1. 1
    synthetik says:

    Marketwatch: Seattle based Plum Creek Timber Co. reported late Monday “a slight drop in its third-quarter earnings as rising profits from its rural properties business was offset by a weaker quarter for its lumber and plywood division as a weaker construction market knocked demand and prices off the record highs seen a year ago.

    “lum Creek, which is organized as a real estate investment trust and is the nation’s largest private landowner…”

    “We believe the strong results of our real estate segment and, to a lesser extent, improving pulpwood markets will result in continued strong cash flow generation and good financial performance in the fourth quarter,” Rick Holley, president and chief executive officer said in a statement.

    NYSE: PCL $35.30


    Weaker construction market? What in bloody heck are they talking about? (Is this the smugness you were talking aboot Mr. Bubble?)

  2. 2
    MisterBubble says:

    Nope. That’s sarcasm. I’m down with that. ;-)

  3. 3
    Nolaguy says:

    CHICAGO (Reuters) – Baby boomers are owning second homes at the same rate as their parents, but they are not flocking to cities from suburbia, defying some expectations and posing problems for some developers, according to a new study.

    Steady demand is good news for the regions most dependent on vacation home purchases. But condominium developers who had been counting on an exodus of baby boomers into cities seeking cultural and other services could suffer, said Gary Engelhardt, senior research director at Syracuse University, who conducted the study.


  4. 4
    synthetik says:

    Two great reasons to snap up that new condotel in Belltown.

  5. 5
    S Crow says:

    Getty Images to consider reducing 10% of staff?

  6. 6
    Deejayoh says:

    Check out the photo on this blog

    I saw this bunch of signs the other day in lower QA and wanted to snap a shot to post here. Looks like someone else did it for me!

  7. 7
    synthetik says:

    >photo on this blog

    I took the same picture a month ago and posted it. That’s only the beginning.

    “Dennis writes:
    Mike –
    AS you make your decision about whether to buy in Seattle right now, I would check out the conversations over at seattlebubble.com. I just went through the same process over the summer, and my decision was to rent for another year. Lots of good facts and figures about the state of the market there.”

    From the link you posted above – more evidence this blog is saving people money.

  8. 8
    synthetik says:

    I spoke to an old friend earlier this evening from my hometown, Tampa. When I went back to see my rents’ last year we hung out and he told me he was in process of building a house… I warned him that we were in the midst of a housing bubble…

    of course he just shrugged me off.

    Here are actual quotes from our conversation earlier:

    “OMG! I can’t believe how much my home has gone up in value and they’re not even done building it!”

    “Wha? I can’t see how prices would ever come down.. people are moving here in droves and this is a very desirable area! They aren’t making any more land.”

    “What I don’t understand is why my builder keeps adding cost upon cost; they’ve gone over $100K over their original estimate. Oh well, doesn’t matter because my loan is $375K and my house is now worth $575K”

    “Also, WHY is my electrician charging me so much? I mean, he’s blue collar! This is highway robbery!”

    “I’ve got a 3 year ARM at 5.75%. No, I don’t know how much it can go up – but I think it’s a half percent a year. Well, I’m not sure… it doesn’t matter anyway because rates will probably stay about the same…”

    “well, if that does happen I can always sell my house, or just make more money at work.” (he may be right, he sells medicare supplements)

    Sound familiar?

    I’m sure you can imagine what I said to him to try to get him to wake up… he is going to “try” to find some time to read up on this idea of a “national housing bubble”.

    While the matrix is often used as a comparison, anyone here ever seen the movie “They Live“?

    Remember the scene (how could you forget!) where Roddy Piper finds the sunglasses that let him “see”? And then he tries to get his buddy to put them on so he can “see” too? Piper has to force the glasses on “Frank”, who won’t put them on, resulting in a 20 minute fight scene.

    Funny thing is that Tampa is firmly in the grip of the bubble now – nothing is selling, they’ve lost 5% of their median and inventory is 150% over last year.

    Still, he cannot “see”.

  9. 9
    Joe Consumer says:

    Synth –

    No offense, but you seem to have really dumb clients and friends. :)

  10. 10
    redmondjp says:

    Synth–thanks for that link! I often think of that movie but couldn’t remember what it was called–I saw it on TV several years ago. Too bad most people refuse to wear the glasses in today’s society. Lots of people (on both ends of the political spectrum) would be shocked at what they would see. But hey, as long as the SUV’s in the driveway of my McMansion, the plasma hangs on the wall and I can keep re-fi’ing my credit card debt away (what’s that? I can’t keep doi . . oh sh__), life’s good, right?

  11. 11
    synthetik says:

    >No offense, but you seem to have really dumb clients and friends

    I wouldn’t take offense… what we have to realize is that most people are NOT free thinkers. This is the only way you can explain why so many seemingly smart people can act so irrational.

    They tend to go along with the herd, group think; otherwise, how can you explain the Holocaust? The Nasdaq in 1999? And even the rampant wearing of the CROCS??

    Other examples of group think: Decision to go to war in Iraq, Bay of Pigs invation, Easter Island (building statues more important than trees, the chief said so, why question him?!)

    The real estate bubble is, of course, the current example of herd mentality. All obvious data that points to a serious problem is dismissed or ignored; only data that reflects their reality is important.

    What about you guys? I’m assuming you are all fairly objective, free thinking, open minded individuals – or you wouldn’t be here. Let me guess — you also question authority too!

  12. 12
    synthetik says:

    >I often think of that movie but couldn’t remember what it was called

    I love everything about that movie… Ah, cheese-a-delic. Trying to get my wife to watch “They Live” was only slightly more successful than getting her to watch “Glengarry Glen Ross”. She fell asleep about 15 minutes faster during Glengarry.

    >dumb friends

    btw, i’m not going to post anecdotes about the ones that are renting or actually got a conventional loan. My best friend lives 25M outside of Wash DC.. he bought in 2001 – got a 30 year fixed < 5%. He could be off the grid in 10 years.

  13. 13
    Lake Hills Renter says:

    Piper has to force the glasses on “Frank”, who won’t put them on, resulting in a 20 minute fight scene.

    Best fight scene ever!

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