best told obliquely, as background to another storyline. Such as something like a police investigation of a serial killer, played by the Annette Benning RE agent character in American Beauty. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SS06JvtlAc8
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: Blurtman @ 6 – With cameos by Kary as the clueless co-worker and victim number 6, and Ira as the pot smoking prime suspect, who uncovers the nefarious RE murder connection, and must escape for his life from one of Mastro’s forfeited mansions.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
I think option #2 would be most entertaining as stated above, but you could also quite easily incorporate the most sentient segments and lessons from option 1 and 3 into the option 2 book.
Say, for instance, a more quick and streamlined version of the analysis in option 3 that led you to question the whole bubble sentiment at the time, and the analyses that allowed you to determine finally when it was the right time (for you) to buy. Or entertaining anecdotes on option 1 situations during the bubble that were stretched to humorous proportions.
That would be informative, entertaining, historical, and a good mix of the dry (but essential analyes and issues) and the soft (humorous anecdotes).
Rate this comment:
0 
0
By Blurtman @ 7:
I don’t need the cameo role. George Clooney can take the part.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
The Tim: Go with option 3 and insert stories from option 2.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
why not compile all your rchive posts into a textbook style softback which you could have endless revisions of and pimp it to universities,professors and the educational industrial complex- I see $dollar$ signs$$$$$!weeeee
Rate this comment:
0 
0
The problem with #1 is it would be largely limited to Washington state, and might be out of date rather quickly.
I doubt there would be that much interest in #2.
So that leaves #3. I think that could be very useful if done right.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
Make sure the story includes sparkly vampires, and you’ll have a hit.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
Tim, you’ve probably considered and rejected what I’m about to say at least in part because you want to avoid the lack of objectivity implied when one has a personal role in the story. And as any good journalist knows, a journalist is supposed to tell the story, not be the story. But I’m a romantic at heart and I’m going to say it anyway. I think you should do a piece that’s perhaps a version of #2 but with a lot more of your personal journey giving context to the story (a family story if you will). After all, isn’t the struggle to create a better life for your family what lead you on this quest to begin with?
The book would integrate you as a central figure on your investigative journey trying to deal with the issue of whether to buy a home and what was going on in the market place as the bubble inflated, burst and deflated. It could combine the entertainment value of 2 and the intellectual value of 1 and 3 into a story line that included stats, math, and the ability of the “common man” to go beyond the industry hype with internet era available data sources. It would have plot, humor, intellectual depth and a central character/narator unraveling a mystery in his pursuit of the seemingly lost american dream.
If people have a hero (or “anti-hero” as the case may be) that they can relate to and identify with, the story is much more likely to capture their interest and give personal meaning to the stats and data which arm the hero (and the reader) to slay the real estate dragons. I believe in science and mathmatics, but they lack meaning without context. The struggle of the individual and his family to understand and overcome the perils of the bubble are the context that make the journey meaningful.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
I think any real estate book would suck other then interviews and pics of “The hottest real estate people in the PNW.”…Kendra Todd could be in there, Steve Tytlers secretary, My wife who walks onto our website when you reach the homepage, me (of course), and quite possibly Ira.
They do it in Los Angeles… http://la.curbed.com/archives/2011/08/las_hottest_brokers_round_1_heat_3_meet_the_last_eight_women.php
You’d probably sell more copies doing this, then anything else. Put me down for a calendar.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
Agree on #2.
The real estate industry takes themselves way too seriously (except for Ira) and humor can actually be educational. Why not bridge the gap between humor and knowledge, not unlike Jon Stewart has done with politics? Seriously, if you look back at the last 8 years and can’t laugh, you don’t have a pulse. I mean, really, look at the material you have:
http://www.bloodhoundrealty.com/BloodhoundBlog/?p=114
Rate this comment:
0 
0
Tim, what are your top 3 most read/visited articles from this blog?
Those are likely what topics you should choose from.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
I am a native southern Californian who has lived here for several decades. I came across SeattleBubble while reading the Irvine Housing Blog from Larry Roberts back in 2006-7. He too commented on the local real estate market (in Irvine, Orange County, California), using lots of stats and a decidedly anti-realtor outlook. It was truly eye-opening. Or maybe eye-popping!
He also wrote a book, which he self published and distributed himself. I don’t think he got rich. It was along the lines of #2 above. It was very informative, but could have used some judicious editing. So Tim — if you are going to write a book (and I think you should), get an editor and don’t quit your day job!
Rate this comment:
0 
0
I just need to vote again for #2, because I am starting to think back on the history of this blog and I am literally starting to crack up. Here are a few gems I can remember:
1. Finance Guru, the downtown condo lady’s man. No way his condo was going to lose value, because hey, he was The Finance Guru. Hmm….’Guru’, I think we have heard that term in the last week.
