Case-Shiller: Yearly Price Gain Increased Again in October

Let’s have a look at the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to October data, Seattle-area home prices were:

Down 0.2% September to October.
Up 5.7% YOY.
Down 26.3% from the July 2007 peak

Last year prices fell 1.0% from September to October and year-over-year prices were down 6.2%.

Nothing surprising here. Prices tend to fall a bit as the year winds to a close, but this year’s drop is quite a bit smaller than what we saw last year.

Here’s an interactive graph of the year-over-year change for all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities, courtesy of Tableau Software (check and un-check the boxes on the right):

Seattle stayed in the middle of the pack for month-over-month changes in October.

Case-Shiller HPI: Month-to-Month

Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of raw index data for all 20 cities.

In October, ten of the twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities gained more year-over-year than Seattle (three more than September):

  • Phoenix at +21.7%
  • Detroit at +10.0%
  • Minneapolis at +9.2%
  • San Francisco at +8.9%
  • Miami at +8.5%
  • Las Vegas at +8.4%
  • Denver at +6.9%
  • Los Angeles at +6.2%
  • San Diego at +6.0%
  • Tampa, FL at +5.9%

Nine cities gained less than Seattle (or were falling) as of October: Portland, Atlanta, Dallas, Washington DC, Charlotte, Cleveland, Boston, New York, and Chicago. New York and Chicago are the only two cities still falling year-over-year.

Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty cities through October.

Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve cities whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.

Case-Shiller HPI: Decline From Peak

In the sixty-three months since the price peak in Seattle prices have declined 26.3%.

Lastly, let’s see just how far back Seattle’s home prices have “rewound.” As of October: Still basically February 2005.

Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Price Index

Check back tomorrow for a post on the Case-Shiller data for Seattle’s price tiers.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 12.26.2012)

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.


  1. 1
    The Tim says:

    S&P took Christmas off too. These weren’t posted until this morning. So for tomorrow: Tiered pricing.

  2. 2

    In the past four reported months, the range for “Seattle” has been within 0.3%. That’s pretty narrow.

  3. 3
    Shoeguy says:

    Oh what the hell, let’s do it! Lets climb back up to a 5:1 home price to income ratio because money works in magical ways in the Pacific Northwest as opposed to the rest of the country!

  4. 4
    softwarengineer says:

    RE: Shoeguy @ 3

    LOL Shoe Guy

    Any stability in today’s real estate market is like bragging that $1,000,000 a day in healthcare fees in an ICU hospital facillity keeping a dead patient barely alive, is an indication he’ll return to health again on his own anyway.

    I hear Freddie and Fannie already got about $200B in our “grandkid’ debt” deficit money to pay down underwater mortgage principles, so the 80% of us tax payers can subsidize the 20% who agreed to the underwater mortgage loans contracts. The QEs have bankrupted the US government too, more real estate deficit welfare cash to keep loan rates at zombie zero levels.

    Meanwhile we’re planning MASSIVE tax increases without fiscal cliff agreement to keep Obamacare barely functional and foreign aid pumped up anyway.

  5. 5

    By Shoeguy @ 3:

    Oh what the hell, let’s do it! Lets climb back up to a 5:1 home price to income ratio because money works in magical ways in the Pacific Northwest as opposed to the rest of the country!

    Quite the response to a flat report, but in any case, if you look at the total decline from peak graph above, apparently money does work better here than in all three other cities. ;-)

  6. 6

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 5 – “all but three other cities.”

  7. 7
    Macro Investor says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 4

    Great comment, SW.

    Yeah, those electric shock twitches fool some people into thinking the patient is alive. Eventually the smell will get through to even the most clueless. Housing is going down over time, as it must — as long as billions of poor people across the globe are willing to take our jobs.

  8. 8

    Six people here apparently don’t like simple facts, and are unable to express themselves. Apparently our country’s education system really sucks.

  9. 9
    ARDELL says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 8

    Kary said: “Six people here apparently don’t like simple facts..” “… apparently money does work better here than in…” “Apparently our country’s education system really sucks.”

    Kary, it’s not that many people are not educated enough to agree with you. It’s that your perspective is backwards…or at least not the ONLY way to look at “it”.

