Case-Shiller: Yearly Price Gain Increased Again in October

Let’s have a look at the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to October data, Seattle-area home prices were:

Down 0.2% September to October.
Up 5.7% YOY.
Down 26.3% from the July 2007 peak

Last year prices fell 1.0% from September to October and year-over-year prices were down 6.2%.

Nothing surprising here. Prices tend to fall a bit as the year winds to a close, but this year’s drop is quite a bit smaller than what we saw last year.

Here’s an interactive graph of the year-over-year change for all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities, courtesy of Tableau Software (check and un-check the boxes on the right):

Seattle stayed in the middle of the pack for month-over-month changes in October.

Case-Shiller HPI: Month-to-Month

Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of raw index data for all 20 cities.

In October, ten of the twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities gained more year-over-year than Seattle (three more than September):

  • Phoenix at +21.7%
  • Detroit at +10.0%
  • Minneapolis at +9.2%
  • San Francisco at +8.9%
  • Miami at +8.5%
  • Las Vegas at +8.4%
  • Denver at +6.9%
  • Los Angeles at +6.2%
  • San Diego at +6.0%
  • Tampa, FL at +5.9%

Nine cities gained less than Seattle (or were falling) as of October: Portland, Atlanta, Dallas, Washington DC, Charlotte, Cleveland, Boston, New York, and Chicago. New York and Chicago are the only two cities still falling year-over-year.

Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty cities through October.

Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve cities whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.

Case-Shiller HPI: Decline From Peak

In the sixty-three months since the price peak in Seattle prices have declined 26.3%.

Lastly, let’s see just how far back Seattle’s home prices have “rewound.” As of October: Still basically February 2005.

Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Price Index

Check back tomorrow for a post on the Case-Shiller data for Seattle’s price tiers.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 12.26.2012)

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.