Seattle Bubble

News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area.

Seattle Bubble - News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area.

Entries Tagged as 'Northgate'

Weekend Roundup: Empty Condos, Story Updates, & a Rosy Forecast

By The Tim on June 20th, 2009 at 11:57 AM · 35 Comments

Got a few interesting stories for you today.

First up, from the Puget Sound Business Journal: Seattle, Bellevue luxury condominium towers are slow to fill up

Three-quarters of the new condos at five major buildings in Seattle and Bellevue are unsold, leaving developers in a high-stakes battle to unload millions of dollars worth of homes.

The units — at Fifteen Twenty-One, the Four Seasons Private Residences, Olive 8, Bellevue Towers and Washington Square Towers — represent the majority of large condos that have opened here in the past 18 months. In many cases, dozens of pre-sale agreements booked by developers have failed to come to fruition.

County records show just 317 units have recorded closed sales out of the 1,321 offered at these five projects, which is fewer than some of the developers had expected to sell at this point.

The monthly NWMLS stats really don’t give us a complete picture of just how over-supplied the local condo market truly is. I’m still working on compiling the Condo Sales Status Project. There’s a lot of info out there.

You may recall the free advertising given by the Seattle Times to the Thorton Creek condos back in March for their “if you lose your job we’ll pay your mortgage” promotion. Another story about the development in yesterday’s paper contained an interesting bit of information:

Seattle Public Utilities recently completed the stream-restoration channel as part of a new development that brings more than 100 condos, 278 apartments, senior housing, a 14-screen movie theater and more retail space to the North Seattle neighborhood.

Lorig and Stellar Holdings say they’ve rented about 50 of the apartments, which exceeds their goal to date. The market has been slow for the condos, however, with only one unit sold, said Stephen Holt, partner at Lorig in charge of the project.

No word on whether that one sold unit was a result of their big promotional push in March. A representative for the developer has offered to talk with me, but unfortunately I have yet to find room in my schedule.

Here’s another update. Recall the October ‘08 post Former WaMu Pres. Tries to Flip Mansion. As it turns out, he was finally successful: Ex-WaMu exec unloads Seattle mansion

Looks like former Washington Mutual President Steve Rotella has been given a lesson in lost value, sort of like the shareholders who watched their stock tank in the months before the bank collapsed last year.

Rotella and his wife, Esther, just sold their Capitol Hill mansion for $4.7 million, according to King County property records, about $1.5 million less than they listed it for after WaMu failed nine months ago.

We’ll end today’s post on an upbeat note from BusinessWeek.

Two big factors will help bolster Seattle housing prices in the next few years: stringent building restrictions and basic geography.

City officials kept a tight rein on development during the boom. … An isthmus, Seattle is hugged by the Puget Sound on the west and Lake Washington on the east.

With such constraints, Seattle doesn’t have a significant supply of homes on the market.

Some areas of Seattle are on the mend already, with houses even sparking bidding wars.

Building restrictions—and the city’s unique geography—should help lift prices.

It would appear that the writers of BusinessWeek seem to think that the city of Seattle proper is completely insulated from real estate trends in Snohomish County, the Eastside, or south of Lake Washington. Interesting theory. Good luck with that.

(Jeanne Lang Jones & Kirsten Grind, Puget Sound Business Journal, 06.19.2009)
(Michelle Ma, Seattle Times, 06.19.2009)
(Kirsten Grind, Puget Sound Business Journal, 06.18.2009)
(BusinessWeek, 06.18.2009)

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Seattle Times Really Wants You to Buy a House (or a Condo)

By The Tim on March 25th, 2009 at 8:25 AM · 73 Comments

Is it just me, or has Seattle’s only remaining daily newspaper become even more of a blatant real estate advertisement since the P-I folded? Even without a dedicated real estate writer, they have managed to pump out two thinly-veiled real estate promotional pieces in less than a week.

This weekend we’ve got First-time buyers benefit from prices, choices, tax credits

“Right now is just a great time to buy a house,” said [first-time buyer Emily] Yturralde, who took advantage of a zero-down financing program offered by the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs. “There’s just so much available, and the prices and the interest rates are really, really low.”

Besides the [$8,000 "stimulus"] tax credit, a wide selection of inventory and lower prices are also bringing out buyers who couldn’t have afforded entry-level homes in the Seattle area a few years ago.

“I think 2009 is going to be the year of the first-time homebuyers,” [John L. Scott Agent Ben] Hoefer said.

You get the idea. Then today we’ve got a special promotion! Lose your job? No worries, they’ll pay your mortgage (featured as the big above the fold, front page story).

Thornton Place, a big, new project near Northgate with cinemas and a creek, is offering prospective condo buyers a layoff-protection plan in hopes of spurring sales in this sour market.

Buy a condo, the developers say, and if you lose your job within a year they’ll make your mortgage payments for up to six months.

Thornton Place’s 109 condos have been on the market since last summer. None has sold, and now the complex is nearly finished.

“We were looking at what would get people off the fence,” said Jeff Cook, president and chief operating officer of Stellar Holdings, one of the companies building Thornton Place. “We think there’s a pretty big pent-up demand for housing.”

I think it’s interesting that developers and real estate professionals still don’t get the fact that there is little to no “pent-up demand.” During the bubble years, the industry borrowed demand from the future by offering ridiculous dangerous financing. Now the future has come, and that demand is gone because most everyone who may have qualified for a house in 2009 already bought one in 2006.

There’s plenty of fine print in the offer. It’s limited to 27 condos that are the targets of a new marketing campaign that launches this week. They start at $299,950 for a 595-square-foot one-bedroom unit.

Wow. Does this developer really not know why none of their 109 units have sold yet? $300k for 595 square feet? A cursory search of Redfin quickly reveals how ridiculously overpriced these are. For example, just six blocks north you can find five different comparably-sized units on the market at $170-$180k in the Forte Condos building. Dozens of similar examples can be found sprinkled throughout the surrounding neighborhood.

Yikes. I think it’s going to take more than a $15,000 backstop incentive and some free advertising in the Seattle Times to move these pads. Good luck with that.

(Seattle Times, 03.21.2009)
(Eric Pryne, Seattle Times, 03.25.2009)

[Edited to point out the front-page position of the condo story. Thanks for the heads up, Kary.]

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