About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.


  1. 1
    john_law_the_II says:

    you know what they say, buy low.

  2. 2
    Richard says:

    The most surprising thing to me about this trend is I fully remember how much money was being thrown around at everything during the dot-com boom of the late 90’s – and yet affordability is dropping faster in this relatively meek economic climate.

    Anyone else remember the popular “gifting parties” between 98 and 2000? One of my friends that was most obsessed with gifting back then is now working as a mortgage broker at WAMU… Irony?

  3. 3
    Eleua says:

    What is a “gifting party?”

  4. 4
    Rob Dawg says:

    Wait until the recent Kalifornia equity nomads tuck tail between their legs and scurry back to live with their parents while “restructuring their lives.”

  5. 5
    Richard says:

    It’s a pyramid scheme where people get together and give a selected individual some amount of money (less than $10K each), and then become eligible to receive the next round of “gifts”.

    The lower value parties would gather say 10 people with $500 each – but for example, my GF’s older sister (a checker at the Larrys in Bellevue) participated in one where she received $5,000 each from 7 people!

  6. 6
    msrelo says:

    I had totally forgotten about those parties. My roommate at the time did it and ended up with around $40k in cash. Had I not seen the shoe box full of money I would not have believed it to be true. But as all pyramids do, it collapsed basically leaving his family friendless…

  7. 7
    Lake Hills Renter says:

    Robert, welcome! I’ve enjoyed your blog and your posts on Ben’s blog for a while now. =)

  8. 8
    Rob Dawg says:

    Lake Hills,
    Thanks. I kinda drift. Ben is way too crowded for serious discussion so I’ve cut back.

    Notice that I’ve added a set of Monopoly tophat cufflinks to my profile? I’m not sure if anyone gets the irony.

    Anyway, Seattledoesn’t understand. Yet. We saw the loss of aviation in SoCal and the drop in influx and the cyclical reversion back in ’91. Seattle is gonna get whacked all the while whining that they shouldn’t get whacked as if what’s coming is supposed to be fair. To be honest, anybody that gets so out of touch that they consider a monorail DESERVES whackage. I feel for the majority who are going to suffer but it is the only way to punish the guilty as well.

  9. 9
    Kaleetan says:

    This graph shows me that the best times to buy a house in seattle are the years 1994, 1996, 1999, 2001, 2003.

    It seems like the index rating should bounce back into the 80-90s over the next few years.

  10. 10
    SeattleMoose says:

    Good to see Mr. Cote posting here. I agree, his posts are good insightful. I hope Robert continues to pop in from time to time.

    Well, now that we have all cried “wolf” for over a year, sure enough the wolf is finally here.

    Now the only question is how low will it go…..

    1) CA/FL/AZ – 50% to 60% off peak
    2) Seattle – 30% to 50% off peak
    3) Everywhere else…stay tuned.

    I am of the bear school that believes the way to calculate approximate worth of a house is to go back to 1997 and assume 3% per year for inflation. THAT is what a house should be worth today. Hence, the above predictions.

    Anyone else surprised the stock market rally fizzled before the election?

  11. 11
    Eleua says:

    As long as we don’t get a “Black Monday,” the fix has already done its magic.

    I’ve bulked up so I can lose 20# laughing my ass off when all this craters in Nov.

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