A reader pointed out to me this week that it has been three years since I updated the long-term chart of King County home prices back to 1950. So, by request, here is an update to that chart as of May, along with the affordability index over the same time period.
In the first quarter of 2012 inflation-adjusted home prices had retreated to roughly the same level that they were in Q2 1999. The bounce we’ve seen in the median price so far in Q2 2012 has brought prices back up to Q2 2002 levels.
Ten to thirteen years, zero real appreciation. What a great long-term “investment!”
Sources:
(1946-1992 Home Prices: Seattle Real Estate Research Report)
(1993-2012 Home Prices: NWMLS)
(Misc. Price Data: Seattle Times)
(Inflation Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics – Consumer Price Index)
(Household Income: US Census Bureau)
(1950-1970 Interest Rates: Financial Forecast Center)
(1971-2012 Interest Rates: Federal Reserve)
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RE: wreckingbull @ 98 –
How would you possibly know that?
It was a listing of mine that no one wanted. I bought it with two partners for $1. We paid Mrs. Nicolosi, Philip’s mother $2K for the dishes, because that was fair, and took over the debt which we renegotiated.
I bought out the partners, knew nothing about the business, but lived there until I did.
It sold for $35K on a contract at 10% interest for three years.
I continue, from time to time to consult with restuarant owners, and opened one in a hotel some years ago.
The only reason that I’m responding is because I would like to revive the original business of Rumblefish Espresso.
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By David Losh @ 100:
Let’s maybe work with some real numbers. The $120,000 after 13 years is actually pretty close, assuming the initial rate was 7%. To then refinance over 15 years (increasing your total term by 3 years, your payment would be about $850.00 at 3.5% interest.
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By David Losh @ 1:
You bought a property from your own client? That’s a good way to get sued and lose your license.
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RE: wreckingbull @ 98 – You and Losh are peas in a pod. He at least keeps trying to talk numbers. You don’t because you’ll get the same schooling… not just by me, but everyone else… Try making an intelligent comment about real estate, or zip it.
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RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 99 – Where’s he gonna park it when it’s not rented? 7-11 next to his apartment?…..
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RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 2 – I personally would have refinanced over 30 years. but you don’t have to refinance at all to make what I’m saying work…
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RE: David Losh @ 1 – Holy smokes!!, wreckingbung!! hahaha…. he sold his business for 35K and aspires to open a coffee stand….. I paid twice that much in income taxes last year, talk about credit where credit is due, I should get a metal for supporting you democrats… Wow, that’s some success, what’s your next step in life? buy a dump truck together and live in it… jesus, that’s just sad…
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RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 103 –
You are always allowed to do that as long as you have marketed the property to the very best of your ability.
The lease was the best part of the deal, the space needed work, there was debt, and bad will from the person who inherited the business.
The alternative was that the person who listed with me would be sued by the land lord.
As long as all disclosures are made you can indeed buy your own listing.
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RE: corndogs @ 7 –
You’re forgeting that the business cash flowed after the first six months, broke even after the first three.
According to your numbers that business did much better than your “investment.”
Work the numbers, then get back to me when you have something to say.
The dump truck is an old saying in Real Estate investing, it always pays more.
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Hey, wait a minute, that mukoh person was also bragging about paying $70K in taxes.
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By corndogs @ 6:
I was trying to not increase the time to pay off by a significant amount. There are two potential problems with refinancing: (1) The cost; and (2) Resetting the clock.
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By David Losh @ 8:
David, you don’t know what you’re talking about. I will repeat so that other agents don’t make the same mistake. Buying your own listing is likely to result in your being sued and losing your license. It’s an incredibly stupid thing to do. About the worst thing that an agent could do.
Look at the appellate court case that Craig Blackmon recently won–Grace v. Hanks or something. There the seller and the agent couldn’t even agree on what the facts were. So good luck proving you fully marketed the property–that’s not a disclosure type of fact.
BTW, it’s likely a transaction that is presumed fraudulent under Washington law. I’m basing that on a Washington case that has a presumption a transaction between an attorney and client is presumed fraudulent. I don’t know why a transaction between a real estate agent and their client would be any different.
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By David Losh @ 8:
Wow. The lease was the best part of the deal, but the client had to worry about being sued by the landlord? An attorney suing you would love to hear you say that in a deposition. It makes no sense.
If the lease was such a great deal, the landlord would probably have been glad to see the lease terminate. I once had a restaurant case where the buyer paid over $150,000, mainly because the lease was such a great deal. They shut down the restaurant that was there and started an entirely new type of restaurant. The landlord would have probably paid money to terminate that lease. They did pay a lot in attorney fees trying to terminate it.
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By David Losh @ 9:
Another thing the attorney suing you would love to hear you say in a deposition. And if the seller heard of these facts, the reason you would be sued. Seller’s remorse.
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RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 114 – RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 112 –
You are making a case based on other cases that have no bearing here.
You start with “David, you don’t know what you’re talking about,” then go on to make random comments.
Well, the fact is I did do it, the land lord was grateful, the client was grateful, and I over paid for that privledge. The person who bought the place from me made money out of the gate, because I left a fair amount of money on the table.
I always over pay, because I have more money than brains.
Now how does that work in your liability thinking? I give money away and some how you jump to fraud, and liability.
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RE: David Losh @ 115 – You paid a dollar!
And those are not random comments. They only seem random to you because you still don’t realize what you did wrong. You placed your broker at incredible risk. They clearly were not providing enough oversight.
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RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 116 –
If everybody makes money where would the damages be?
You would have to prove damages.
We all looked at the deal, no harm, no foul.
You’re wasting my time again.
Sorry, my fault, I should have never engaged you. I do know better.
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By David Losh @ 117:
Well first, I’m talking about the risk of being sued, and the risk of losing your license. If you’re sued or have a complaint filed against your license, you’ve already lost. Having a judgment entered just makes it worse.
And seriously, you keep saying things which indicate you don’t have a clue! What’s it matter that everyone made money? YOUR CLIENT DID NOT MAKE THAT MONEY! YOU DID! You were representing your client and at some point you decided it was best for your client to sell to you! You then made money off of that occurring.
Have you never heard the term: “Conflict of interest?”
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[...] some will say no.  This question came up recently in a blog post over at http://www.SeattleBubble.com (http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2012/06/29/king-county-home-prices-affordability-1950-q2-2012/). The post noting value changes end with the [...]
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[...] late June’s post where I plotted the long-term trend of inflation-adjusted local home prices, there was some disagreement with my snarky insinuation that zero real appreciation over thirteen [...]
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