Seattle Bubble Forum Highlights

There are lots of great conversations going on over at the Seattle Bubble Forums, why don’t you join in too? Here’s a sampling of what’s going on over there:

These are just a few of the conversations that are going on. So why don’t you head on over and add your voice to the discussion?

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse.


  1. 1
    Chris says:

    bubble media denial recap.


  2. 2
    Eleua says:

    Just a shameless plug for anyone who is interested.

    Institute for Economic Reality issues a CRASH-CON 3 alert.

    We now return you to your regularly scheduled “what, me worry?” lifestyle.

  3. 3
    Eleua says:

    Somebody call an ambulance.

    CNBC just ran a 5 minute piece where they bitch-slapped the notion that real estate is healty all up and down the dial.

    I have it on the DVR.

    Among some of the points they made:

    Sub-prime delinqencies are at 22%. Ponder that for a minute. Better than 1/5 of all the subprime are behind in their payments.

    non-sub-prime delinquencies are at ’01/’02 recession levels (remember, this is a “GOOD” economy)

    The delinquencies are almost all in the ARMs. (Duh!)

    Homebuilde cancellations are north of 40% (yowzer!) Can anyone imagine running a business where you only get paid on 60% of your production (Intel?)

    Hidden inventories – relisting, builder cancellations are NOT counted as inventory, yet inventory is still at a recent high.

    They were still somewhat bullish and said the “outlook was:

    work off inventory in ’07-’08. Dream on. Inventory will build as panic sets in.

    reset ARMs through ’09. OK, we have only just expierienced the very, very leading edge of ARM resets. If this much pain comes from this little, imagine what it is going to be like in 3 years.

    Work off foreclosures in ’08. Again, this assumes a static model and an increasing market. Foreclosures will be as ubiquitous as SUVs and Starbucks retailers.

    They never addressed if the “bird flu” of sub-prime finance will spread to prime finance.

    Still, this is the most responsible bit of journalism that CNBC has done in the entire time I have been familiar with their spew.

  4. 4
    softwarengineer says:


    A friend of mine, who lives in Snohomish County APPEALED his increase. Not only did he win the appeal, they paid him retroactive over payment of back taxes. A tidy $7000 check, not bad at all.

    If you think you’ll get one penny more for your “0% to -0.5% average price decrease in King County [Nov 2005-Nov 2006 data], i.e., home, if the property tax statement is higher, WHAT ARE YOU SMOKING?

    Me thinks the Elite Globalist local “powers to be” are planning more OVERPOPULATION school budgets in the Seattle area and we’re the sacrificial lamb MIDDLE CLASS, i.e., PAYEES for ILLEGAL PROPERTY TAX INCREASES in the Seattle area.

    See a lot of you in property tax appeals court :-)

  5. 5
    SLTO Troll says:

    somehow I think the forums and lack of open threads is making it more difficult for me at least to follow an interesting discussion… and fewer people have posted in the forum than a day on the open thread…

    Might I suggest a front page (in the forum) highlighting the day’s most active threads?

    either that or the open thread back again…

    my 2 cents…

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