Seattle Bubble

Here’s the NWMLS press release that accompanied yesterday’s numbers: Pending Sales Up 4.1 Percent From Year Ago, Total Inventory Unchanged

Home sales around Western Washington during September rose 4.1 percent from a year ago, reversing a 19-month pattern of declines. Members of Northwest Multiple Listing Service reported 5,982 pending sales (offers made and accepted, but not yet closed), a gain of 234 transactions from a year ago. The totals cover 19 counties in the MLS service area.

NWMLS data show the last system-wide uptick in pending sales was February 2007 when members reported a 4.8 percent gain from the previous year.

In other key indicators of housing activity, Northwest MLS reported tightening inventory with a double-digit drop in the number of new listings added during September compared to 12 months ago, and total inventory at month end that matched year-ago numbers. Figures also show area-wide softening of prices compared to a year ago.

So the industry-promoted message this month is “focus on the increased sales and flat inventory.”

Let’s take a look at the newspaper writeups about yesterday’s data from the NWMLS. Let’s see how our local reporters did at staying on message.

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Oh man. They let Elizabeth Rhodes take just one day off, and look what happens:

Gahh! It’s right there in giant black print, above the fold on the front page! I can’t imagine the Seattle Times’ real estate advertisers feeling too great about this…

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This month’s theme is “let’s scare fence-sitters by telling them that rising interest rates will eliminate any savings from falling home prices.” Let’s see how well our local papers do at driving this point home.

Read on for the this month’s roundup…

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Before we begin May’s reporting roundup, let’s have a little review of the year so far.

January
Barb Lamoureux, owner and broker with Lamoureux Real Estate in Everett, said the typical slow December market is over. She’s seen signs the market is picking up, including a significant increase in open house traffic and even some multiple offers on properties. Her agents are expecting a busy spring.

February
February housing activity around western Washington signaled signs of an emerging spring market with a noticeable increase in open house traffic, reports of multiple offers and a big jump in pending sales from the previous month.

March
NWMLS director Dick Beeson believes the local market has “reached bottom – or pretty darn close.” Even though inventory continues to grow, Beeson acknowledged, “so does optimism among buyers, sellers and agents.”

April
Spring did start slowly, said Coldwell Banker Bain agent Margo Hass Klein. But she said traffic in the last couple of weeks has increased by at least 10 percent at open houses.

May
“We still haven’t had summer hit us yet as the weather remains cool, wet and cloudy. I expect both temperatures and the market to heat up as summer approaches,” commented Dick Beeson, broker/owner at Windermere/Commencement Associates in Tacoma. “Open house traffic is picking up and buyers are coming off the sidelines to make buying decisions.”

I’m starting to wonder if maybe, just maybe “open house traffic” isn’t quite the best measure of real estate market health.

Read on for the this month’s roundup with all the blind real estate agent optimism you can eat.

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Yesterday I predicted that the local reporting would focus on the paltry month-to-month median price increase, backed up by a plethora of quotes from peppy real estate agents. Today’s reporting, for the most part, does not disappoint.

I’m starting to get the impression as I read some of these articles that the reporters are just as amused by agents’ blatant denial as I am. My sarcast-o-meter is detecting a slight hint of intentional irony in the juxtaposition of facts and figures that paint an increasingly drab picture of the market with upbeat comments from local agents that continue to insist that things are getting better every day. Maybe I’m reading too much into it. You be the judge.

Click below for the usual roundup of this month’s reporting.

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I would have posted the reporting roundup on Saturday, but I was out of town for the weekend, and my only Internet access was dial-up (*shudder*). The tone of this month’s reporting isn’t too much different from last month, except that we’ve got a small dose of optimism thanks to a slight spring improvement. Of course, we’ve got still more bottom-calling as well, so that’s fun.

Also, Seattle Bubble gets yet another mention on TV.

Chris Ingalls, KING 5 News: A tale of two first-time Seattle home buyers

Real estate agents say that now is the time to buy in Seattle, especially for first-time home buyers.

But others say the latest data on home sales in the region suggests home prices could fall even more.
…
A recent report on the month of March says that home prices are stable — not dropping — and that means maybe they’ve hit the bottom.

The Northwest Multiple Listing Service, sponsored by the realty industry, says housing prices have stabilized for six months — a signal of the end for falling home prices.
…
But [potential first-time homebuyer Brendon] Duran isn’t convinced that the price drop is over.

“I think we’re content to wait and see what happens,” he said.

Analysts outside the real estate industry aren’t either.

Seattle Bubble, a real estate blog site, uses multiple listing service data to conclude the stabilization in home prices now is seasonal and that “now is not a good time to buy a home in Seattle.”

You can watch video of this report here. It would seem that Seattle Bubble is becoming a go-to source for King 5 News on the local real estate market. It’s good to see at least one news outlet getting quotes from someone other than real estate insiders. Thanks, King 5!

Click below for the rest of this month’s reporting.

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