September 2012 Case-Shiller Potporri

Before we put away the Case-Shiller data for another month, let’s check in on a few of our alternative charts.

First up, let’s take a look at the twenty-city month-over-month scorecard. Here’s the original post introducing this chart if you’d like more details.

Case-Shiller Home Price Index: # of Cities Experiencing MoM Gains, Losses

2012 had the strongest summer for month-over-month increases since 2005, with five months in a row where 19 or 20 cities were all increasing at once.

Next up, the second derivative. For an introduction to this particular view, hit the original post from March.

Seattle Case-Shiller HPI 1st & 2nd Derivatives

The second derivative has leveled off somewhat over the last six months or so, but as long as it stays positive, the size of price gains are increasing. I expect that it will begin to move back down toward zero as price gains eventually stabilize around 3-5% per year (barring large changes in the mix).

Finally, here’s a look at the number of cities that are experiencing second derivative gains or losses.

Number of Cities Experiencing 2nd Derivative (YoYoM) Gains, Losses

Stronger performance than in 2005, though not as crazy as during the tax credit.

  

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

2 comments:

  1. 1

    “(barring large changes in the mix.)”

    Does that mean you agree with me that C-S is affected by the mix of houses included in the pairs?

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  2. 2
    softwarengineer says:

    You Have a Home Buyer Tax Credit Milestone in 2009

    I’d add a “Pathetic Inventory Milestone” to account for 2011 on.

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