2. Larry Cragun’s attack on you, and then you meeting him at some RE blogger event later on. Did he bring up the attack? Say “I was just kidding”?
3, Lovable Meshugy. I think we all look back at him with a slight tinge of fondness. At least the guy believed his own BS, and did so honestly.
4. Angry Mac – WTF hapenned to that guy? Did he self-destruct?
5. The 100-year wars – Ray vs. Millionaire Mike, Kary vs. Pegasus, etc…
6. Ray’s periodic stomach condition report, post-Claimjumper.
7. Eleua slashing and burning.
The list goes on and on…
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: tomtom @ 13 – Forget the sparkly vampires. It’s all about the pink ponies.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: One Eyed Man @ 14 – I completely agree with One Eyed Man. That would be a book I’d want to read. It reminds me of one I just finished, actually: Gimme Shelter by Mary Elizabeth Williams
http://www.amazon.com/Gimme-Shelter-Mary-Elizabeth-Williams/dp/1416557091/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1340409253&sr=1-1&keywords=mary+elizabeth+williams
It’s got personal anecdotes, stats, history etc. and it really paints a picture of that place and time (NYC, early 2000′s real estate scene). I’m sure you could do it without being quite as precious and annoying as that author was at times. ;-)
Another one in that vein is Busted: Life Inside the Great Mortgage Meltdown by Edmund L. Andrews: http://www.amazon.com/Busted-Inside-Great-Mortgage-Meltdown/dp/0393067947/ref=sr_1_4?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1340409950&sr=1-4&keywords=busted
where he details his many awful real estate bubble mistakes. It’s a train wreck, basically, and you can’t resist.
p.s. thanks for posting the link to Kendra’s book. Reading the bad reviews was fun.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: Lilypad @ 21 – p.p.s. I asked advice from all of you in 2009 re going through with a short sale or staying put and hoping the market would come back. We ended up doing the short sale and have been happily renting for the last 2-1/2 years. The home we sold is still worth about $175,000 less than we paid for it. Tim, I am a happy customer. I will read any book that you write!
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: wreckingbull @ 19 –
8. Kary and Adelle’s constant flirting…
Rate this comment:
0 
0
Here are some titles that come to mind, feel free to use them: “The Pink Pony Club Flies Into The Sun”….”Millionaire Mike and Me”….”RedFin Is Not A Tuna”….”Guess Who I Found Lurking In My Bushes In Everett?”…. “Mr McKrismer’s Garden” ….”How To Get Idiots To Stop Posting On Your Blog”….”Secret Real Estate Agent Tricks”…. “Real Estate Secret Agents”….. “Teaching Your Real Estate Agent Stupid Dog Tricks”……..I have many more if needed…
Rate this comment:
0 
0
You should speak more. You have a great presence when you speak; it’s even handed, matter of fact. You’ve handled press well.
I think your book should be about your blog. You’ve done a great job keeping a bunch of characters in line, and moving forward.
More people would envy your web presence if they were looking at it the way they look at Dustin Luther.
The book would be the thing to help you sell the speaking engagements. Those engagements you could video, because as I was saying you have a great presence.
By selling your own products you could monetize your site, and keep it going.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
A mix of 2 and 3 would be great to read.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
Two and three would go together pretty well… the analysis part being illustrated and made clear by the real history of the bubble, and made more light and easy to read by sprinkling in some humor about characters/kooks.
My suggestion for a title is “An Engineer in a Real Estate Agent’s World – the Unauthorized Autobiography of a Bubble Blogger” (Unauthorized to make it sound more saucy.)
Rate this comment:
0 
0
As was mentioned above, I wrote the book you described in #2, The Great Housing Bubble.
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0615226930?ie=UTF8&tag=thegrehoubub-20&linkCode=as2&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=0615226930
You can get the PDF here.
http://www.thegreathousingbubble.com/images/uploads/book/The%20Great%20Housing%20Bubble%20ebook%20%28printable%29.pdf
Writing a book is a lot of work, and getting it published by a major publisher willing to bankroll the marketing necessary to sell many copies is very difficult.
Like you, I have many readers who enjoyed by writing style and analysis, and I thought I had the support to make it successful. I did sell a couple thousand copies, but I lacked the credentials and fame required to get the big book deal. I had a complete manuscript and a strong real estate background, and my book came out at a time when there was a stronger interest in this issue, and after contacting dozens of publishers and agents, I was not able to get traction. I’m not saying you couldn’t, but the odds are strongly stacked against you. If you decide to go that route, I wish you the best of luck. I will buy a copy when it comes out.
