About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.


  1. 1
    Deejayoh says:

    “What Statistics on Home Sales Aren’t Saying”

    From the NYT. Best article explaining what is really going on I have seen in a while


  2. 2
    AndyMiamiBeach says:

    kind of sad no one has commented on this article in NYT.

    although Seattle is not Florida, it’s six months behind and similar reductions will occur..

    Denial in Seattle….

  3. 3
    myTypes says:

    Dear Andy, And real estate market watch experts, Seattle will never be a Florida, or a typical real estate market. Why? Is it because Seattle is #3 on the major city appreciation list? Why, Jobs, and more jobs? It’s a knowledge based economy, and it has the California affect. While Florida is predominately a tourist economy. I have written about this recently on my Seattle Real Estate Blog, trying to understand the real estate bubble. I was part of the Tech Bust, and wanted to not create one in real estate. I don’t want to promote just for promotions sake, it’s important to spread the truth.

    I thank the previous poster about the truth and lack of truth in Statistics. Numbers are easily manipulated, and major news papers, need to sell newspapers to be major:-). So making smart decisions requires research, and usually economies are based on many factors and most important factor based on my assesment is jobs and quality of jobs, and Seattle has many of them.

  4. 4
    Peckhammer says:

    “It’s a knowledge based economy, and it has the California affect.”

    You mean this California Effect:

    Most likely to recede
    The PMI Risk Index measures the likelihood of a price decline over the next two years.

    Metro area | Risk for decline

    Boston, MA 53%
    San Jose, CA 53%
    San Francisco, CA 48%
    San Diego, CA 43%
    Providence, RI 40%
    Sacramento, CA 37%
    New York, NY 36%
    Los Angeles, CA 36%
    Riverside/San Bernardino, CA 32%
    Detroit, MI 27%

  5. 5
    wreckingbull says:


    Can you tell us a little bit about inflation-adjusted wages of all these jobs and how they compare to the growth in home prices? Do they correlate?

    How about some data on population, number of homes, and average family size? This helps to get our heads around supply and demand.

    Please, share the results of all your research.


  6. 6
    Steve says:

    I think the talk about a RE bubble is irrelevant. Houses are probably relatively fairly valued with 5% – 10% based on current interest rates. Yes, some families are over-extended and the morons are financing purchases with option only ARMS or buying plasma TVs with HELOCS.

    The fate of the housing market rests on interest rates. The doomsday scenario? Japan and China decide to diversify out of $s due to lack of confidence in a country unable to control budget and trade deficits. This results in a run on the dollar causing price of imports to soar. This in turn triggers massive inflation forcing the fed to significantly raise interest rates…result: runaway stagflation.

    The impact on housing? Massive price collapses obviously. But then, you will have bigger problems than making mortgage – as in loading up with semi-automative weapons and ammo so you can feed your family and fend of hoardes of depserate people.

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