Posted by: Timothy Ellis (The Tim)

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

17 responses to “Around the Sound: King & Snohomish Buck Sales Trend”

  1. softwarengineer

    The Last Chart Shows a 6% YOY Drop in SFH Medium Sales Prices in King County

    Fairly hefty price plummet, albeit the first chart [includes condos?] shows a King County sales price increase of [number cut off?].

    I’m wondering if the SFH price decreasing is weather related…LOL

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 1

  2. softwarengineer

    RE: The Tim @ 2

    Yes Tim

    I wonder when it peaked, during last winter’s bad rainy weather….LOL????

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 1

  3. Ira Sacharoff

    When Seattle area real estate had hit bottom in 2011 or 2012, people were saying it would be another twenty years before we’d see the 2007 peak prices again.
    Now, the King County median single family home price is about 5.6% below the 2007 peak. But in South King County, in places like Auburn, Kent, Tukwila, and Federal Way, we’re still down around 15%+ below the peak. Which suggests to me that in places like Greenlake or Kirkland, we’re at or above the peak.
    I’m not suggesting that we’re due for a crash or anything like that, but doesn’t it seem like we’ve gone up too fast too quickly?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 7

  4. Ardell DellaLoggia

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 4

    There will be a correction shortly in areas that have appreciated the most. I am starting to track it on a weekly basis. Will be hard to sort the seasonal change from the bubble deflating change, but am doing seasonal expectation percentages so we can see where the rate of change is lining up with normal seasonal expectation.

    Working on the baselines now, but expect a correction in areas that have had the highest levels of appreciation beginning in 2012.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 3

  5. Blurtman

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 4 – Quiet! Stop saying “Ni!”

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  6. James

    After a bidding war on 718 N 83rd St which allegedly attracted multiple 50K-over cash offers, I’m not holding my breath for a correction just yet.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 1

  7. Christian Wathne

    A correction to the market when 1/3rd + of homes are purchased with cash and the avg down payment for those who do finance is around 20% and there’s less than 2 months supply of homes on the market? ….. I’m not seeing it

    I think the rate of price increases will slow down to a more reasonable level around 3-5% increase per year, but a “price correction” anytime in the near future…. I think not.

    Incomes for the “seattle/eastside area home-buying class” are up over the last 5 years, and interest rates are in the low 3% range….prices in desirable areas still have upwards potential.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 2

  8. Erik's Step Dad

    RE: softwarengineer @ 3 – Are you really wondering, or are you trying to make a joke with an obscure reference to Lennox Scott? Your comment also lacks the requisite link to a Yahoo Finance article…

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  9. wreckingbull

    RE: Christian Wathne @ 8 – I don’t understand your comment. You say near-record low rates are a reason why there is “upwards potential”.

    Would not the opposite be true? If today’s market existed in an environment with higher (read: non-manipulated) rates, I’d be more inclined to agree.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 1

  10. toad37

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 4

    Yes, I sure think so. But, the market can stay irrational… blah, blah, blah… you know the rest. I’ve been renting a year now since I sold my condo, would love to buy, but will wait for some kind of correction or just leave this area all together.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  11. Bill Johnson

    There was a house in phinney ridge that sold for list price with only one offer last week. I have been looking for several years and that surprised me. We would have put an offer in if there were no other offers but it was at the top of our price range. This house had potential but was not turn key, as was the place on 83rd. It was also priced $40,000 higher.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  12. Young Gun

    No one is commenting on how Snohomish County is killing it for YOY price increase (13.3). Maybe Everett doesn’t suck as bad as people say (from an investment standpoint). Pretty cool to see the breakdown on how prices have increased within different counties…

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 2

  13. Christian Wathne

    RE: wreckingbull @ 9
    I can see what you mean…, but what I meant to emphasize when I wrote that “interest rates are in the low 3% range”, was that though prices are near (or above) peak prices, the affordability of a home is much better now than it was back in 2007 because of the low rates. You could be concerned about prices dropping if rates increased, but the fed has made it pretty clear that they intend to hold interest rates low for at least the next couple years.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  14. softwarengineer

    RE: Christian Wathne @ 13

    Whatever Happens

    If the QEs keep buying 0% federal bonds and letting the banks lend it out for like 3-5% pure profit….the low volume stock market is the best place to invest [until it gets saturated with buyers]….ask Buffet.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  15. Blurtman

    RE: softwarengineer @ 14 – Editorial: It is more than troubling to think that incompetent and criminal banks are allowed this privilege, illustrating again what a total joke the US financial system is. Get rid of the middlemen.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 1

  16. softwarengineer

    RE: Christian Wathne @ 8

    Incomes are Up for the Home Buying Class?

    If you’re talking “skin in the game” worker bees; the high priced Seattle area is likely just like all the high priced “NewYork” coastal cities’ home owners. About half of ‘em don’t work. They buy their home for excess change laying around and see nothing wrong with saturating the job market with P/T incomes, overpopulation and slave wages….don’t affect them.

    I’m an engineer in a 2006-2010 150K American job loss from the BLS government data bank, not the BS MSM. Most of the engineers butcher axed in America were automotive and NASA rocket scientists….what do you think I coined the phrase, “I don’t care if they assemble it on the moon, as long as its American engineered”….LOL

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 3

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