Checking Up on Goldman’s Bearish 2010 Two-Year Forecast

Readers may recall the following prediction from Goldman Sachs in June 2010: Goldman: Seattle Home Prices to Fall 22% More by 2012 Following their earlier collapse, house prices appear caught in a cross current. On the one hand, there are indications that prices may have bottomed. While alternative house price indices differ in details, they […]

People Stink at Predicting Interest Rates

Last summer we ran a poll that asked the question “When will interest rates first rise back above 6%?” Here are the results of that poll: With the rate for a 30-year fixed currently averaging 3.69%, it’s rather startling that 36% of you believed that interest rates would rise above six percent before the end […]

The Mega Spring Bounce of 2012

In order to quantify just how absurd this year’s spring bounce has been, here are a few charts I generated from the single-family home data on Redfin’s region page for King County: Listings continue to drop through the floor. The selection this year really is abysmal. Meanwhile, listing prices are soaring through the roof. They […]

Bottom-Calling Checkup: Finally Almost There

Full disclosure: The Tim is employed by Redfin. It’s been quite a while since we checked in on the various bottom-calling methods I introduced way back in February 2009, so let’s take a look. First off, here’s the official forecast I made in my wrap-up post: So my personal bottom call for the Seattle real […]