IrvineRenter
Larry Roberts
Rate this comment:
0 
0
Yup, 2 for the intro half followed by a generalized 3 that would work in all regions.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
An amusing book about the housing market and its excesses is called
House Lust
By Dan McGinn
I recomend this fast but informative read to everyone
Rate this comment:
0 
0
Do an expose on short sale tactics. The abuses are rampant and you might actually help clean it up. You can go undercover as a former streetcar conductor trying to find a home for his cars.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
By Scott @ 17:
This one wins hands down:
2.242 comments, 06/21: The $ex Offender Bogeyman
A Classic! It could be a book in its own right.
BTW, suggest you have Kary as your ghostwriter. He’s an authority on almost every topic…
Rate this comment:
0 
0
Here’s the link. Great stuff!
Rate this comment:
0 
0
By Scott @ 17:
Here are the top 10 most-viewed posts of all time, as of right now (note this only counts views of the post’s individual page, views on the main front page aren’t counted separately):
Despite MichaelB’s unhealthy obsession with sex offenders, the post he linked comes in way down the list at number 135 with less than half as many views as #10 above.
The subjects of those posts are so all over the map, I’m not sure that they’re much help in gauging what potential book topic would have the most interest.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: The Tim @ 34 –
Tim, not sure about unhealthy obsession, but perhaps more of a case of “beating a dead horse”. … Apologies. I saw it as being #2 commented in 2011.
Seattle Bubble is a great blog, with lot’s of interesting posts as you noted above. I’m bearish on the Seattle real estate market, think the bubble hasn’t completely burst, and that you made a mistake in purchasing in Everett – but that doesn’t mean I should take it out on you.
I’ve gotten a lot of enjoyment out of reading the various blogs and posts over the last few years and I thank you for that. This is a great blog for taking the pulse of the Seattle real estate market.
Best of luck to you in your career as a blogger and author! For what it’s worth, I would pick #2 and make sure and be able to have a bit of a laugh at yourself as well..
All the best!
Rate this comment:
0 
0
I’ve popped in and out of your blog for a few years now, and I have to say that the only thing that keeps me coming back is the analysis. For that reason, I think #3 is your best option. No one else has a concise guide to housing analysis out there. It should be required reading for appraisers, Realtors, and serious home-buyers.
Simply put, with Option #3, you have the ability to write THE authoritative work on the subject of real-estate analysis. You could make it a snoozefest, but only if you abandon your wit and sense of humor, and leave out some of the real-world deceptive practices you’ve uncovered over the years.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: The Tim @ 34 –
It’s the number of comments, and the exchanges of views, culminating with I think one of those kitten kickers defending himself.
It’s kind of like the Bromies? an innocent post with a picture, and all of a sudden you are the center of a controversy.
I’m going to say again that I find the internet a fascinating place, and you have gathered some of the most interesting characters, that seem to self regulate, more, or less.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
#2 sounds good to me!
Rate this comment:
0 
0
I vote for number two — a book about the bubble. Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it, or whatever the cliché is. Who best to chronicle the events and amuse us than The Tim, and you have practically written the book using your old columns.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
All three are good, but I think No. 3 will be the most helpful.
Looking forward to it!
Rate this comment:
0 
0
I agree with mixing #2 and #3. I think a book with a focus on #3 using anecdotes from #2 would be a fun read on a topic very few have tried to cover.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
RE: One Eyed Man @ 14 – I like One Eyed’s idea–kind of like The Four-Hour Work Week, but without the arrogance and self-centeredness. My idea, though, would be a lesson for the general public, and public policy makers in particular, about how to understand and make proper use of house price data so that we can support housing growth that avoids sprawl and actually meets the needs of all types of households at all income levels, instead of bending over to builders and realtors who don’t know supply and demand from macaroni and cheese.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
Just one note based on years of authoring/co-authoring/editing/producing/packaging nonfictions books, most in the how-to computer area but various other:
We had a saying among my professional gang: “There’s no such thing as an easy book.” Writing book proposals is *so fun,* but actually writing the darn thing, getting all the zillion pieces in place, is a really, really big job. Every time.
Also low odds of making much money. There are exceptions of course, and there can be ancillary benefits for career etc. But just to say.
You should go talk to the Sasquatch folks. They did Jim Stacey’s book back in the day.
http://www.sasquatchbooks.com/indexdown.htm
I can get you an editor’s name if you want.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
I think the third option. I love what you do and read your blog near daily even though I live in Annapolis. There are just so many interesting places you can go from a data perspective with the third option.
Rate this comment:
0 
0
#1 would be awesome! I would love a real estate guide focused on quantitative, value investing-style advice like the kind you give in your (fantastic!) blog. #3 seems like it would fit in well with the ideas in #1, perhaps in the later chapters of the book.
Please write this book and I promise to buy one! :)
Rate this comment:
0 
0