Posted by: Timothy Ellis (The Tim)

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

10 responses to “March Stats Preview: Fewer Foreclosure Notices Edition”

  1. Marc

    Good Gawd what’s up with the inventory?

    What’s the opposite of a bubble? Whatever it is surely we’re in one for inventory (says the guy who would sell his house except that there’s nothing to go buy).

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  2. softwarengineer

    Think Longterm On Investments Like Seattle Real Estate Or Get Shafted Holding the “Short term Thinking High Priced Low Inventory” Bag Unit

    This March 2013 Atlantic article is a must read for all Bubbleheads:

    Why you ask? Because its the best article I’ve read on the aging Baby Boomer real esatate sell off recently and a good prediction for the the next HUGE price collapse [they say 2020]….hey that’s only 7 years from now [that would be like 2000 was to 2007] and IMO it could happen much sooner, especially if Medicare and Social Security take bigger and faster budget hits than planned to date, which I assume is entirely likely.

    Some excerpts from the Atlantic article that made my collar hair stand straight:

    “….“That’s going to hit us,” Nelson says. “Not right now. But my guess is that about the turn of the decade, that number will become a real number. It’s only a few percentage points now, but it’s like a glacier, and if it keeps moving and building and growing, it’s going to be a big number in about 2020.”…”

    “…“It’s romantic for the first 15 years when you’re turning 65 and retired,” he says. “But aging in place among 90-year-olds? 95-year-olds?” Many of these people, he predicts, won’t realize that they can’t mow the lawn or pay for repairs until they’re really elderly, and the market for the their homes has collapsed even further. “My suspicion,” Nelson says, “is that many hundreds of thousands, maybe millions of those households in the 2020s to 2030 and beyond will simply give up the house and walk away.”…”

    Soooooo….much of the reduced listings are “romantic 65 YO retiring” hanging on to their Seattle homes [refusing to sell cheap], hoping to sell when the price “hypothetically” rebounds….

    LOL…..its like lemmings lined up at a disaster cliff, if they wait beyond 2020, its only 7 years from now…..its TOO LATE.

    My advice to Baby Boomers is get it on the market while listings are recently mitigated [even fixer uppers at a lower prices], albeit I bet too, most of these Boomer homes aren’t “turn-key’ or perfect staged granite counter top stand-outs, Hades, these older folks generation are worried about an affordable retirement and making do with what they have [like an avg $50k in savings]….health problems and recent layoffs ESPECIALLY hit this group BAD too, another reason these homes won’t be the “cat’s meow” perfection the higher priced, deep pocket, buyers demand.

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  3. Erik

    RE: Marc @ 1
    I don’t understand what you wrote.

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  4. Erik

    RE: softwarengineer @ 2
    I live in the seattle area. I do not buy houses in this area.

    Do you think this has a relationship to Seattle Area realestate? If so, how?

    You are consistently commenting on things outside of seattle real estate. I don’t see the relevance maybe because I am ignorant? Please tell me how this effects Seattle real estate.

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  5. 3rd Generation

    “4. Erik
    April 2, 2013 at 3:26 pm | Permalink

    RE: softwarengineer @ 2 –”

    After a while, you just learn to ignore it (@2). It’s like when the garbage truck rattles into the yard to pick up the cans and take out the trash Just so much noise.

    As far as ignorance goes, well, that would be flattery to most of the un-iformed posters here.

    Increase your ‘ignorance’ filter for these clowns. From time-to-time there are some good points made on this site about the local and outlying areas that have value.

    Not often enough.

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  6. Scotsman

    “Hundreds of thousands of homes in the U.S. are now labeled as “zombie” foreclosures. That’s when the owner of a foreclosed home leaves only to find out years later that he or she still legally owns the home and is on the hook for property taxes and other fees. Such cases occur in more than a third of foreclosures, industry figures show.”

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  7. mike

    RE: softwarengineer @ 2 – Main caveat with this is it’s not going to be evenly distributed across markets, or even within a single market.

    Neighborhoods developed in the 1970’s-80s with a lot of original owners when this wave hits will have more inventory. Older neighborhoods that have already turned over won’t. Newer neighborhoods people want to stay in won’t see much effect.

    Geographically inconvenient neighborhoods will see a drop in demand, regardless of age.

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  8. softwarengineer

    RE: Erik @ 4

    LOL Erik

    You comment with no proof, just your opinion. I don’t.

    Read up before you “errantly” shoot from the hip to criticize SWE:

    “…Frances Taylor was 93 when she took out a high-cost, high-interest mortgage against her home of more than four decades. Within months, her lender foreclosed, making her one of an estimated 2.2 million subprime borrowers expected to lose their homes by the end of next year.

    If Taylor seems a far cry from the average subprime borrower — typically portrayed as a young, first-time homebuyer with bad credit — think again.

    More than one in three borrowers in King County who got loans from the same lender that foreclosed on Taylor were 50 or older,…”

    Now the perma-bull-headed real estate folks can down thumb me “just because”, its humorous :-)

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  9. mike

    RE: softwarengineer @ 8 – According to the KC records, this woman took out 11 mortgages in the 5 years prior to the foreclosure…

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  10. Erik

    RE: softwarengineer @ 8
    Like I said, maybe you are just advanced and i’m basic. It is pretty funny you refer to yourself as “SWE” though.

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