Case-Shiller Tiers: High & Low Tier Begin Seasonal Decline

Case-Shiller Tiers: High & Low Tier Begin Seasonal Decline

Let’s check out the three price tiers for the Seattle area, as measured by Case-Shiller. Remember, Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.

Note that the tiers are determined by sale volume. In other words, 1/3 of all sales fall into each tier. For more details on the tier methodologies, hit the full methodology pdf. Here are the current tier breakpoints:

  • Low Tier: < $256,900 (down 0.4%)
  • Mid Tier: $256,900 – $410,901
  • Hi Tier: > $410,901 (down 0.5%)

First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through October 2012.

Case-Shiller Tiered Index - Seattle

Here’s a zoom-in, showing just the last year:

Case-Shiller Tiered Index - Seattle

The high tier and low tier both fell a bit, but the middle tier actually rose again in this month’s data. Between September and October, the low tier fell 0.5%, the middle tier was up 0.3%, and the high tier lost 0.1%.

Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from January 2003 through October 2012.

Case-Shiller HPI - YOY Change in Seattle Tiers

All three tiers keep improving their year-over-year gains. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of October – Low: +2.1%, Med: +6.8%, Hi: +6.1%.

Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted yesterday, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.

Case-Shiller: Decline from Peak - Seattle Tiers

Current standing is 38.7% off peak for the low tier, 28.7% off peak for the middle tier, and 22.4% off peak for the high tier.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 12.26.2012)

  

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

9 comments:

  1. 1
    softwarengineer says:

    October Was a Good Sales Month In Comparison

    Seems to me we still had good weather [Indian Summer] part of that month….now the chronic long Winter rains….I was going to turn off my Christmas lights yesterday, but it was so cloudy and dark I left them on….its partly cloudy with some sun today!!!!

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  2. 2
    Carl says:

    Seems like all the housing indicators are turning up locally and nationally. If we get through the next 3-6 months without a relapse, the housing market is officially recovering.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  3. 3

    RE: Carl @ 2 – The President just concluded a vacation in Hawaii, and the House is still out. Everything is fine. /sarc

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  4. 4
    Erik Muller says:

    RE: Carl @ 2
    Housing prices are driven up by low inventory. The Notice of Trustee Sales will drive the housing prices back down.
    http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2012/12/03/november-stats-preview-record-low-inventory-edition/

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  5. 5
    softwarengineer says:

    RE: Erik Muller @ 4

    That and the Welfare to the Rich Mortgage Principle Tax Forgiveness for Foreclosures and Shortsales to Fall Off the Fiscal Cliff Tuesday

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgage-debt-forgiveness-tax-break-113400981.html

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  6. 6

    RE: softwarengineer @ 5 – Having an article about that now is rather absurd. The time to worry about that was many, many months ago, because you can’t arrange a short sale or foreclosure in a week.

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  7. 7
    Erik Muller says:

    I see that 7 people don’t agree with my comment. Those who don’t agree, please let me know why you don’t agree. I’d like to hear why you think I’m wrong.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  8. 8
    Macro Investor says:

    RE: Erik Muller @ 7

    I just down voted you because you spell “Eric” with a K, instead of a C. Just kidding :)

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  9. 9
    Erik Muller says:

    Ouch! “k” is the masculine spelling…

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