Follow-Up: Anecdotal Evidence

Way back in early September I made a post with the details of two properties in my neighborhood that had recently been put on the market.

The house in question has still not sold, and has now been languishing on the market for over 10 weeks. The price has been dropped from $350,000 to $319,950 (an 8.5% drop), but there have apparently still not been any takers. In my opinion they’re still asking way too much in a painfully obvious attempt to take advantage of the peak, but I’m no expert (which should go without saying). I will keep you posted.

The condo I was watching closed on October 6th, for a total of $280,950—$6,000 (2%) over the asking price. The total length of time from listing to closing for the condo was approximately one month. Apparently this inspired the owner of the neighboring unit because within the past seven days the condo next door (parcel # 8035550060) has gone up for sale, with an asking price of $300,000. I’ll keep an eye on this one as well.

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.


  1. 1
    WAblogger says:


    Please be more objective and do not post such bad examples. Initial asking price of $350 for a 1400sqft house next to SR522 is just wrong.

    I like reading your blog, however, it would be way better if you stay objective.

    For example, I can post another sale in Seattle, where a 1400sqft house on 90th St and Burke Ave went on the market on Fri with asking price of $325.
    On Sat I made an offer (they already had four offers) for $343, and still did not get it.

    Both examples are on the opposite ends on the scale.

    I think it is way better to show examples (stats, aggregates) of the average / median housing for an area.

  2. 2
    The Tim says:


    I don’t mean to come across confrontational or angry, but I would like to address your comments, which I feel are misdirected.

    First off, I chose the two examples completely at random from my immediate neighborhood. It was the first condo and first house I saw for sale when I decided to make the post.

    Secondly, I agree that statistics, aggregates, averages, and medians are a better way to get a feel for the situation as a whole. In fact most of the stories I post are based on just those things. However, this is not one of those posts, which is precisely why I titled the post “Anecdotal Evidence.” Anecdotal in the sense of “based on or consisting of reports or observations of usually unscientific observers.” (M-W)

    Lastly, no one is “objective.” I lay out my biases and pretty much everything about my motivations in writing this blog up front. Yeah, I’m biased. It sucks wanting to be a first-time homeowner and basically being priced out of the market unless I’m willing to do unwise things with my money.

    However, honestly that had nothing to do with the selection of these two properties. It was a random sample. Anecdotal Evidence.

  3. 3
    WAblogger says:

    Probably I was a bit too hard on you – sorry.

    I am in the same shoes as you – I am looking to buy a place and I am frustrated to not being able to find what I want for a price I think is reasonable.

    Does anybody else read this blog?
    If so, please post your thoughts about the bubble level in the Seattle area.

  4. 4
    The Tim says:

    Hey, no worries. Like I said, I’m not angry, just wanted to respond. I wish you well in your quest. It’s not fun trying to buy in a seller’s market.

    As far as other readers go, based on the statistics for the blog, I have the sense that there’s 25-50 people that read this, but since I’ve been on vacation and not updating the last two weeks that’s probably dropped a bit.

  5. 5
    meshugy says:

    Hi all…here’s something I posted on another site:

    I bought a house in the Ballard area of Seattle last May. 4br/2bath/1800sq ft…totally remodeled in perfect condition for $430K. Since then similar houses have been going for $450K-500K. I’ve been watching the market closely and there’s still very little inventory in NW Seattle. Anything decent goes in less then two weeks.

    I’m not sure about the East Side, probably a little different there.

    Over all, I think things have to slow down here. Could even tank for a while, but there does seem to be some truth that Seattle has some qualities that make it more resistant to a crash then other places.

    Thanks for running this site Tim!

  6. 6
    Anonymous says:

    Personally, with the traffic mess we have, I am not suprised that the premium on housing in-city has not gone away. BUt I do see some softening in the Phinney Ridge/Greenwood area ( from my dog walks ) in terms of DOM and price reductions…

  7. 7
    meshugy says:

    BUt I do see some softening in the Phinney Ridge/Greenwood area ( from my dog walks ) in terms of DOM and price reductions…

    I often drive down 80th, through Greenwood/Phinney area. There where half a dozen homes for sale…most of them around for about a month. Many eventually had price deductions signs put up…but in the last week or so they’re all sold! Pretty good for a very busy street…I think buyers are going for one last frenzy for fear of rapidly rising interest rates.

    Anything on a nice quiet street goes fast. Unless it’s an over priced junker, like this one on my street:


    $449K for that??? I’ve been in it….it aint worth it. Even though there’s another little house in the back.

    This is the sort of house in Ballard the gets price reductions. Anything decent sells for list or above.

  8. 8
    Anonymous says:

    hmm, there is a house around 65th and 6th that’s been out there for 6 or weeks with two reductions that’s pretty nice ( legal MIL). ANother one 78th and 6th that started at around $550 this past summer. and is now down to $480. My favorite is house that’s being gutted right down the hill from Greenwood on 80th for $624K. That much money to front on a busy street…sure

  9. 9
    meshugy says:

    you mean this one:


    From my experience over the last year that house is way over priced. It should be in the 400-450k range. Houses that are way, way, way over priced like that are not going to move. I don’t think that’s evidence of a slow down. There’s just too many houses nicer then that going for 450K….

    and this is the other one?


    Again…looks way over priced. 400-450K for that. 480K is too much…houses nicer then that get snapped up every day in Ballard for less then 480K.

    Some sellers have gone beyond the insane prices that have become normal…pricing things so high with the hopes that people are desperate. Obviously it’s not working…there is a limit to what people will pay.


  10. 10
    mogger says:

    Hey people I`m an Aussie, but I check this site out daily as I`d like to get to Seattle one day, can anyone tell me prices of homes in lower income areas, are there cheapies around/fixer uppers?.
    How does Seattle compare to Vancouver?, as a place to live.

  11. 11

    […] cool three hundred thousand, which you will recall is $19,000 more than the unit next door sold for just two months earlier. […]

  12. 12

    […] up, the 8-unit condo/townhome complex in my neighborhood, which we have visited a few times before. Here’s the summary of the action in this complex of eight essentially identical […]

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