    People’s money does NOT “work better” when it becomes harder to buy a home for their family due to an increase in home prices.

    People’s money does NOT “work better” when the money they saved in a year’s time toward a bigger downpayment, gets sucked up by home price increases that equal all of that money they saved.

    For the people who are renting, the landlord reaped the benefits you are heralding, at the expense of the renter. The “money” did not “work better”. The ASSET worked “better” for the landlord. The tenant who saved $10,000 by renting vs buying is seeing a $15,000 increase in the price of the home they were saving to buy. How do you see that as “money” working “better”?

    The ASSET worked better, and only for those who own a property. Everyone scrimping and saving “money” to buy a home is not feeling like their “money” is working “better” when they view these charts about home price increases.

    There’s always a flip side to “truth”. Sometimes that flip side is not “your” truth. Calling everyone who doesn’t agree with you uneducated just makes you look like the uneducated person in the room who can’t see that there is not only ONE way to look at things, that one way being YOUR way.

  10. 10
    Pegasus says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 8 – I suspect most people have figured out that is pointless to respond to the constant braying of a jackass.

  11. 11

    RE: ARDELL @ 9 – Those could all be good arguments, but they weren’t made. If they can’t form their thoughts into a sentence, then our education system sucks. I think it’s safer to assume there are at least six morons who read this site.

  12. 12

    RE: Pegasus @ 10 – That you admitted troll.

  13. 13
    ARDELL says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 12

    Kary said: “then our education system sucks.”

    Why do you assume that people who read real estate blogs to do their due diligence and gather information were educated here, or in the English language as their primary language?

    Given Real Estate matters are not even part of “our education system”, people expressing their thoughts as “thumbs down” should hold some meaning for you. As a lawyer you may have used words as the only way to communicate. In real estate, your new chosen field, you need to expand your viewpoint even if that weakens your vantage point.

    My research indicates that roughly 2/3rds or more of people who read real estate blogs are looking to buy a home. Your comments that received 36 thumbs down in total as I write this, and there are only 12 comments in total to this entire thread so far, should teach you something. Are you ready to learn something in 2013? Let’s make that a goal. :)

  14. 14

    RE: ARDELL @ 13 – I think you’re going a bit far to defend morons.

    First, the post in discussion was clearly a joke, which anyone should understand given the winky face it ended with. If they didn’t like the humor, fine. Otherwise, they are likely morons.

    Second, the post used the term “better” in the same context as the post it was responding to. So even assuming that they took the position that higher is not better, they are still six morons if they didn’t understand that.

    Third, assuming they are not English as a first language, fine, that is possible. But have I ever attacked someone for bad grammar?

    Bottom line: If they can’t string a sentence together, they are morons (unless they simply didn’t like the attempt at humor).

  15. 15
    ARDELL says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 14

    Kary said: “I think you’re going a bit far to defend morons.”

    In the 4 hours since I last counted, while I was out doing a final walk through and key exchange for a closing today, you increased your thumbs down from 36 to 53!!!

    I “think you’re going a bit far to defend”…yourself. Unless you are competing for most thumbs down of the year with Corndog, you might want to try to better understand why you are getting all of these thumbs down instead of calling everyone a moron who is doing that to you.

  16. 16
    Kary L. Krismer says:

    I’m not calling everyone a moron. Only a very specific group of people. Those who cannot understand facts. Those who cannot express themselves, except through a single character. Stupid is as stupid does. That they do it 36 times or more, it does not matter. They are still morons.

    Their silence proves their stupidity.

  17. 17
    Pegasus says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 16 – Hee haw, hee haw, hee haw, hee haw, hee haw!!! What a jackass!!!

  18. 18

    RE: Pegasus @ 17 – Whatever. I really don’t understand why my opinion of what constitutes a moron is controversial. I’m not saying someone who simply disagrees with me is a moron. I was pointing to a specific type of post, and this same discussion has occurred here regarding other posts by others.

    Would it be controversial if I said that people who are the last 5% of drivers to turn on their lights in bad weather are morons, because they are too stupid to realize that their lights allow them to be seen?

    It’s my opinion. I also consider them to be cowards too. Is that controversial? Can’t I think that?

    BTW, I don’t think you’re a moron. I’ve described you as being gullible, but I’ve never thought you were a moron.

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