About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.

17 comments:

  1. 1
    Steve says:

    Where would you live if you had the choice to live anywhere in North America as long as you were within reach of a decent airport?

    I’m a Southern Californian looking to bail out of CA and Seattle and Portland are my choices. However, RE in SEattle is not that much cheaper than Los Angeles and the quality of the homes on the market is very low. I am interested to get a Seattlites perspective on an ideal place to live. I prefer coasts, mild weather with no humidity and good outdoor activity and restaurants. And yes, I know you all dislike Californians…

  2. 2
    Grivetti says:

    I’m a Southern Californian looking to bail out of CA and Seattle and Portland are my choices.

    no humidity?…. ain’t happenin’ here. If jobs aren’t important and you want to live near the coast…

    Well, I’d say hit Portland, Portland’s a cool town, like Seattle if the 90’s hadn’t happened to it…

    Within reach of an airport?..hmmm…

    Santa Fe, NM
    Flagstaff/Sedona, AZ
    Fort Collins, CO
    Bellingham, WA

    If you don’t mind a commuter hop to a hub, your prospects increase three-fold…

    Ashland, OR
    Ruidoso, NM
    Bend, OR
    Wenatchee/Leavenworth, WA

    good luck…

  3. 3
    Terry says:

    Interesting article about housing affordability on Bainbridge Island. It’s relevant. Alot of people think Bainbridge Island is more a part of Seattle than it is part of Kitsap County.
    link to article

  4. 4
    Christina says:

    Vancouver, British Columbia. It’s coastal, in North America, is very close to a decent international airport, has better and cheaper restaurants than Seattle, and skiing, windsurfing, cycling, hiking, snowboarding, paragliding all seem like good outdoor activities to me.

  5. 5
    Richard says:

    Vancouver, British Columbia

    ‘Cept our money doesn’t go too far up there anymore.

  6. 6
    wreckingbull says:

    If this subject is of interest, I suggest reading Rich Karlgaard’s Life 2.0

    His writing is a bit annoying due to his ego, but he has written a pretty good piece on rebooting your livlihood and getting away from big-city, coastal mayhem.

    Second half of the book is a list of interesting towns and cities. Don’t discount flyover country. I lived my whole life in Seattle and it has turned into a place I don’t like anymore.

    This book gave me the kick in the pants I needed to start to process of getting out of dodge while I still have two strong legs.

  7. 7
    john_law_the_II says:

    can I make a suggestion for a topic for seattle bubble?

    can you compare the dec 2005 national housing market news with the dec 2006 news for seattle? I’m interested to see how things compare.

  8. 8
    plymster says:

    Did anyone catch this nugget?

    S&P Cuts Washington Mutual to Hold
    Our downgrade is based on concerns regarding Washington Mutual’s exposure to subprime loans, which have had accelerated default rates of late. Although Washington Mutual’s exposure to these loans has narrowed, they still represent approximately 8% of loans held and 16% of mortgage originations. Our 2006 and 2007 earnings per share (EPS) estimates remain $3.60 and $4.09. However, we are reducing our 12-month target price by $1, to $47, 11.5 times our 2007 EPS estimate, a discount to peers in order to reflect our view of Washington Mutual’s subprime exposure.

  9. 9
    deeplennon says:

    MLS Break Outs are out.

    link

    The bad news for most of us is that seattle proper returned to double digit YOY appreciation after three months of single digit numbers.

    Median condo+res up $5k from October, $425k.

  10. 10
    Matthew says:

    Steve,

    Why not stay in SoCal?

  11. 11
    Nolaguy says:

    If I could live anywhere?

    Top 3 would be:

    Santa Barbara
    Manhattan
    Sonoma/Nappa

  12. 12
    The Tim says:

    John,

    I like that idea. I’ll see what I can dig up. Also interesting would be comparisons with specific markets now in decline.

  13. 13
    Nolaguy says:

    Plymster – good find.

    The credit bubble is starting to pop – and IMO, housing prices will follow.

    Found a great blog today on this very topic. An excerpt:

    “What does this signal? To me it suggests that the subprime lending cycle is history. And if it’s history, then a very large chunk of the nonconforming borrowing seen in 2004, 2005, and most of 2006, will not be repeated in 2007. And if those marginal buyers of housing are removed from the picture, then there is no way properties get much of a bid going forward. This lack of financing aspect shows up in the reasons for cancellations chart and survey below. Subprimer refis will be problematic as well. In straightforward parlance that’s called a credit contraction, the wicked step-sister of a liquidity based expansion.”

    Great stuff for those interested in the credit contraction and how it’s going to play out in the housing market:

    http://wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/winter/?p=157

    This is the main reason that I think the housing bubble is real. And until this credit contraction happens in full swing, we won’t see price declines.

  14. 14
    Steve says:

    Don’t like the strip mall ambience of LA nor the people. And you need $800k for a crack house in a bad neighborhood.

    “Matthew said…
    Steve,

    Why not stay in SoCal?

    Fri Dec 08, 12:50:25 PM PST “

  15. 15
    Matthew says:

    Why not move to San Diego?

  16. 16
    ob says:

    Interesting news related to the bubble for the very NW part of the state.
    http://www.thenorthernlight.com/fp2.html
    Property values nearly double for Blaine and Birch Bay

  17. 17

    […] a suggestion from reader John Law the II, I went searching for news reports from a year ago about the nationwide housing market (quotes C […]

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